Currency trading (Sept. 11th > 15th)

[wasp]

Good morning all,

Wow! What a week, what can I say... we have not had a weekly range that size since May and before that, January. Obviously now that was a beautiful 'double top' and Sterling is just not ready to make new highs just yet.

Not being a news trader I can only assume, with the lack of any other major news that it was caused majoritively by Blair and co. but whatever the news, that was a hell of a drop off and who knows what this week will bring....

In the 'scary?!' thread started a while back, it shows every time in the last 20 years when we have reached near new highs we have followed it by a 5000 pip drop off within the next few months... we'll see... as we are all day traders mostly, it doesn't really matter all that much.

Anyhow, to next week >

9/10/2006 22:45 NZ Terms of Trade Index 2Q (QoQ)
9/10/2006 23:50 JPN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

9/11/2006 05:00 JPN Machine Orders YoY
9/11/2006 08:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY)
9/11/2006 08:30 UK Trade Balance Non EU25 GBP/Mn
9/11/2006 08:30 UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY)
9/11/2006 08:30 JPN PPI Input NSA (YoY)
9/11/2006 08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (YoY)
9/11/2006 08:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP
9/11/2006 12:15 CAN Housing Starts
9/11/2006 15:01 JPN Japan's 4th Q 2006 Employment
9/11/2006 23:50 JPN Domestic CGPI (YoY)
9/11/2006 23:50 JPN Export Price Index (YoY)
9/11/2006 23:50 JPN Import Price Index (YoY)

9/12/2006 01:30 AUS National Aus Bank's Aug Business
9/12/2006 05:00 JPN Consumer Confidence
9/12/2006 08:30 UK CPI (YoY)
9/12/2006 08:30 UK RPI (YoY)
9/12/2006 08:30 UK Core CPI YoY
9/12/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Current Account 2Q (QoQ)
9/12/2006 12:30 CAN New Housing Price Index MoM
9/12/2006 12:30 CAN Int'l Merchandise Trade
9/12/2006 12:30 US Trade Balance
9/12/2006 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
9/12/2006 14:30 UK Leading Indicator Index (MoM)
9/12/2006 14:30 CAN Coincident Indicator Index (MoM)
9/12/2006 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence
9/12/2006 22:45 NZ Retail Sales (MoM)
9/12/2006 23:50 JPN Current Account Total
9/12/2006 23:50 JPN Trade Balance-BOP Basis

9/13/2006 00:30 AUS Westpac September Consumer Conf
9/13/2006 04:00 JPN Tokyo Condominium Sales
9/13/2006 04:30 JPN Industrial Production (YoY)
9/13/2006 04:30 JPN Capacity Utilization
9/13/2006 05:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Min
9/13/2006 06:00 EU German Consumer Price Index (YoY)
9/13/2006 06:00 EU German CPI-EU Harmonised (YoY)
9/13/2006 08:30 UK Jobless Claims Change
9/13/2006 08:30 UK Avg Earnings inc bonus 3M/YoY
9/13/2006 08:30 UK Claimant Count Rate
9/13/2006 08:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths)
9/13/2006 08:30 UK Manu. Unit Wage Cost (3Ms/YoY)
9/13/2006 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
9/13/2006 12:30 CAN Capacity Utilization Rate 2Q)
9/13/2006 12:30 CAN Labor Productivity QoQ 2Q)
9/13/2006 18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement
9/13/2006 21:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate
9/13/2006 22:45 NZ Food Prices (MoM)
9/13/2006 23:30 UK RICS House Price Balance

9/14/2006 04:30 JPN Bankruptcies (YoY)
9/14/2006 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
9/14/2006 08:30 UK Retail Sales (YoY)
9/14/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Labour Costs (YoY)
9/14/2006 12:01 NZ ANZ-Business NZ PMI
9/14/2006 12:30 CAN Manufacturing Shipments MoM
9/14/2006 12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY)
9/14/2006 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
9/14/2006 12:30 US Continuing Claims
9/14/2006 12:30 US Advance Retail Sales
9/14/2006 14:00 US Business Inventories
9/14/2006 22:45 NZ Manufacturing Activity 2Q
9/14/2006 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)

9/15/2006 03:00 NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings
9/15/2006 05:00 JPN Coincident Index
9/15/2006 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index
9/15/2006 06:00 EU EU 25 New Car Registrations
9/15/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
9/15/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance
9/15/2006 12:30 CAN New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM
9/15/2006 12:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY)
9/15/2006 12:30 US Empire Manufacturing
9/15/2006 13:15 US Industrial Production
9/15/2006 13:15 US Capacity Utilization
9/15/2006 13:45 US U. of Michigan Confidence


I put the news up every week but apart from the big ones or the surprise announcements, there seems to be little point IMO.

2 weeks ago we had the busiest economic week for a long time and pretty much nothing happened. Last week we hardly had any yet we moved over 500 pips. I wouldn't say its irrelevant and I'd always have in the back of my mind when Interest rates announcements are due and NFP days are but ohter than that, I'm inclined to forget it all. All news comes out at 9:30 or 10 and then 1:30 or 3pm... remember those times for volitility but certainly don't expect them to be what moves the market also, don't expect it not to move if there is no news. It just seems a much smaller part of the much bigger picture to me.

For now though, back to the weekend and the nurafen (damn guiness :cheesy

 

[hornblower]

looking at last weeks chart
each down wave has been about 150 points
and each correction between 30 and 65 points
will this continue ? or will we trade sideways ? or up
that is the question !!

8600 seems to be the next support

 

[trendie]

NYSE.com says there will be a "moments silence" to commemorate Sept-11th. (9:29-9:30am)
Do you reckon tomorrow will be an ordinary day, or have subdued trading?

Poll: There isnt an option for "Not bovvered - I go where the trend takes me.".

 

[dc2000]

Just my thoughts I dont believe the high for the year is in I do believe the last two weeks price has everything to do with Cable futures if this is the case it should be bourne out with a three day sideways and slightly higher movement ( 40 - 50 pips slight) then I would be looking for a low to buy into

 

[wasp]

I'm with Trendie here that I really couldn't give a rats **** whether we have seen the highs lows or anything else. I too will go with how the trend/market takes me but thought the weekly poll may be interesting.

 

[martin brown]

I put the news up every week but apart from the big ones or the surprise announcements, there seems to be little point IMO.

2 weeks ago we had the busiest economic week for a long time and pretty much nothing happened. Last week we hardly had any yet we moved over 500 pips. I wouldn't say its irrelevant and I'd always have in the back of my mind when Interest rates announcements are due and NFP days are but ohter than that, I'm inclined to forget it all. All news comes out at 9:30 or 10 and then 1:30 or 3pm... remember those times for volitility but certainly don't expect them to be what moves the market also, don't expect it not to move if there is no news. It just seems a much smaller part of the much bigger picture to me.

For now though, back to the weekend and the nurafen (damn guiness :cheesy

wasp,

please keep the news calander on this thread, it can at least add to the discussion.

everyone has their own style, and i'm sure many do trade/scalp the news even if you don't.

2 weeks ago was August (still the summer doldrums), and i dont think there was any big surprises, even NFP was in-line which is very rare!

not all the news is released at the same time each day, and quite often there are officals slated to speak, which can move the markets also.

FWIW, i think this week will be exciting because its the first big news week after the summer.

US Trade Balance, Retail Sales, CPI, Industrial Production & Mich C Sentiment. And thats just the US data this week

I'm sure lots of the big players will return from vaction especially for it, so we are due for some serious volitility.

Oh, it's also options expiration week to boot!!!

imo last week was just an appetizer!

 

[wasp]

wasp,

please keep the news calander on this thread, it can at least add to the discussion.

everyone has their own style, and i'm sure many do trade/scalp the news even if you don't.

2 weeks ago was August (still the summer doldrums), and i dont think there was any big surprises, even NFP was in-line which is very rare!

not all the news is released at the same time each day, and quite often there are officals slated to speak, which can move the markets also.

FWIW, i think this week will be exciting because its the first big news week after the summer.

US Trade Balance, Retail Sales, CPI, Industrial Production & Mich C Sentiment. And thats just the US data this week

I'm sure lots of the big players will return from vaction espcially for it, so we are due for some serious volitility.

Oh, it's also options expiration week to boot!!!

imo last week was just an appetizer!

No problems Martin,

As you say, everyone has their own way and the economic calender is relevant to a point and more so to some than others. It'll stay on but personally, apart from a cursory glance to see if there may be something to cause a fast move, I shall be concentrating more on the chart.

Do hope there will be some big movements this week, we don't trade cable for 15 pip swings thats for sure! :cheesy:

 

[martin brown]

Just my thoughts I dont believe the high for the year is in I do believe the last two weeks price has everything to do with Cable futures if this is the case it should be bourne out with a three day sideways and slightly higher movement ( 40 - 50 pips slight) then I would be looking for a low to buy into

globex specs still massively long cable.

 

[martin brown]

aussie dollar.

interesting expanding triangle pattern.

but which way will she break?

 

[coolTrader]

globex specs still massively long cable.

then I will be looking for shorts :cheesy:

 

[Artigas]

Since most of you are English people. Could somebody tell me what happened last week with cable? From the fundamentals point of view nothing too relevant happened, but cable went down nicely. Was just the Tony Blair speech about leaving PM position next year? Is that so important or just an excuse for active speculation?

This week we will have some relevant economic data about UK. Could this affect the cable in a similar way that Blair but in an opposite direction?

Sorry. I´m a foreigner and a non english speaking person also. Maybe my spelling could result awful for most of you and I must apologise for posting in these conditions but I´m really confused about cable behaviour.

Thank you for your opinions and maybe advice.

 

[martin brown]

Artigas, there was lots of forces in play last week. its not simply about blair's speech, blair was in effect forced to give a statement after several junior ministers resigned.This has lead to in-fighting in the labour government, with Gordon Brown (chancellor of exchequer and PM in waiting) at the centre.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5332206.stm

Thats the newsnoise. But this was really just an excuse to sell-off due to too many dollar bears. Apart from the yen (which was oversold) all the other currencies sold off hard against the us dollar (not just cable).

 

[Artigas]

Thank you Martin. That sounds logical and simple. It was an excuse for shortening the overbought (or not so overbought) majors, except yen.
What do you think that could happen this week? If bears are not encouraged by fundamentals is it possible to see a pullback move?


I don´t know which side to take. I will be watching because TA is not convincing me in this case.

 

[Artigas]

All the technical indicators suggest short positioning but ....

 

[zuke]

Morning all, I have just taken the following trade:

LONG 1.8660
Stop 1.8618
Target 1.8782
R:R 1:3

Lets see if last weeks' magic can carry on this weeek!

Also have a short on USD/SEK from 3458 (Target 2918, SL 3728)and longs on USD/JPY from 116.75(Target 118.33, Stop 116.20) and EUR/JPY from 148.06 (Target 149.23, Stop 147.61)

Here's hoping for a good week for all.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Nice buy on the Yen, Zuke. I spent too long in bed this morning, so I'm standing aside from the Yen for mo but long cable from 8648 s/l 18

 

[trendie]

Vegas hourlies, 24-28-EMA goes LONG. ( 1.8680 )
Coincidentally, hans123, 5-9am range broken to upside.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Made some additional points on that breakout so s/l on main trade to breakeven at 8648

 

[zuke]

Morning all, I have just taken the following trade:

LONG 1.8660
Stop 1.8618
Target 1.8782
R:R 1:3

Lets see if last weeks' magic can carry on this weeek!

Also have a short on USD/SEK from 3458 (Target 2918, SL 3728)and longs on USD/JPY from 116.75(Target 118.33, Stop 116.20) and EUR/JPY from 148.06 (Target 149.23, Stop 147.61)

Here's hoping for a good week for all.

Looks like the magic is still there!

Cable trade currently -5
USD/SEK currently +424!
EUR/JPY - currently +93
USD/JPY - currently + 50

All stops have been moved to b/even apart from Cable trade and I have locked in 250 pips on USD/SEK trade. This could be a great start to the week!

 

[dc2000]

Cable trade currently -5
USD/SEK currently +424!
EUR/JPY - currently +93
USD/JPY - currently + 50

cable losing its lustre??

so far for me today is +50 and +45 on cable