Currency trading (Oct 30th > Nov 3rd)

[trendie]

http://www.gftforex.com/resources/calendar/calendar.asp

Date Time * Source Description Forecast Previous
10/29/2006 21:45 NZ Building Permits MoM n/a 3.6%
10/29/2006 23:50 JPN Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 5.9%

10/30/2006 02:00 NZ Money Supply M3 YoY n/a 15.4%
10/30/2006 04:00 JPN Vehicle Production (YoY) n/a 15.7
10/30/2006 09:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) n/a n/a
10/30/2006 09:30 UK M4 Sterling Lending (BP) n/a n/a
10/30/2006 09:30 UK Net Consumer Credit n/a 0.8B
10/30/2006 09:30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings n/a 9.1B
10/30/2006 09:30 UK Mortgage Approvals n/a 119K
10/30/2006 12:00 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence n/a -28.9
10/30/2006 13:30 US Personal Income 0.3% 0.3%
10/30/2006 13:30 CAN Industrial Product Price MoM -0.6% -0.5%
10/30/2006 13:30 US Personal Spending 0.3% 0.1%
10/30/2006 13:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) n/a 3.2%
10/30/2006 13:30 US PCE Core (YoY) n/a 2.5%
10/30/2006 23:30 JPN Jobless Rate 4.1% 4.1%
10/30/2006 23:30 JPN Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.09 1.08
10/30/2006 23:30 JPN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) n/a -4.3%

10/31/2006 00:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting n/a n/a
10/31/2006 00:30 AUS Private Sector Credit YoY% n/a 14.4%
10/31/2006 01:30 JPN Labor Cash Earnings YoY n/a -0.5%
10/31/2006 01:30 JPN Overtime Earnings YoY n/a 1.3%
10/31/2006 05:00 JPN Housing Starts (YoY) n/a 1.8%
10/31/2006 05:00 JPN Annualized Housing Starts n/a 1.296M
10/31/2006 05:00 JPN Construction Orders (YoY) n/a 10.3%
10/31/2006 05:00 JPN Small Business Confidence n/a 50.1
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Business Climate Indicator n/a 1.46
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence n/a 4
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence n/a -8
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Economic Confidence n/a 109.3
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Services Confidence n/a 18
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) n/a 1.8%
10/31/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate n/a 7.9%
10/31/2006 10:30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey n/a n/a
10/31/2006 11:00 UK CBI October Distributive Trades Survey n/a n/a
10/31/2006 13:30 CAN Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2% 0.2%
10/31/2006 13:30 US Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.9% 0.9%
10/31/2006 15:00 US Consumer Confidence 107.0 104.5
10/31/2006 15:00 US Chicago Purchasing Manager 58.0 62.1
10/31/2006 19:15 US S&P/Case Shiller Home Price YoY n/a 6.7%
10/31/2006 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
10/31/2006 22:30 AUS AiG Performance of Mfg Index n/a 53.5

11/1/2006 00:30 AUS Building Approvals (YoY) n/a 2.1%
11/1/2006 05:00 JPN Vehicle Sales (YoY) n/a -7.4%
11/1/2006 08:55 EU German PMI Manufacturing (survey) n/a 58.4
11/1/2006 09:00 EU PMI Manufacturing (survey) n/a n/a
11/1/2006 09:30 UK PMI Manufacturing (survey) n/a 54.4
11/1/2006 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications n/a n/a
11/1/2006 13:15 US ADP Employment Change n/a 78K
11/1/2006 15:00 US Construction Spending MoM 0.2% 0.3%
11/1/2006 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing 53.5 52.9
11/1/2006 15:00 US ISM Prices Paid 58.0 61.0
11/1/2006 15:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM -0.9% 4.3%
11/1/2006 23:50 JPN Monetary Base (YoY) n/a -21.2%

11/2/2006 00:00 AUS Treasury Secretary Ken Henry Speaks in Melbourne n/a n/a
11/2/2006 00:30 AUS Trade Balance n/a -208M
11/2/2006 00:30 AUS Retail Sales n/a 0.3%
11/2/2006 00:30 AUS Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) 3Q n/a 0.6%
11/2/2006 00:30 AUS Imports n/a 18245M
11/2/2006 00:30 AUS Exports n/a 18037M
11/2/2006 07:00 EU German ILO Unemployment Rate n/a 8.2%
11/2/2006 08:55 EU German Unemployment Change (000's) n/a -17K
11/2/2006 08:55 EU German Unemployment Rate (s.a.) n/a 10.6%
11/2/2006 09:30 UK CIPS/NTC October PMI Construction n/a n/a
11/2/2006 12:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price n/a 0.8%
11/2/2006 12:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates 3.25% 3.25%
11/2/2006 13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 1.5% 1.6%
11/2/2006 13:30 US Unit Labor Costs 3.4% 4.9%
11/2/2006 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
11/2/2006 13:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
11/2/2006 14:30 UK PMI Construction n/a 53.6
11/2/2006 15:00 US Factory Orders 1.4% 0.0%
11/2/2006 22:30 AUS AiG Performance of Service Idx n/a 47.7

11/3/2006 00:00 EU PMI Services (survey) n/a 56.7
11/3/2006 08:55 EU German RBS/BME October Services PMI n/a n/a
11/3/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone October Composite PMI n/a n/a
11/3/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone October Services PMI n/a n/a
11/3/2006 09:30 UK PMI Services (survey) n/a 57.0
11/3/2006 09:30 UK Official Reserves (Changes) n/a -$256M
11/3/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) n/a 2.4%
11/3/2006 12:00 CAN Unemployment Rate 6.4% 6.4%
11/3/2006 12:00 CAN Net Change in Employment 15.0K 16.2K
11/3/2006 13:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 125K 51K
11/3/2006 13:30 US Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6%
11/3/2006 13:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls -3K -19K
11/3/2006 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.3% 0.2%
11/3/2006 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY n/a 4.0%
11/3/2006 13:30 US Average Weekly Hours 33.8 33.8
11/3/2006 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing 54.3 52.9

 

[wasp]

As a few on my watchlist are paired with the dollar it'd be interesting to have a chat about the future of said currency.

As we are all intraday traders mostly, I know we aren't particulary interested in the long term future of the dollar but I think it can only be wise to consider the impact of America's future on cable, and indeed others.

The other day in BigPippins journal he mentioned a headline saying that 'Americas economy worst in 3 years' and the FOMC have no immediate plans to raise rates and fridays figures did them no help at all.

So what does the future hold, at the moment it seems everything is pointing towards $2 and beyond...

 

[wasp]

Dollar slumps on weaker GDP data; off on the week
Greenback at one-month low vs. yen, three-week low against euro

By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar tumbled to a one-month low against the yen and a more than three-week low versus the euro Friday, after a government report showed the U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at a real 1.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from a 2.6% pace in the second quarter and below expectations of an increase of 2%.

Inflation at the consumer level eased. The personal-consumption-expenditure price index increased at a 2.5% annual rate, down from 4% in the second quarter. The core PCE price index -- which removes food and energy costs -- increased at a 2.3% rate, down from 2.7% in the second quarter. See full story.

"Today's GDP report was tailor-made for dollar bears, showing faster-than-expected declines in both growth and core inflation," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York. "This twofold surprise provides the best argument to date against any further [Federal Reserve] rate hike."

Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 117.58 yen, compared with 118.37 yen late Thursday. It had earlier dropped to 117.12 yen, the lowest level since Sept. 27. The euro changed hands at $1.2732, compared with $1.2688, after rising to $1.2749, the highest level since Oct. 3.

On the week, the dollar eased 0.9% against both the euro and yen.

The British pound traded at $1.8961, compared with $1.8909, after touching $1.9002, the highest level since Sept. 26. The dollar fell to 1.2466 Swiss francs, the lowest level since Oct.4. It last traded at 1.2486, compared with 1.2539 francs.

The euro fetched 149.71 yen compared with 150.18 yen. See live foreign-exchange rates.
The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a handful of the world's major currencies, fell to its lowest level since Sept. 26 at 85.43. It last traded at 85.55, down 0.4% from late Thursday.

Key resistance level

David Solin, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics, said the dollar broke through the key resistance level of 118 yen, "which is a pretty negative sign for the dollar overall."
Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said the dollar/yen appeared "more overbought than the other currencies and was due for a sharper correction from a valuation point of view."

Elsewhere, the greenback reacted little to a report that showed consumer sentiment inched higher to 93.6 in late October from 92.3 earlier in the month, according to media reports Friday of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting the index to remain steady at 92.3.

The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday voted to hold overnight interest rates steady at 5.25%. It was the third straight meeting with no change in monetary policy and followed rate increases at an unprecedented 17 consecutive policy-setting meetings. See full story.

This week's retracement "will likely lead to some consolidation for the dollar in the week ahead, especially prior to nonfarm payrolls [due out Friday], the most volatile announcement in the currency market," said Joel Ward, manager of the Joel Nathan ForexFund and president of Learn: Forex.

Softer CPI weighs on yen

Meanwhile, the yen came under some pressure after a report showed Japan's national core consumer-price inflation rose 0.2% year-on-year in September, down from 0.3% in the previous month and below expectations of a gain of 0.3%.

A separate report showed retail sales rose 0.8% in September, compared with media expectations of 1.3% and down from a revised 1.1% in August.

Analysts at Citigroup, looking ahead, said core CPI is likely to slow to 0.1%, mainly due to the decline in oil-related-product prices.

"This outcome is another piece of evidence that the Bank of Japan will have difficulty in tightening monetary policy further by the year end, and as such the weak yen should continue for the time being," said analyst Masafumi Yamamoto, in a note to clients.

Yamamoto added, however, that the CPI is not the only measure of inflationary pressure and "if economic growth continues above trend, as we expect, and the supply-demand conditions continue to improve, the BoJ is likely to resume tightening in January next year."

 

[hornblower]

the fed i think is only holding the dow at this high level
until the November elections are over, and some, and then down we go!

 

[jacinto]

the fed i think is only holding the dow at this high level
until the November elections are over, and some, and then down we go!

Take this with a pinch of salt, and probably as an irrelevant historical event for what is going on now.

In 1994, prior to elections, Greenspan held out from raising rates. In the meeting following, he raised the 50 basis points he needed, plus an aditional 25 surprise rates.

So, I wonder to what extent FOMC either did not change their words, or took action due to upcoming elections.

Just a thought, that again, could be completeley irrelevant.

 

[wasp]

I try to abstain from patterns as they always do the opposite rather well but looking at the daily of cable, we are at the top of a channel and the HnS inverted spoken about last week would push us above highs of last year....

I shall be watching in interest but in the meantime in the immortal words of Jesse from the Fast show....

This week, I shall mostly be trading ZAR!

 

[trendie]

is Gold a 24-hr market?!
been bored with cables rather anaemic start to the week, and noticed my MT-4 Gold charts show 24-hr prices.

 

[eek]

1st day back and long from 9005 . I think I'm on a loser here but the computer says so

 

[ChowClown]

Afternoon all, long too from 9004. Would be nice to see the daily descending triangle on EUR/GBP breached downside today. Have a feeling the 13:30 data will reverse cable for a while but who knows, hopefully b/e by then anyhow.

 

[Priceman]

I just went short from 17... why don't I just follow the trend !? If it passes 24 I'm out and will wait till after the news. Would like to see it pull back 20-30pips before US open then I'll probably go long.

Got to be some people smarting out there with such great upwards moves recently ! They need to come out if it's going much higher.

 

[JER08]

Still long from 8793, the daily downtrend slope from August's capping its rise, perhaps I'll regret not cashing out around this level.

 

[ChowClown]

Afternoon all, long too from 9004. Would be nice to see the daily descending triangle on EUR/GBP breached downside today. Have a feeling the 13:30 data will reverse cable for a while but who knows, hopefully b/e by then anyhow.

..ok, b/e now on the long. V useful action before the news. Pump & dump perhaps?

 

[xx_joray_xx]

Looks To Me That Its Over Bought

 

[JER08]

Pump & dump perhaps?

Very very likely.

 

[wasp]

Nice clean run up on ZAR today....

Simple long at open and 750 pips locked in now

It is so much easier to read and moves more fluidly than cable

 

[ChowClown]

..ok, b/e now on the long. V useful action before the news. Pump & dump perhaps?

Took +17 from this morning's long. Now flat, considering a long re-arm at 004. Watching 5min PA for a while before making a final decision.

 

[ChowClown]

...what's ZAR Wasp?

 

[wasp]

USD and South African Rand

Moves are much cleaner than cable but hefty spreads

 

[hornblower]

we turned our clock back this weekend
did the us turn there clock back at the same time ?
or have I missed it

 

[ChowClown]

Thanks wasp. Must take a look sometime.