Currency Trading (Nov 27th - Dec 1st)

[rav700]

I just thought that I would update the forum this week for Trendie....

11/26/2006 23:50 JPN Corp Service Price (YoY) n/a 0.3%
11/27/2006 09:30 UK BBA Releases October UK Mortgage Lending Figures n/a n/a
11/27/2006 12:00 AUS NBNZ Business Confidence n/a -21.7
11/27/2006 23:50 JPN Large Retailer's Sales n/a 0.8%
11/27/2006 23:50 JPN Retail Trade YoY n/a 0.7%
11/28/2006 01:30 AUS RBA's Richards Speaks on Inflation n/a n/a
11/28/2006 07:10 EU German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey n/a 9.2
11/28/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) n/a 8.5%
11/28/2006 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders -4.0% 8.3%
11/28/2006 15:00 US Consumer Confidence 106.9 105.4
11/28/2006 15:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index n/a -2
11/28/2006 15:00 US Existing Home Sales 6.16M 6.18M
11/28/2006 19:15 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price YoY n/a 5.2%
11/28/2006 21:45 NZ Building Permits MoM n/a 6.1%
11/28/2006 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
11/28/2006 23:50 JPN Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 5.2%
11/29/2006 00:30 AUS Construction Work Done 3Q n/a 3.6%
11/29/2006 00:30 AUS Trade Balance n/a -646M
11/29/2006 00:30 AUS Exports n/a 17692M
11/29/2006 00:30 AUS Imports n/a 18338M
11/29/2006 02:00 NZ Money Supply M3 YoY n/a 13.4%
11/29/2006 04:00 JPN Vehicle Production (YoY) n/a 2.8%
11/29/2006 09:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) n/a n/a
11/29/2006 09:30 UK M4 Sterling Lending (BP) n/a n/a
11/29/2006 09:30 UK Net Consumer Credit n/a 0.9B
11/29/2006 09:30 UK Mortgage Approvals n/a 126K
11/29/2006 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications n/a n/a
11/29/2006 13:30 CAN Current Account (BOP) 3Q n/a $4.2B
11/29/2006 13:30 US GDP Annualized 1.8% 1.6%
11/29/2006 13:30 CAN Industrial Product Price MoM n/a -1.6%
11/29/2006 13:30 US GDP Price Index 1.8% 1.8%
11/29/2006 13:30 CAN Raw Materials Price Index MoM n/a -5.2%
11/29/2006 13:30 US Personal Consumption n/a 3.1%
11/29/2006 13:30 US Core PCE QoQ n/a 2.3%
11/29/2006 15:00 US New Home Sales 1050K 1075K
11/29/2006 19:00 US Fed's Beige Book n/a n/a
11/30/2006 00:30 AUS Retail Sales n/a 0.1%
11/30/2006 00:30 AUS Private Capital Expenditure 3Q n/a 1.1%
11/30/2006 00:30 AUS Private Sector Credit YoY% n/a 14.4%
11/30/2006 05:00 JPN Construction Orders (YoY) n/a 9.0%
11/30/2006 05:00 JPN Small Business Confidence n/a 49.8
11/30/2006 05:00 JPN Housing Starts (YoY) n/a 4.0%
11/30/2006 07:00 EU German ILO Unemployment Rate n/a 8.3%
11/30/2006 08:55 EU German Unemployment Change (000's) n/a -67K
11/30/2006 08:55 EU German Unemployment Rate (s.a.) n/a 10.4%
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Business Climate Indicator n/a 1.42
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence n/a 5
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence n/a -8
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Economic Confidence n/a 110.3
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Services Confidence n/a 21
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) n/a 1.6%
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) n/a 0.9%
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. YoY n/a 2.4%
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Gross Fix Cap (QoQ) n/a 2.1%
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Household Cons (QoQ) n/a 0.3%
11/30/2006 10:00 EU European Commission GDP Forecast n/a n/a
11/30/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Govt Expend (QoQ) n/a 0.5%
11/30/2006 10:30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey n/a -5
11/30/2006 11:00 UK CBI November Distributive Trades Survey n/a n/a
11/30/2006 13:00 EU German IFO Nov. Business Climate Survey by Industry n/a n/a
11/30/2006 13:30 US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1%
11/30/2006 13:30 CAN Quarterly GDP Annualized 3Q n/a 2.0%
11/30/2006 13:30 US PCE Core (YoY) n/a 2.4%
11/30/2006 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
11/30/2006 13:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
11/30/2006 13:30 US Personal Income 0.5% 0.5%
11/30/2006 13:30 CAN Gross Domestic Product MoM n/a 0.3%
11/30/2006 13:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) n/a 2.0%
11/30/2006 15:00 US Help Wanted Index 31 30
11/30/2006 15:00 US Chicago Purchasing Manager 54.8 53.5
11/30/2006 22:30 AUS AiG Performance of Mfg Index n/a 51.9
11/30/2006 23:30 JPN Jobless Rate n/a 4.2%
11/30/2006 23:30 JPN Natl CPI YoY n/a 0.6%
11/30/2006 23:30 JPN Job-To-Applicant Ratio n/a 1.08
11/30/2006 23:30 JPN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) n/a -6.0%
11/30/2006 23:30 JPN Tokyo SA CPI MoM n/a 0.0%
11/30/2006 23:30 JPN Tokyo CPI YoY n/a 0.5%
12/1/2006 05:00 JPN Vehicle Sales n/a -6.2%
12/1/2006 08:55 EU German PMI Manufacturing (survey) n/a 58.2
12/1/2006 09:00 EU PMI Manufacturing (survey) n/a 57.0
12/1/2006 09:30 UK PMI Manufacturing (survey) n/a 53.7
12/1/2006 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate n/a 7.8%
12/1/2006 12:00 CAN Unemployment Rate n/a 6.2%
12/1/2006 12:00 CAN Net Change in Employment n/a 50.5K
12/1/2006 15:00 US Construction Spending MoM -0.1% -0.3%
12/1/2006 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing 52.0 51.2
12/1/2006 15:00 US ISM Prices Paid 50.0 47
12/1/2006 15:00 US House Price Index QoQ n/a 1.2%

 

[rav700]

Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar marched higher on Wednesday and then stabilized at a two-week high. The medium-term outlook is positive, but the market should only consolidate through Friday.

Above the pivotal high as 1.9176, resistance is seen at 1.9260. The next levels follow at 1.9350 and 1.9415.

Initial support comes at 1.9095. Further support follows at 1.9015. It would take a close below 1.8900 to signal a sustained decline, but this is unlikely.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Source:http://www.gftforex.com/resources

 

[rav700]

The Week Gone By


What happened during the week gone by

What we witnessed was most unexpected . Was it? I don’t think so. It was inevitable. Everybody was expecting it but market psyched all because of the time it chose to make yearly highs for other majors against Dollar. The reasons are being cited as many ranging from lower growth forecast from White house, PBOC ( China Central Bank) announcement, Good Euro zone data to thin market condition. But if you see the technicals one may see how the currencies were trapped into trading range during last 6 months. The breakout was inevitable and it happened. Usually the breakout of this nature is violent and big BUT since it has happened during holiday week with poor volume in the absence of big players there is some reason to be cautious and one should not LONG other majors blindly.

What is expected for the next week?

At this time I advise not to get in the overtly bullish mindset. The best course is to either trade a breakout of the highs with tight STOP LOSS or if some retracement occurs, wait for the price to reach the point of falling trendlines ( the earlier point of breakout) and LONG from there with STOPS not more than 50 pips. And be ready to SHORT once a proper reversal signal ( Lower highs and lower lows is seen)

GBP:

Trading Channel: 9360 - 9225 {Try range trading}
Sell below: 9225 for 9135 first target and 9025 second target
Buy above:9360 for 9480 first target and 9550 second target

EURO:
Trading Channel: 3010 - 3125 {Try range trading}
Sell below: 3010 for 2940 first target and 2870 second target
Buy above: 3125 for 3225 first target and 3480 second target

JPY:
Trading Channel: 115.50- 116.80 {Try range trading}
Sell below: 115.50 for 114.40 first target and 113.00 second target
Buy above: 116.80 for 117.40 first target and 118.60 second target

Source: ( A forex group that I am signed up with)

 

[rav700]

Daily Pivots............

R3 1.9598 Open: 1.9152
R2 1.9474 High: 1.935
R1 1.9397 Low: 1.9149
PP 1.9273 Close: 1.932
S1 1.9196
S2 1.9072
S3 1.8995

 

[rav700]

So Now that the thread has been started lets...........start rolling...

Best of luck to all my fellow traders....and I guess would like to say a thankyou for keeping this cable thread going....
Trendie
Leovirgo
Jacinto
Baruch or shall we call him Mr Big Ben
Chowclown
Offshore Trader
Priceman
JEr08

I am really happy that you made your pips last week sadly for me I have not been that well last week hence I missed out on most of the opportunities...
But I am back this week and am raring to go....

What are my trades going to be this week well.....
My target is just a neat 100 pips ....
I shall be starting with my entry order at market opening waiting for the price to come near the 316 mark

First order:
Buy @ 1.9316 ....May wait a bit for a lower price but hopefully a couple of pips here and there
Stop loss@ 1.9270
Target@ 1.9360......

Anyway Happy Trading
Best of luck everybody.....

 

[rav700]

Ig Index quoting 1.9400!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sterile]

Ig Index quoting 1.9400!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

well above now, its flying !!!!

 

[rav700]

well above now, its flying !!!!

115 point up on the open still got 15 mins left......

Might take a short scalp......only one way to find out that is too wait

 

[Sterile]

115 point up on the open still got 15 mins left......

Might take a short scalp......only one way to find out that is too wait

its not open sundays though is it? what am i missing?

 

[jacinto]

115 point up on the open still got 15 mins left......

Might take a short scalp......only one way to find out that is too wait

mmmm, dont know what to say. sounds like it will look like a gap (remember usdjpy several months ago?).

opened platform just to see what you guys are seeing. never open platform on sunday evenings.

good luck if u trade that rav.

edit: cant even get a quote from my broker

 

[jacinto]

its not open sundays though is it? what am i missing?

sydney is open, but cant remember if opening time is 2100 gmt or 22

 

[rav700]

mmmm, dont know what to say. sounds like it will look like a gap (remember usdjpy several months ago?).

opened platform just to see what you guys are seeing. never open platform on sunday evenings.

good luck if u trade that rav.

edit: cant even get a quote from my broker

Thanks mate.....I am not too sure right now but this has blown my long order at 316 out of the window straight away................

With all T.A suggesting overbought status will keep my eyes at the 522 level and may go for a a short at these levels....am really confused right now....

 

[jacinto]

Thanks mate.....I am not too sure right now but this has blown my long order at 316 out of the window straight away................

With all T.A suggesting overbought status will keep my eyes at the 522 level and may go for a a short at these levels....am really confused right now....

hi rav

still cant get a quote. obviously not thinking of a trade. just trying to see if i see a market. i do see prices moving, spreads huge.

my guess is that this will look like a gap.

As far as I knew, Sidney was the first market to open. but dont know the time there. it is the only explanation i can find.

Sounds like it is time to take monday off already and stay sidelined until new york opens

 

[rav700]

its not open sundays though is it? what am i missing?

Ig Index are open on sundays...my friend....

The Financial Dealing Desk opens at 21.00 on Sunday night for Foreign Exchange betting and we start quoting indices and options at 23.00. We are then open 24 hours a day through to 21.15 on Friday night.


Anyone shorting the yen??

 

[rav700]

Sounds like it is time to take monday off already and stay sidelined until new york opens [/QUOTE]

Somehow I seem to totally agree with you This makes forex sense.. :cheesy:

 

[rav700]

I am just studying the charts and boy oh boy the Dollar looks in some serious trouble to me..comments any body

 

[Sterile]

Dunno . I remember a couple of years ago similar thing, it absolutely tanked down to about 1.96 vs Sterling - the talk was all about when, not if, it was going to hit 2.00. It never did though, and was back trading in the high 1.80's within a few weeks.

My only point is I dont think it's possible to say anything with much certainty at the moment.

 

[Bez]

Just had a doodle on cont futures GBP daily chart...

I keep seeing 3 wave patterns over the last few weeks hinting we could be in an Ending diag of some fashion..

Hope you guys dont mind a EW chart on here

 

[jacinto]

Just had a doodle on cont futures GBP daily chart...

I keep seeing 3 wave patterns over the last few weeks hinting we could be in an Ending diag of some fashion..

Hope you guys dont mind a EW chart on here

please do

 

[Bez]

A closer look at the pattern ...