Currency trading (Oct 16th > 20th)

[wasp]

Back on terra firma and looking for some nice swings and movements from all the markets this week... c'mon cable, biggest weekly swings of the year please


10/15/2006 23:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY)

10/16/2006 02:00 NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings
10/16/2006 04:30 JPN Bankruptcies (YoY)
10/16/2006 12:30 CAN Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)
10/16/2006 12:30 US Empire Manufacturing
10/16/2006 23:30 UK RICS House Price Balance

10/17/2006 04:00 JPN Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY)
10/17/2006 08:30 UK CPI (YoY)
10/17/2006 08:30 UK Core CPI (YoY)
10/17/2006 08:30 UK RPI (YoY)
10/17/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
10/17/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY)
10/17/2006 09:00 EU ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
10/17/2006 09:00 EU German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
10/17/2006 09:00 EU German ZEW Survey (Current Situation)
10/17/2006 12:30 US Producer Price Index (YoY)
10/17/2006 13:00 US Net Foreign Security Purchases
10/17/2006 13:00 CAN Bank of Canada Rate
10/17/2006 13:15 US Industrial Production
10/17/2006 13:15 US Capacity Utilization
10/17/2006 17:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index
10/17/2006 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence

10/18/2006 00:30 AUS Westpac MI Leading Index For August
10/18/2006 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index
10/18/2006 05:00 JPN Coincident Index
10/18/2006 05:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for September
10/18/2006 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
10/18/2006 08:30 UK Bank of England Minutes
10/18/2006 08:30 UK Claimant Count Rate
10/18/2006 08:30 UK Jobless Claims Change
10/18/2006 08:30 UK Avg Earnings inc bonus (3M/YoY)
10/18/2006 08:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths)
10/18/2006 08:30 UK Manu. Unit Wage Cost (3Ms/YoY)
10/18/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Trade Balance
10/18/2006 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
10/18/2006 12:30 CAN Leading Indicators MoM
10/18/2006 12:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY)
10/18/2006 12:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY)
10/18/2006 12:30 US Housing Starts
10/18/2006 12:30 US Building Permits

10/19/2006 01:30 AUS RBA Foreign Exchange Transactn
10/19/2006 08:30 UK Retail Sales (YoY)
10/19/2006 08:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR)
10/19/2006 08:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
10/19/2006 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY)
10/19/2006 08:30 UK M4 Sterling Lending (BP)
10/19/2006 08:30 UK CML, BBA, BSA Mortgage Lending Figures
10/19/2006 12:30 CAN Wholesale Sales MoM
10/19/2006 12:30 CAN Int'l Securities Transaction
10/19/2006 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
10/19/2006 12:30 US Continuing Claims
10/19/2006 14:00 US Leading Indicators
10/19/2006 16:00 US Philadelphia Fed.
10/19/2006 21:45 NZ Visitor Arrivals
10/19/2006 23:50 JPN All Industry Activity Index

10/20/2006 01:30 AUS New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)
10/20/2006 01:30 AUS Export Price Index (QoQ 3Q)
10/20/2006 01:30 AUS Import Price Index (QoQ 3Q)
10/20/2006 02:00 NZ Credit Card Spending (YoY)
10/20/2006 07:00 JPN Convenience Store Sales (YoY)
10/20/2006 08:30 UK GDP (YoY)
10/20/2006 11:00 CAN Consumer Price Index (YoY)

* Times listed are GMT

 

[wasp]

Dollar rises after retail sales, consumer sentiment
Fukui says further rate hike this year can't be ruled out


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar rallied to a fresh ten-month high against the yen and three-month high versus the euro Friday, after solid U.S. consumer data dampened expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates any time soon.

Traders bought the greenback after government reports showed U.S. retail sales, adjusted to exclude autos and gasoline, posted their strongest gain since January last month, while consumer sentiment rose to a 15-month high in October.

"The markets are realizing that pricing in a rate cut was premature and that it's now looking like the U.S. economy was actually quite resilient," said Lara Rhame, senior currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. "The dollar is benefiting from this short-term adjustment of rate expectations."

In New York trading, the dollar was quoted at 119.65 yen, compared with 119.39 yen late Thursday. It had earlier risen to 119.88 yen, the highest level since Dec. 14. The euro changed hands at $1.25, compared with $1.2553, after falling to $1.2481, the lowest level since July 19.
The British pound traded at $1.8559, compared with $1.85. The dollar was also at 1.2747 Swiss francs, compared with 1.27 francs. The euro fetched 149.64 yen, compared with 149.84 yen. See live foreign exchange rates.

Solid consumer data

The recent sharp drop in prices at the gas pump drove the value of U.S. retail sales down by 0.4% in September, the Commerce Department said.

Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 0.5%. Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose 0.6%. However, sales excluding both autos and gas rose 0.8%, marking the biggest increase since January.

Economists had been expecting retail sales to rise about 0.1%, with sales excluding autos expected to fall 0.1%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. "Do not be fooled. The number is not that bad," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at FXCM, of the headline retail figure.

"The jump [in sales excluding gas] was in sporting goods, general merchandise, and clothing ... and tells us that the U.S. consumer is still spending, but being more careful about their big ticket purchases," she said.

"Although this does not shift the Fed's plans to keep interest rates on hold, it does push the prospects of a rate cut even further out, keeping the dollar relatively strong," Lien said.
Separately, consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month in October, reaching its highest level since July 2005, media reports said, citing the University of Michigan. See full story.

Also Friday, the Labor Department said the prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell 2.1% in September, led by a drop in the cost of imported oil.

It marked the first drop since March and was the biggest decrease seen since April 2003. Economists had been expecting import prices to fall 1.3%. See full story.

Yen gains on Fukui comments

The yen initially rallied after a key Bank of Japan official said that the central bank would continue to adjust interest rates gradually and cautiously and that another rate hike can't be ruled out this year.

The Bank of Japan left its key interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, in line with expectations.
Analysts say Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui's comments are important because financial markets had essentially written off the possibility of a further rate increase before the end of 2006.

The yen recently has been battered both by geopolitical concerns stemming from North Korea's nuclear test and by weaker-than-expected economic data.

 

[wasp]

Selective trading

Up till now, I have traded each and every day, rain or shine, public holiday or queens birthday regardless.

Looking through the calender for next week, Monday and Friday looks pretty sparse for monumental news and I'm wondering......... My strat has never taken the news into consideration and I'm certainly not going back through years of data with economic calanders to decifer the good/bad days and what news, if any, came out. Besides, as we all know, cable, and all markets for that matter, can and do the complete opposites and be flat on busy days and drop slowly but surely on the quietest days.

I realise I have kind of answerered my own question here as I type but just wondering what y'all here think? does anyone pay enough attention to movement news/no news and think the days without any are generally worse and therefore financially better not traded, or, do we all think that it can happen regardless so just trade every day.....?

 

[Priceman]

Wasp, hope the holidays went ok and welcome back. Just waiting for the misses to make herself beautiful and thought I'd post a quick reply.

I have been playing around with currency trading now for about a year or so and am really frustrated. Frustrated because I know when I screen watch I can make a minimum of 20 pips a day with ease no matter what the market is doing. When I do try to set and walk away it hits the stop by the exact amount or 1 pip past my level ! I did say a while back I was going to try a month and see what happened, which I can't yet do which makes me more frustrated. So here I am making some pips/ money, then next time I look I'm back to square one! Where have all the clean moves gone (I only trade cable at the mo)?! And with bad news from the USA and still the $ gets stronger, what's that all about?

Anyway, the whole point of my not-so-short reply is... I don't mind what the market is doing because I tend to steal 10pips at a time and then if the move is strong then I'm quids in anyway or out very quickly. Range trading is good coz I can draw the lines in and usually know where it's gonna turn, straight moves of 100+ pips are great no-brainers. I don't specifically like news because as seen on friday the news from the US wasn't good and still the pound tanks !

Ok the trouble and strife is ready.. it's off for a ruby murray we go! Another thought provoking question Wasp, keep up the good work. That's why you're voted 'God' on here and I'm just here to make up the numbers

tara for now, stomach rumbling here...

 

[Quercus]

Hi Wasp,
From my experience, Monday's can often be tightly range bound and very whippy. I tend to leave them alone, unless economic data might indicate action ahead. Another policy I loosely follow, is to be very wary after days of large swings, as again these can also be tightly rangebound. When something moves a long way with inertia, it tends to take a day or so to brush itself off, and re-settle.
None of the above is incorporated into the system that I don't yet follow, but I'm working on that!

Priceman - I have the same trouble - if I watch and wait, I get great exits. If I set and forget (for that read sleep in my bed, 12 hours ahead of you guys!), then I often get taken out to the pip. This actually happened TWICE just last week. I still do not have enough data to guage how regularly this happens, so will watch and wait. I do know that stop sweeping did lead to a revenge trade last week which resulted in a loss of 33pips, and hopefully a lesson learned!
Cheers All
Q

 

[wasp]

Howdo chaps,

Nice compliment Priceman but I think God maybe pushing it slightly! I just follow the flow and take a share of the moves as often as I can... DC on the other hand, picking levels to the pip, thats skill! Mind you, he's an old hand... How many years have you on the rest of us DC? Was it 15 or 20 years experience?!?

In regards to the issue of set and forget and then being stopped out by +1, I'm not sure how anyone can do it? I have to be there at the screen all the time personally. I am a believer in nothing is 100% and although 'in theory' it should do X or Y, I have to be there for the inevitable. Maybe thats just my trading but like yourselves, if I walk away, sods law will jump in my spot and screw me over nicely!

As for the news, I am breaking the old rules and specifically my rules if I don't trade Monday and Friday through lack of news. I know full well just becuase their is no news it does not mean the bugger won't fall through the floor and I'll miss out (been there, done that) as it doesn't always take a few figures to make the difference.

Depending on your style obviously, but if there is a perfect triangle set up and all ready to break, the news will fit around it and it becomes the cause, it was gonna happen anyway, news or not IMO, the news doesn't always make the market...

Take a look at Friday (see att.) the news was bad but still the market went pro dollar... why?... was it because there was underlying factors or, was it because there was strong S/R switch at the highest level or was it due to a pattern setting... I never listen to the news and the figures as IMO, the market will do what it likes and price paints the more important picture. Always.

Just my take on it anyhow..

 

[Priceman]

Chaps (Wasp mainly as it's his baby), we also need to specify what when we set up the weekly currency thread; ie what will go up or down ? Are we talking always of dollar against the rest ? I have just voted and was wondering what I was voting on...

Got the weekly setup levels in place for cable and will be watching closely tomorrow if the next level down is hit (8496). long maybe on the cards for a little while.

Have a good week chaps, as always I'll be watching mostly from the sidelines.

 

[dc2000]

Hi Chaps just popped in to answer PMs and thought my ears were burning

How many years have you on the rest of us DC? Was it 15 or 20 years experience?!?

You saying Im an old dude I wouldn't say I was any more experienced than those that post on these boards regularly just lucky enough to have picked up a few nuggets

 

[wasp]

You saying Im an old dude I wouldn't say I was any more experienced than those that post on these boards regularly just lucky enough to have

Its the pic DC, just makes you look that way

...picked up a few nuggets

Didn't know you traded gold too

 

[rav700]

1st Trade of the week

Good Evening,
I just thought I would commence my trades for this week by posting my first trade on the board

Long @ 1.2503
stop@ 1.2575
Target @ 1.2523

=20 pips target

I hope everyone on the board has a good week....messed up a bit last week hope to target my 100 pips this week let wait and see........

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[dc2000]

Didn't know you traded gold too

always partial to some bullion

Evening Rav Early trade are you trading the asian sesh?

surprised you wern't tempted to wait for 485 and take it for 68 at 553

 

[DAVIDB75]

Good morning again all, an interesting discussion on stops. I don't like working
when I should be asleep so I had to come up with a system that told me to set
orders for the day and leave it alone, (very difficult to leave alone though in practice)
I have tested literally thousands of times for ways to put in protective stops and never found
one yet, at least one that enhanced my reward/risk ratio, rather than lowered it. So generally the
set and forget system goes completely unstopped, quite unnerving at times! One of the reasons I am
focussing on forex (cable in particular) is that the volatility is very low, so even though the headline
returns are far lower (compared to oil say) the risks are way lower again, so the overall reward/risk
ratio is enhanced (according to my attempts anyway). Likewise, not too much harm is likely to come
leaving positions open without protective stops until the morning (I hope)

Anyway my system starts the week short from Friday at 1.8601, and reverses
at 1.8579, if done set a limit reverse at 1.8757

I want to say more about my probability framework, but i have to pick up my daughter
from the airport. She's just coming home from the UK! where she's been fro the last year.



 

[Quercus]

Well, I've just spent a long time looking at many cable charts, and I have to admit that things do not appear too clear for me right now. I feel that we're at support, but the zone is quite wide, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a further test down to around the 1.8450 round number before a bounce back up north. This appears to tie in with a one to one move too, so a body of evidence is before me!
Not a prediction or even an educated guess!
Cheers all and best of luck this week, I'm away from my PC for the week so will not get to see or do much anyway!
Q

 

[Priceman]

Morning all,

Rightmove house price index +2% (-0.6% predicted)... but when did news ever matter

 

[DAVIDB75]

Further to previous post, my system is also reversing from the short at 1.8505 if hit.
(if done, cancel the buystop at 1.8579)

I thought i should try to explain my thinking and preliminary observations
on my probability framework. I have simplified and named the levels and tried
to describe as follows;

Starting probabilities Pre open Oct 16
name price pbty theoretical description

lt2 1.8645 0.378 lt2 is typical later target and the pbty of
retracement collapses significantly.(more confidence
that a uptrend is in place

lt1 1.8614 0.62 lt1 is a typical early (asian session) long target
often followed by retracement


bstop 1.8579 0.893 bstop is a notional buy on stop to enter level


open is typically between bstop and sstop
(but not always)

sstop 1.8563 0.882 sstop is a notional sell to open level


st1 1.8534 0.593 st1 is a typical early (asian session) short target
a retracement or reversal still a strong possibility

st2 1.8505 0.361 st2 is a typical later target and the probabilty of
significant retracement collapses. ie more certainty
a downtrend is in place.

open at 1.8550 (I ignore sunday's bars)

since I started this lengthy tome (apologies), I see that st1 has been hit and a retracement
has ensued, so far so accurate.

since st1 has been hit, i'll re-calculate the framework;

open 1.8850
spike low 1.8522 @03:00 bar
new pbtys


lt2 1.8645 0.18

lt1 1.8614 0.35

bstop 1.8579 0.70

sstop 1.8563 0.885

st1 1.8534 hit already

st2 1.8505 0.64


so the low open and the early low spike has at this stage collapsed the pbtys of hitting
the long targets and enhanced the likelihood of hitting further lows.

one final observation, on Friday night (1pm post),I put the pbty of hitting 8666 at .533 and the pbty
of hitting 8554 at .512, so for around the same risk, i could get twice the pips at that stage (8630), going short.
i need to see this sort of enhanced reward/risk being born out another 100 times
and i will start to think my theory has legs. (and maybe worth staying awake to trade - or else come over there)

see ya later,



 

[DAVIDB75]

sorry about the layout on my tome, I had it all nicely set out ( i thought) and it has been reformatted.
i hope you can make it out . Can reformatting be turned off?

 

[hornblower]

hit 1st target 580,
2nd target 600
next target 634

 

[rav700]

Good Evening,
I just thought I would commence my trades for this week by posting my first trade on the board

Long @ 1.2503
stop@ 1.2575
Target @ 1.2523

=20 pips target

I hope everyone on the board has a good week....messed up a bit last week hope to target my 100 pips this week let wait and see........

Happy Trading
Rav

Target met =+20

 

[rav700]

Target met =+20

80 pips left for the week................ :cheesy:

 

[Offshore Trader]

Long on the breakout from 89 s/l now @79