Currency trading (Aug 28th > Sept 1st)

[wasp]

Bring it on...

After a mixed week, and a damp squib of an anticipated yet pointless speech by Bernanke, we have a news packed week ahead. Tightening varieties of larger frame chart patterns and a market closing in, it could break and break very well this week. It looks promising and my earlier dissapointment fades as I look over next week and the current charts.

The calender is packed solid and there's no mention of the FED anywhere which makes me very happy! Oh and of course, its NFPR week!


8/28/2006 08:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY)
8/28/2006 23:30 JPN Jobless Rate
8/28/2006 23:30 JPN Job-To-Applicant Ratio
8/28/2006 23:30 JPN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY)

8/29/2006 00:00 AUS Conf Board Aus June Leading Index
8/29/2006 06:10 EU German Consumer Confidence Sept
8/29/2006 13:00 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence
8/29/2006 14:00 US Consumer Confidence
8/29/2006 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence
8/29/2006 22:45 NZ Building Permits (MoM)
8/29/2006 23:50 JPN Large Retailer's Sales
8/29/2006 23:50 JPN Retail Trade (YoY)
8/30/2006 01:30 JPN Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)

8/30/2006 01:30 AUS Construction Work Done 2Q
8/30/2006 01:30 AUS Retail Sales
8/30/2006 01:30 JPN Overtime Earnings (YoY)
8/30/2006 03:00 NZ Money Supply M3 YoY
8/30/2006 08:30 UK M4 Sterling Lending (BP)
8/30/2006 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY)
8/30/2006 08:30 UK Net Consumer Credit
8/30/2006 08:30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings
8/30/2006 08:30 UK Mortgage Approvals
8/30/2006 10:00 UK CBI August Distributive Trades Report
8/30/2006 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
8/30/2006 12:15 US ADP Employment Change
8/30/2006 12:30 US GDP Annualized
8/30/2006 12:30 US GDP Price Index
8/30/2006 12:30 US Personal Consumption
8/30/2006 12:30 CAN Industrial Product Price (MoM)
8/30/2006 12:30 CAN Raw Materials Price Index (MoM)
8/30/2006 12:30 CAN Current Account (BOP)
8/30/2006 12:30 US Core PCE (QoQ)
8/30/2006 23:30 JPN Japan August Manufacturing PMI
8/30/2006 23:50 JPN Industrial Production (YoY)

8/31/2006 01:30 AUS Private Sector Credit (YoY)
8/31/2006 01:30 AUS Private Capital Expenditure
8/31/2006 04:00 JPN Vehicle Production (YoY)
8/31/2006 05:00 JPN Annualized Housing Starts
8/31/2006 05:00 JPN Construction Orders (YoY)
8/31/2006 05:00 JPN Housing Starts (YoY)
8/31/2006 06:00 EU German ILO Unemployment Rate
8/31/2006 07:55 EU German Unemployment Change
8/31/2006 07:55 EU German Unemployment Rate (s.a.)
8/31/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
8/31/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Govt Expend (QoQ)
8/31/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Household Cons (QoQ)
8/31/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY)
8/31/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY)
8/31/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Gross Fix Cap (QoQ)
8/31/2006 09:30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence
8/31/2006 11:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates
8/31/2006 12:30 US Personal Income
8/31/2006 12:30 CAN Gross Domestic Product MoM
8/31/2006 12:30 US Personal Spending
8/31/2006 12:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY)
8/31/2006 12:30 CAN Quarterly GDP Annualized
8/31/2006 12:30 US PCE Core (YoY)
8/31/2006 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
8/31/2006 12:30 US Continuing Claims
8/31/2006 14:00 US Help Wanted Index
8/31/2006 14:00 US Chicago Purchasing Manage
8/31/2006 14:00 US Factory Orders
8/31/2006 23:30 AUS AiG Performance of Mfg Index

9/1/2006 01:30 AUS Current Account Deficit 2Q
9/1/2006 05:00 JPN Vehicle Sales (YoY)
9/1/2006 07:55 EU German PMI Manufacturing
9/1/2006 08:00 EU PMI Manufacturing
9/1/2006 08:30 UK PMI Manufacturing
9/1/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate
9/1/2006 12:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
9/1/2006 12:30 US Unemployment Rate
9/1/2006 12:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls
9/1/2006 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
9/1/2006 12:30 US Average Weekly Hours
9/1/2006 13:45 US U. of Michigan Confidence
9/1/2006 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing
9/1/2006 14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM)
9/1/2006 14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM)
9/1/2006 14:00 US ISM Prices Paid

 

[wasp]

Next Fridays close...?

Out on limb for next week and going with 1.9275... :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

Hi Wasp
just back from my ramble I see I didn't miss much last week after Monday

you dont mention the FED minutes above, due out Tuesday which should be a catalyst

your new sig is interesting especially the first line

 

[wasp]

Hey DC, good trip?

Nooooo! I didn't see the FED minutes, damn it... how important are they going to be? I was really looking forward to next week until now!

Quite contradictary in one sense but from a frame of mind view, its perfect for me.

 

[dc2000]

to quote an advert "we is chilled to the bone ya know" very relaxed

how important = crucial IMO

key thought for this week "dont stand on the track when the express train is coming through"

 

[wasp]

to quote an advert "we is chilled to the bone ya know" very relaxed

how important = crucial IMO

key thought for this week "dont stand on the track when the express train is coming through"

Lots happening this week and its about time the market went on a good little trip. I had made a decision not to trade pre and during the FED speeches/announcements, sods law this one will be massive so I may have to go in small, just in case!

 

[dc2000]

my plan at the mo is to take profit on my position prior to minutes then look to join in the European sesh Wednesday I dont mind missing the first 200 as long as I get the rest of the 500 on offer

 

[wasp]

700 pips in a week, sounds great, I'd be happy with half!

 

[dc2000]

700 pips in a week

you been on that mulled wine again, the rest of the 500 on offer would give me 300

 

[wasp]

me! pretty sure post 7 adds up to 700!?

the question is, are you looking up or down?

 

[wasp]

no sorry, it is me, got it now! Damn pinotage... :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

Im looking straight at the screen

 

[wasp]

very good!

Sure you know what I mean...!

 

[dc2000]

Im looking to go higher on the week after an early dip

 

[wasp]

This week last year we had hurricane Katrina and cable moved 650 pips.

Bush has just admitted along with an army official that as hurricane season ensues, the protection around New Orleans is not adequate to withhold 'strong' winds and Ernesto could become another Katrina.

 

[wasp]

Data deluge coming on Ben Bernanke Day

Payrolls, core inflation and FOMC minutes cap a very busy week

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Friday will be Ben Bernanke Day in the Federal Reserve chairman's hometown of Dillon, S.C.
But on Wall Street, it'll be Economic Indicator Deluge Day, with no less than six economic news releases, including the August nonfarm payrolls report and the August manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management.
It'll be one of the busiest weeks for economic news of the whole year, including the release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, revisions to second-quarter gross domestic product, the latest inflation numbers, July spending figures, August consumer sentiment surveys, August auto sales and a look ahead at August's home sales.
It's a good thing the Bond Market Association is giving traders a half day on Friday ahead of the Labor Day weekend; they'll be exhausted, especially if Ernesto strengthens in earnest.
"At the end of the week, we expect that the deluge of data will do little to change anybody's mind" about inflation, growth and the Federal Open Market Committee's next move, said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC.
As of this writing, most economists believe the Fed will hold rates steady at the Sept. 20 meeting, but then raise rates once more this year. The fed funds futures market, however, is pricing in no further upward moves and looks for the first cut in mid-2007.
The crucial nuggets for Fed watchers will be the August payrolls report (including the wage figures), the FOMC minutes and the core consumer inflation figures for July.

Payrolls

The payroll figures will gain the most attention. Economists think job growth accelerated slightly to 130,000 or so in August after four months of tepid growth averaging 112,000. The unemployment rate likely ticked down to 4.7% after a surprising jump to 4.8% in July. The figures will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday.
Payroll growth has been below expectations for four months in a row and in nine of the past 12 months, notes Credit Suisse economist Jay Feldman, who expects a "soft" 100,000 in August.
The housing slowdown is being felt in the labor market, Feldman said. Housing-related jobs have slowed from a trend of about 25,000 per month to declines in three of the past four months, he said. "We expect this weakness will persist or possibly worsen."
Other economists think hiring was a bit stronger.
"Payroll employment growth probably quickened in August," said Brian Jones, an economist for Citigroup Global Markets, who's predicting a gain of 160,000. The hiring occurred in the manufacturing, transportation, financial, health and business services sectors, he said.
Hourly wages probably rose 0.3% in August, after 0.4% gains in June and July, economists say. That would push the year-over-year gain to 4%, "which would likely prompt additional concerns regarding emerging wage pressures," said Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros. A 4% gain would be the largest since mid-2001, but still shy of the 4.1% increase in consumer prices through July.

Core inflation

The big inflation news of the week will come Thursday morning at 8:30 in the personal income and spending report, which includes the core personal consumption expenditure price index. That's the Fed's preferred gauge of consumer inflation. Economists are forecasting a fourth-straight 0.2% increase in core inflation in July.
Even trend-like growth of 0.2% would push the year-over-year gain to 2.5%, the most since January 1995. The Fed would like to keep core inflation between 1% and 2%.
A significant number of economists are predicting a 0.1% gain in core prices, given the large drop in apparel prices in the consumer price index.

FOMC minutes

How markets react to the July inflation numbers might depend on what's in the FOMC minutes from the Aug. 8 meeting, where Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented from the decision to hold rates steady for the first time in more than two years.
The highly sanitized summary of the meeting will be released on Tuesday at 2 p.m. Eastern.
Since the Aug. 8 meeting, much of the economic data have been weak or have shown benign inflation, which has led the market to expect no further rate hikes. The minutes could reveal more internal dissension about the Fed's decision to pause and more ongoing concern about inflationary pressures, mirroring comments made by Fed Presidents Jack Guynn and Michael Moskow in the last week.
A hawkish tone to the minutes could "prompt markets to rethink the path of Fed policy," Lehman's Matus said. Lehman expects two more rate hikes this year.
On the other hand, market may be "unperturbed even by further signs of dissension" because the benign data have supported the Fed's decision to wait, said Mickey Levy, chief economist for Bank of America. Levy is predicting two more rate hikes as well.
The income and spending report on Wednesday should also show a healthy rise in spending as the third quarter began. Economists are forecasting a 0.7% rise in nominal spending, the biggest since January. The strong consumer spending in July could go ease worries that the housing slowdown and high energy costs are flattening the consumer.

 

[dc2000]

an easy enough morning so far

Early bird worm an all that

 

[wasp]

nice run up.... can't imagine we will break out today of all days this week, so I would imagine we'll drop off from here.....

expect nothing and be ready for anything!

 

[wasp]

I take it everyones off enjoying the bank holiday then?!

 

[dc2000]

looks like it

Ive been long and now short looking to hold into tomorrow, unless we drop 150 pips from here today