S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2021

1nvest

Active member
228 81
Bullish whilst we're still in an uptrend, but marginally so this week
3932.7 for me please Atilla
and thanks for keeping this going
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,650 2,998
Thanks guys and welcome to our new forecaster Barjon... :)

Been working on the weighting average. The weighting is very rudimentary. It is based on the forecasters position on the league table. So 1nvest is top of the board out of 4 players (as of last week) so he has a weighting of 4. The others are just based on ranking. I've decided not to include a weighting for those who have negative scores.

The forecasts are multiplied by the weighting and then averaged ie divided by the total sum of all weights. Hope that makes sense. Happy to tweak it.

This week will also include Weighted Average - WA as a forecaster. Be interesting to see how the collective WA sits on the league table.


My forecast for this week is 3812.
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,650 2,998
Hi Everyone,

Delighted to see new and old names to the competition welcome and thank you for taking part. More the merrier. (y) :cool:(y)

Below is the forecasts for this week and the leader board - led by 1nvest.

I have added Weighted Average (WAVG) and simple Average (AVG) to the competition. This is to see how we compare to the crowd.

I'm also having a little play with a Black Box system I'm trialling out with some weird and wonderful ideas.
It is called BB_TFS.

There are now 10 forecasters - 3 of which are - Androids so to speak created out numbers.

We have 4 bulls and 6 bears this week with a larger forecast variance of 135 points.

Wishing you all good trading for the week ahead and best of everything :)


1613427693094.png
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,650 2,998
Well done to a our old timer Oscar Reed who takes the gold medal this week squeezing in between Weighted Average and Simple Average forecasts.

Oscar has also come within a cat's whisker of missing bulls eye by -0.71 point. I checked the records sheet but sadly he is 4th closest of all time (see record holders at bottom of post.).

WA takes the 2nd silver spot and AVG takes the bronze medal in third place. Great call and the forecasting group looks like they may be a good all round mix. (y) (y)(y)

1613823330042.png



Market seems stunted at the mo with actual variance for the week at just 27 points. Last week it was 32. Does this mean the market is happy with current valuations and everything is hunky dory. Buyers and sellers can't see much difference. and all agreed on prices??? Heard some rumours about a 10% correction! Really??? Awaiting with interest for next weeks forecasts.

On the league table, Oscar has taken first place with WA in second.

1613824063623.png



1613822859175.png


Wishing you all a good weekend. There's a heat wave coming to the UK so don't forget your sun-creams... :cool:
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
19,650 2,998
You can cast your forecasts up until US markets open which is usually until 2:30pm London time on Monday.

So no you are not late.

The rules will be relaxed at the beginning start of the competition. However, as it gets to the end they will be strictly enforced. I will leave it up to you all to say whether one person's vote should be included or not so everyone is happy.


I'm going with 3889 this week.
 
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