Currency Trading (Oct 9th > 13th)

[ChowClown]

1st short of the day out for a loss; re-armed short, filled and running....

...now at b/e.

 

[Uphios]

I am short from 606, but have a reversal strategy in place just in case.

Retail sales worse than expected, but $ still goes up, what a game!

Glad you mentioned that Jer, I thought it was just me and started doubting if I understood the fundementals at all

 

[Uphios]

So the story this last couple of days is if you set a new record balance of payments deficit and register more unemployed, the DOW hits a new all time high. And if retail sales are worse than expected it is good for the $. I'm gonna have to re-work my strategy!

Poor old Loonie, exceed expectations on car sales and the loonie goes down. Must be better for the economy not to sell cars.

 

[trendie]

memo to self: buy some kevlar gloves to help with my catch-a-falling-knife fixation.

good trades Chow and all. admire your ability to trade in the moment (buys and sells).
I am seeing a broadly up-move, and am only looking for longs.

 

[trendie]

So the story this last couple of days is if you set a new record balance of payments deficit and register more unemployed, the DOW hits a new all time high. And if retail sales are worse than expected it is good for the $. I'm gonna have to re-work my strategy!

Poor old Loonie, exceed expectations on car sales and the loonie goes down. Must be better for the economy not to sell cars.

whats usdcad got to do with cars?!

keep and eye on the elk-burger export figures.

 

[Offshore Trader]

We'll likely to see either 8700 or 8500 later today/monday, there's somtimes explosive actions after narrow range days.

I hope you are right, a test of 8500 today would do nicely

 

[ChowClown]

memo to self: buy some kevlar gloves to help with my catch-a-falling-knife fixation.

good trades Chow and all. admire your ability to trade in the moment (buys and sells).
I am seeing a broadly up-move, and am only looking for longs.

...trying to use both Oanda and CapitalSpreads atm, i'm used to Oanda and have the order form open all the time so re-arming is usually quick and easy - wasn't quick enough on CS though so missed the re-arm there.

 

[DAVIDB75]

Hi David,
Could you elaborate on what your probabilities mean? For example they seem to be saying that the chance of it closing < 1.8601 is 67% and yet the chance of it closing > 1.8635 is 50.4% which is clearly not possible as these are exclusive outcomes which add up to more that 100%! Or are these figures to be taken merely as relative likelihoods? So the chance of it closing < 1.8601 is 67/50.4 times the probability of it closing > 1.8635?

very sorry, a_gnome, my wife was at the door, we had to go! I slipped up. I have just returned
and seen the error.

below are the corrected figues.
close<1.8601 .351 ] implies stay long ?
close>1.8635 .424 ]
close<1.8584 .217 ]

In general, the probablilities will not add up to 100, because between time a (eg. pre-open) and time b (eg close) many targets in both directions can and will be hit. so for today,according to my calculations pre-open, there was an 89% chance of hitting 1.8601 and simultaneously an 88% chance of hitting 1.8584. However they can only be hit in sequence and once some
high(say 8601) is made, the probability of hitting the low (say 8584) collapses somewhat viz. in this case the pbty of hitting both drops to .774, not .787 which might have been expected. I think it only coincidence that the above corrected figures do indeed add to nearly 100..

Since at a certain time I am more interested in what the close is likely to be because I want to go to bed, i looked at the close pbtys. but the highs and lows are still very much in play as follows;
1.8666 .533
1.8635 .97

1.8554 .512 ( transcription error, pre-open should have been .593)
1.8538 .307 (another error, pre-open should have been .44)
1.8524 .217

i have not streamlined the production of these figurest, still a lot of manual composition.

Since i started this post I have just noticed a big red bar being written with a low nearly fulfilling that 51.2% pbty for 8554! (I should have stayed short with my system)

i'm off to bed shortly, not a midnight owl.

 

[Offshore Trader]

memo to self: buy some kevlar gloves to help with my catch-a-falling-knife fixation.
.

There is a danger that you can want to buy a market purely because it has gone down a lot or vice versa. You need deep pockets to run that sort of strategy.

 

[ChowClown]

..some interesting set-ups developing now off the 240s. I'm now short loonie 1349, sl 1390, tgt 1282. Swissy will probably be the next short, a bit further to go yet though.

...bye, bye loonie, stopped at b/e.

 

[JER08]

. You need deep pockets to run that sort of strategy.

Not neccessary, options can be used to reduce risk, but timing is key.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Stop now at 70 which is B/E for the day but expect another move down this afternoon now all the figures out the way

 

[ChowClown]

...here's hoping, OT. 20mins and i'm off for a beer.

 

[eek]

another day where the 3.55 stop makes sense. 7 extra pips and 5 minutes in the pub if I wasn't stuck in the office until 4:30

 

[ChowClown]

...yes, remembered eek time today after i'd posted. Bit of a hairy day, but i won't sniff at 2.7%.

Good weekend all.

 

[trendie]

some slight move to the downside - at last.
go LONG if it hits 1.8575. (still have go-LONG-condition, looking for pull-backs)

close out at 1.8558 for -17.

 

[rav700]

I am short @ 1.8606 with a stop @ 1.8626

I got burnt on the fudamental's today got stopped out on the spike I moved my stop to 30 and it spike thru to 36 hence I lost -24 pips today...................ouch...trust me it did hurt specially when it went in the direction forecasted.................

Hope no one else had any issues with the spike
This week has been an okay week for me I guess not too bad
But did not achieve my pips as forecasted will try harder next week

Best of luck
Happy Trading
Rav

 

[Offshore Trader]

I got burnt on the fudamental's today got stopped out on the spike I moved my stop to 30 and it spike thru to 36 hence I lost -24 pips today...................ouch...trust me it did hurt specially when it went in the direction forecasted.................

Hope no one else had any issues with the spike
This week has been an okay week for me I guess not too bad
But did not achieve my pips as forecasted will try harder next week

Best of luck
Happy Trading
Rav

Got stopped on the spike as well but luckily reinstated the position straight away so made all the pips back and a few more. Without the spike though it would have been a great day. I know what you mean though. If you get stopped out, you really want the market to prove that you were really wrong not just end up doing what you were hoping for. Bad luck. There will be plenty of chances next week

Good weekend

 

[JER08]

Out of short and gong long 8566, let's see what Monday'd bring.

 

[rav700]

Got stopped on the spike as well but luckily reinstated the position straight away so made all the pips back and a few more. Without the spike though it would have been a great day. I know what you mean though. If you get stopped out, you really want the market to prove that you were really wrong not just end up doing what you were hoping for. Bad luck. There will be plenty of chances next week

Good weekend

Your thoughts match with mine exactly welll you win some and you loose some.....

I am currently long on euro @ 1.2507 with a stop @ 1.2493...........Lets see what happens