Currency Trading (Nov 13th > Nov 17th)

[trendie]

http://www.gftforex.com/resources/calendar/calendar.asp

** Sorry. Site currently unavailable - will update eco-news later. **
EDIT: 11M. Site available.

Date Time * Source Description Forecast Previous
11/12/2006 21:45 NZ Food Prices (MoM) n/a 0.4%
11/12/2006 23:50 JPN Domestic CGPI (YoY) 3.4% 3.6%
11/12/2006 23:50 JPN Export Price Index (YoY) n/a 6.7%
11/12/2006 23:50 JPN Import Price Index (YoY) n/a 17.5%
11/12/2006 23:50 JPN Adjusted Current Account Total YEN1734.0B YEN1605.0B
11/12/2006 23:50 JPN Trade Balance-BOP Basis n/a YEN312.4B

11/13/2006 00:30 AUS Reserve Bank Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement n/a n/a
11/13/2006 04:30 JPN Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 5.1%
11/13/2006 04:30 JPN Capacity Utilization n/a 107.1
11/13/2006 05:00 JPN Consumer Confidence n/a 46.6
11/13/2006 09:30 UK PPI Input NSA (YoY) n/a 5.1%
11/13/2006 09:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) n/a 1.8%
11/13/2006 09:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) n/a 2.0%
11/13/2006 12:00 NZ ANZ Job Vacancies n/a n/a
11/13/2006 19:00 US Monthly Budget Statement -$45.5B -$47.4B
11/13/2006 21:45 NZ Producer Prices-Inputs (QoQ) 3Q n/a 2.7%
11/13/2006 21:45 NZ Producer Prices-Outputs (QoQ) 3Q n/a 2.7%
11/13/2006 23:50 JPN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.2% 0.2%

11/14/2006 00:30 AUS NAB Business Survey n/a 6.0
11/14/2006 07:00 EU German GDP nsa (YoY) n/a 1.0%
11/14/2006 07:00 EU German CPI-EU Harmonised (YoY) n/a 0.2%
11/14/2006 07:00 EU German Consumer Price Index (YoY) n/a 1.2%
11/14/2006 09:30 UK CPI (YoY) n/a 2.4%
11/14/2006 09:30 UK RPI (YoY) n/a 3.6%
11/14/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) n/a 0.9%
11/14/2006 10:00 EU ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) n/a -12.5
11/14/2006 10:00 EU German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) n/a -27.4
11/14/2006 10:00 EU German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) n/a 42.9
11/14/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) n/a 2.7%
11/14/2006 13:30 US Producer Price Index n/a 0.9%
11/14/2006 13:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) n/a 1.2%
11/14/2006 13:30 US Advance Retail Sales -0.3% -0.4%
11/14/2006 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism n/a 52.4
11/14/2006 15:00 US Business Inventories 0.6% 0.6%
11/14/2006 21:45 NZ Retail Sales (MoM) n/a 0.0%
11/14/2006 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
11/14/2006 23:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Confidence n/a 3.9%

11/15/2006 00:30 AUS Wage Price Index QoQ 3Q n/a 1.1%
11/15/2006 00:30 AUS Wage Price Index YoY n/a 4.1%
11/15/2006 00:30 AUS House Price Index QoQ 3Q n/a 3.1%
11/15/2006 04:00 JPN Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) n/a -0.7%
11/15/2006 04:30 JPN Bankruptcies (YoY) n/a 4.4%
11/15/2006 05:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting n/a n/a
11/15/2006 07:00 EU EU 25 New Car Registrations n/a -2.6%
11/15/2006 09:30 UK Claimant Count Rate n/a 3.0%
11/15/2006 09:30 UK Jobless Claims Change n/a 10.2k
11/15/2006 09:30 UK Avg Earnings inc bonus 3M/YoY n/a 4.2%
11/15/2006 09:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) n/a 5.5%
11/15/2006 09:30 UK Manu. Unit Wage Cost (3Ms/YoY) n/a 1.9%
11/15/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) 11.2% 5.4%
11/15/2006 10:30 UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report n/a n/a
11/15/2006 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications n/a n/a
11/15/2006 13:30 US Empire Manufacturing 18.1 22.9
11/15/2006 13:30 CAN New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM -3.0% 2.8%
11/15/2006 13:30 CAN Manufacturing Shipments MoM -1.0% -0.3%
11/15/2006 19:00 US Minutes of Oct. 24 FOMC Meeting n/a n/a
11/15/2006 23:30 AUS Consumer Inflation Expectation n/a 19.0%

11/16/2006 00:30 AUS RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction n/a A$552M
11/16/2006 00:30 AUS Average Weekly Wages (YoY) n/a 3.5%
11/16/2006 00:30 UK RICS House Price Balance n/a 45%
11/16/2006 02:00 NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings n/a 68.0%
11/16/2006 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index n/a n/a
11/16/2006 05:00 JPN Coincident Index n/a n/a
11/16/2006 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a n/a
11/16/2006 06:00 JPN BoJ Monthly Report n/a n/a
11/16/2006 09:30 UK Retail Sales (YoY) n/a 3.2%
11/16/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) n/a 1.7%
11/16/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI-Core (YoY) n/a 1.5%
11/16/2006 11:01 NZ ANZ-Business NZ PMI n/a 50.5
11/16/2006 13:30 CAN Int'l Securities Transactions n/a C$0.335
11/16/2006 13:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) n/a 2.1%
11/16/2006 13:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) n/a 2.9%
11/16/2006 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
11/16/2006 13:30 US Consumer Price Index NSA n/a 202.9
11/16/2006 13:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
11/16/2006 14:00 US Net Foreign Security Purchases n/a $116.8B
11/16/2006 14:15 US Industrial Production 0.2% -0.6%
11/16/2006 14:15 US Capacity Utilization 82.0% 81.9%
11/16/2006 17:00 US Philadelphia Fed. 6.8 -0.7
11/16/2006 18:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index 30 31

11/17/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance n/a -5.8B
11/17/2006 13:30 US Housing Starts 1700K 1772K
11/17/2006 13:30 US Building Permits 1630K 1638K

* Times listed are GMT

 

[FetteredChinos]

afternoon all, first post on the fx boards for a while, but ive been having a bit of a think about a news-trading strategy over the weekend, as was wondering if anyone had done anything similar to this in the past..

basically, rather than the traditional method (ie one that doesnt work because of adverse slippage on entry) of placing straddle orders +/- 20 or so pips just before economic releases and hoping to catch the breakout, how about something along these lines...

before the news, go long the spot price, and short the futures price, or vice versa, it shouldnt matter which way round..

for each order, place a stop of say 30 pips, and a target of 50 pips..

since the trades are placed before the news spikes, there should be no slippage on entry, and so any slippage on exit is likely to be advantageous..

the only times that it will not work are:-

a) if the market does a fake move initially (how often has this happened recently? not that often, from what i have seen)

b) the market gaps more than the target pippage, so that the stops and target get executed atr roughly the same price.. net result 0 pips, give or take..

so, assuming we dont get a fake move, each new-release pair of trafes should net approx 20 pips, with the odd loser on a take move netting -60 pips.. since the latter are so rare (or relatively so) this "should" be a winner IMHO.

i have plucked the stops/targets at random, and im sure they could be researched further, but it was the principle that i was curious about..

data releases such as Initial claims, and NFP tend to be one way spikes of 100pips or more, so these might be the better ones to try this on, but the ISM, and any interest rate decisions could also be potential targets..

anyone any thoughts?

FC

 

[trendie]

one of the problems I have with Hull-MAs, is the fact that the calculations may be complex, to the extent that it may not be possible to use them across different platforms.
Also, it requires the download of a separate indicator.

How about using fast-MAs, such as 5-EMA. But, displaced by 3-bars.
You get the benefit of fast-response of changing direction
And the offset introduces a "breathing" room of a slower-MA.

The chart attached shows 5-EMA-High, and 5-EMA-Low, both offset by 3.

For example: Go long of close above green-line. Stop-and-Reverse an d go short on close of red-line.

All platforms should have EMAs, so you are not restricted to one charting package.

Just thinking aloud.

PS: still interested ideally in plull-backs, hence the Jimmer/LBR stochs.
And ADX to assess ranging markets to avoid whipsaws.

EDIT: credit where its due. I learnt the use of High-Low channels when attending a Jake Bernstein seminar a while ago. (even though the main thrust of the seminar was seasonal trades!! )

 

[Legion]

Legion Buy USD/CHF 1.2367

if your trading it stop 1.2349
I wont be watchin it but a signal has popped on the radar so will not be able to inform exit hence stop given for anyone who may.. you dont wont to be wrapped in any downturn..

 

[dc2000]

Im still looking for Fridays numbers before a turn

 

[FetteredChinos]

morning all.. think im gonna attempt my strategy on cable on the uk numbers at 9.30 today...

will see how it pans out. stops at -30, target at 50...will place positions at about 9.25 i think

FC

 

[rav700]

afternoon all, first post on the fx boards for a while, but ive been having a bit of a think about a news-trading strategy over the weekend, as was wondering if anyone had done anything similar to this in the past..

basically, rather than the traditional method (ie one that doesnt work because of adverse slippage on entry) of placing straddle orders +/- 20 or so pips just before economic releases and hoping to catch the breakout, how about something along these lines...

before the news, go long the spot price, and short the futures price, or vice versa, it shouldnt matter which way round..

for each order, place a stop of say 30 pips, and a target of 50 pips..

since the trades are placed before the news spikes, there should be no slippage on entry, and so any slippage on exit is likely to be advantageous..

the only times that it will not work are:-

a) if the market does a fake move initially (how often has this happened recently? not that often, from what i have seen)

b) the market gaps more than the target pippage, so that the stops and target get executed atr roughly the same price.. net result 0 pips, give or take..

so, assuming we dont get a fake move, each new-release pair of trafes should net approx 20 pips, with the odd loser on a take move netting -60 pips.. since the latter are so rare (or relatively so) this "should" be a winner IMHO.

i have plucked the stops/targets at random, and im sure they could be researched further, but it was the principle that i was curious about..

data releases such as Initial claims, and NFP tend to be one way spikes of 100pips or more, so these might be the better ones to try this on, but the ISM, and any interest rate decisions could also be potential targets..

anyone any thoughts?

FC

Best of luck F.c

 

[ChowClown]

Morning,

Good to see you around again, FC. All the best with the news later.

This morning's orders: Long 9144; Short 9100.

The 15min harmonic from friday has so far come within 5 pips of the 9070-9100 zone, which saw the turn to the 9120-9150 zone (9154 hit 0130 this am). From what i've read though the levels have to be hit precisely otherwise the pattern fails. To be accurate then, i'm still looking for sub 9100 (but not below 9070) for the turn to 9120-9150 and the completion of the bearish set up.

 

[coolTrader]

interesting reverse head and shoulder forming on 5min.. but we have news so.....may just be meaningless

 

[FetteredChinos]

right, short futures @ 1.9108, long spot @ 1.9110

here we go...

 

[FetteredChinos]

damp squib

will let the orders cancel each other out naturally..

 

[coolTrader]

time to go long?

 

[JER08]

Morning all, shorted cable 9113, stop/target open.

 

[Baruch]

Nice BB trade this morning.

 

[zuke]

Morning all, took a nice short at 9138 and hopped of at 9088. Ill let it settle down again before jumping back in.

 

[Baruch]

A fundamental view:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=agWZjKKxD8zY&refer=currency

 

[Baruch]

damp squib

will let the orders cancel each other out naturally..

So how did it work out?

 

[FetteredChinos]

long got stopped out for -30, futures short currently +33 or so..

waiting for it to exit at +50...

 

[Baruch]

long got stopped out for -30, futures short currently +33 or so..

waiting for it to exit at +50...

OK. What was the spread in futures?

 

[Baruch]

Morning all, took a nice short at 9138 and hopped of at 9088. Ill let it settle down again before jumping back in.

Well done (but you closed a little bit early). A Big Ben trade?