Currency Trading (Nov 6th > Nov 10th)

[trendie]

http://www.gftforex.com/resources/calendar/calendar.asp

Date Time * Source Description Forecast Previous
11/5/2006 21:45 NZ Labor Cost Private Sector QoQ 3Q n/a 0.6%
11/5/2006 22:30 AUS AiG Perf of Construction Index n/a 53.1
11/5/2006 23:30 AUS TD Securities Inflation YoY% n/a 3.1%

11/6/2006 00:30 AUS ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) n/a 0.3%
11/6/2006 08:55 EU German RBS/BME October Services PMI n/a n/a
11/6/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone October Services PMI n/a n/a
11/6/2006 09:00 EU PMI Services (survey) n/a 56.7
11/6/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone October Composite PMI n/a n/a
11/6/2006 09:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 0.7%
11/6/2006 09:30 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) n/a 1.5%
11/6/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) n/a 5.7%
11/6/2006 11:00 EU German Factory Orders YoY (nsa) n/a 14.6%
11/6/2006 13:30 CAN Building Permits MoM -4.5% 8.3%
11/6/2006 15:00 CAN Ivey Purchasing Managers Index 57.0 59.9

11/7/2006 00:01 UK Land Registry House Price YoY n/a 7.71%
11/7/2006 00:01 UK NIESR GDP Estimate n/a 0.4%
11/7/2006 05:30 AUS Foreign Reserves n/a 61.75B
11/7/2006 09:00 EU Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI n/a 52.4
11/7/2006 09:00 EU Bloomberg Germany Retail PMI n/a 52.0
11/7/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) 2.4% 2.4%
11/7/2006 11:00 EU German Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) n/a 7.2%
11/7/2006 11:00 UK BRC October Retail Sales Monitor n/a n/a
11/7/2006 20:00 US Consumer Credit $5.0B $5.0B
11/7/2006 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
11/7/2006 22:30 AUS RBA CASH TARGET 6.25% 6.00%

11/8/2006 00:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence n/a 89
11/8/2006 00:30 AUS Home Loans n/a -1.0%
11/8/2006 00:30 AUS Investment Lending n/a -1.4%
11/8/2006 02:00 AUS Treasury macroeconomics head Martin Parkinson speaks in Sydney n/a n/a
11/8/2006 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index n/a 18.2%
11/8/2006 05:00 JPN Coincident Index n/a 80.0%
11/8/2006 07:00 EU German Trade Balance n/a 11.2B
11/8/2006 07:00 EU German Imports SA (MoM) n/a -0.3%
11/8/2006 07:00 EU German Exports SA (MoM) n/a -0.1%
11/8/2006 07:00 EU German Current Account (EURO) n/a 2.4B
11/8/2006 10:30 UK BRC October Shop Price Index n/a n/a
11/8/2006 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications n/a n/a
11/8/2006 13:15 CAN Housing Starts 215.0K 209.0K
11/8/2006 21:45 NZ Unemployment Rate n/a 3.6%
11/8/2006 23:50 JPN Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) n/a 0.6%
11/8/2006 23:50 JPN Broad Liquidity (YoY) n/a 2.0%
11/8/2006 23:50 JPN Bank Lending (YoY) n/a 1.6%

11/9/2006 00:30 AUS Employment Change n/a 31.4K
11/9/2006 00:30 AUS Unemployment Rate n/a 4.8%
11/9/2006 00:30 AUS Participation Rate n/a 65.1%
11/9/2006 05:00 JPN Eco Watchers Survey: Current n/a 51.0
11/9/2006 05:00 JPN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook n/a 52.8
11/9/2006 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a n/a
11/9/2006 09:00 EU ECB Publishes Nov. Monthly Report n/a n/a
11/9/2006 09:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn n/a -GBP 6733
11/9/2006 09:30 UK Trade Balance Non EU25 GBP/Mn n/a -GBP4230
11/9/2006 12:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 5.00% 4.75%
11/9/2006 13:30 EU ECB's Stark, Noyer, Others Speak at Conference on Monetarism n/a n/a
11/9/2006 13:30 US Trade Balance -$65.8B -$69.9B
11/9/2006 13:30 CAN New Housing Price Index MoM 0.8% 1.5%
11/9/2006 13:30 CAN Int'l Merchandise Trade n/a C$4.2
11/9/2006 13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) n/a 2.0%
11/9/2006 13:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
11/9/2006 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
11/9/2006 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories 0.7% 1.1%
11/9/2006 15:00 US University of Michigan Confidence n/a 93.6
11/9/2006 15:30 UK Leading Indicator Index (MoM) n/a 0.2%
11/9/2006 15:30 UK Coincident Indicator Index (MoM) n/a 0.1%

11/10/2006 05:00 JPN Machine Orders (MoM) n/a 6.7%
11/10/2006 05:00 JPN Machine Orders YoY% n/a -0.5%
11/10/2006 11:00 EU Euro-Zone OECD Leading Ind. n/a 109.2

* Times listed are GMT

 

[trendie]

I have abandoned my 2-chart stochs (8,3,3) ( using the 4-hr >50 as trend-up, and <50 as trend-down, and trading pull-backs on the 60-mins ) in favour of Jimmers 1-chart "Slingshot" Stochs(21,4,10) as trend, and stochs(7,3,3) as pull-back entries.)

The entries are generally equivalent, with just a variation of 1 to 3 bar differences for signals.
The benefit of seeing everything in 1 chart is more convenient.

good luck guys for this week.

EDIT: in case you dont know the Jimmer rules.
http://www.dacharts.com/2x.php

 

[trendie]

Nothing new under the sun - Part 2:

I thought the Jimmer seemed familiar! Linda Bradford Raschkes "The Anti" using Stochs(7,4,10)
(%K=7, %D =10, smoothing=4)

 

[jacinto]

hi,

has anyone used Andrews Pitchforks before? Been playing around with them, and seem interesting as trend indicators.

Havent really used them for setups yet, but they seem to give decent information on support resistance. Look at Euro chart and how NFP day respects it nicely almost to the pip (could be a coincidence though ).

any comments?


http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/AndrewsPitchfork.asp

 

[rav700]

My thoughts

Well....Not very impressed with the Non-Farm Payroll Revisions.......It was the Bush Farm Payroll as far as I am concearned......I cannot believe he gets away with it you can undersstand them getting it wrong by 5 to 10 % but getting it wrong almost a 150% you must be joking...anyways I could sit here all day talking about this.The main thing is that I didnt get burnt and I am very sorry to hear the board members that got burnt including dear friend chowclown.......

My thought for the week ahead well I see a little head shoulder pattern on the 4hrly charts

Cable will attempt to to complete the right shoulder ie from 1.9011 o 1.9039-41 and then it should be going down down down......where do I see it going to well according to my Technical analysis......I could not be more excited at this point if everything comes true as it fits in with my stochs........This is how

1.4HR Stoch pointing down but are about to turn so that should be the move from 9011 to 9040ish

2.Daily's are pointing down so the overall trend is down so the move to 8950 is definately on the cards and 8900 there after

3. My RSI is still waiting for confirmation but is very close

So My Trade Suggestion would be the following

1.Short @ 1.9035
Stop @ 1.9075
Target 1= 1.9000
Target 2= 1.8970
Target 3=1.8950

If the trade is missed @ 1.9035 or it does not get to this mark which I would be surprised by then your entry should be place @ 1.8970 with a stop loss above at least 55

As I said These are just my thought.....
Happy Trading
Rav

 

[c6ackp]

I agree that the NFP revisions are slightly farcical, but they do create excellent short-term volatility which is no bad thing.

Here's a summary of a EUR/USD study from Currency Trader Magazine, which may be of interest:

Currency characteristics: Euro
Some insights from analyzing the euro from Sept. 1, 2005
to Aug. 31, 2006:
1. The euro’s average daily range was 0.0099, and the
range exceeded 0.0110 only 33 percent of the time.
The range was most often between 0.0060 and
0.0070.
2. The close-to-close change exceeded 0.0080 only 18
percent of the time.
3. Once the euro has traded more than 0.0050 points
below yesterday’s close, there is only a 4-percent
chance it will recover to close higher on the day.
4. Once the euro is up more than 0.0045 points from
yesterday’s close, the odds are less than 10 percent
that it will close lower on the day.
5. The most volatile 60-minute bars were the 07:00
(CT) hour (0.0026-point median range) and the
09:00 hour (23-point median range).

 

[rav700]

Two Trades

One short term:
Trade1
Short@ 1.9019
[email protected]
[email protected]

I have now moved the stop to b\e for this trade just incase

Trade2 Night trade scalp trade
Short@ .9019
Stop@ 1.9049
Target@ 1.8990----This trade was closed @ +10 pips profit as I could not stay awake..

Total Pips=+8
Running Pip Profit=+20 pips ----

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[hornblower]

morning
1st target 8977

 

[ChowClown]

Morning all, short 82. Oanda behaving themselves so far

 

[rav700]

One short term:
Trade1
Short@ 1.9019
[email protected]
[email protected]

I have now moved the stop to b\e for this trade just incase

Trade2 Night trade scalp trade
Short@ .9019
Stop@ 1.9049
Target@ 1.8990----This trade was closed @ +10 pips profit as I could not stay awake..

Total Pips=+8
Running Pip Profit=+20 pips ----

Happy Trading
Rav

I am closing 2nd trade with a profit of +50 pips as I am not confident what might happen after the news

 

[ChowClown]

Morning all, short 82. Oanda behaving themselves so far

stop b/e.

 

[Offshore Trader]

This market is getting infuriating. This is the fourth time in a week that the market has made an opening move of 30+ points only to retrace all the way back. You can guarantee, that the time you take the profit is when it goes on to move 100+

 

[ChowClown]

If 8949 holds as the low for today, i have an hrly chart pattern targeting the 9078 - 9128 zone (not necessarily for today). Any lower than 8944 today and the pattern fails. Today's vebo long order triggers at 9011.

 

[hornblower]

nice run up on the dax this morning for 35 pts
waiting to go short

flat on cable

 

[faro0485]

hello

I see some key levels here on the 1 hour. Ema of 144 went flat, that normally signals a change in trend.

(strange I don't see the chart I uploaded, ah there we go)

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=23498&stc=1

 

[ChowClown]

...inside hourly bar now forming, valid if it doesn't clear 77 (Oanda chart) in the next 5 mins.

 

[ChowClown]

...i'll be long at 84 for a quickie.

 

[City Bound]

Pretty textbook wedge on the 15min.

 

[Offshore Trader]

What a desperate day. With little data and the BOE decision on Thursday there is little to move the market but on the other hand, we could get some steady trends. I hope so. Til tomorrow. Today's P&L 0!

 

[Offshore Trader]

Morning all. No significant data that I can see. Hope we get some movement though