S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2021


Legendary member
Welcome all to the opening of the 2021 S&P 500 weekly forecast competition.

The competition is open to all forum members and is free to enter, no catches, no spam, no hard sells, just make a prediction for the close of the S&P500 cash market on a weekly. Joining the competition can be made at any time throughout the year just by posting a forecast in this thread, your name and forecast will then appear on the published spreadsheet along with all other competitors, the earlier you join in the year/quarter, the more of a chance of winning a prize, its never too late to join to be in with a chance.

There may be quarterly Amazon Vouchers as prize for the top forecaster but this is yet to be confirmed. However, the quality of forecasting, the banter and taking medals for predicting Friday's closing level is a fab feeling of victory to get your weekends off to a good start.

A simple set of rules govern the running of the competition:
1. The closing price of the S&P 500 cash index is used at the end of each week.
2. Make a price forecast anytime between the close of the previous week and before the opening bell of the first trading day of the following week, post your forecast in this thread. That is Monday morning US time before markets open. Usually 2:30 GMT.
3. No late entries accepted

  • Get 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
  • Having got direction right then:-
a) 3 points for nearest​
b) 2 points for second nearest​
c) 1 point for third nearest​
d) 1 point will be deducted if direction of the forecast is wrong​

3. All entries should be in by weekly opening session of US markets

That's it. The usual regulars will know the format. To all the new comers, this is the real competition that separates the whaflers from consistent market traders who get the moves right.

So let me have your forecasts for the S&P500 Cash index closing level for cob 12th Feb, before US markets open on Monday 8th of February. I'll do the rest.

Good forecasting to all you traders out there....
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Thought it might be interesting listing some past names who have admirably competed in past competitions.

Trader JR
Oscar Reed
Weighted Avg
Here are current record holders.

Record Holders
TitleRecordRecord HolderDateDescription
Closest call to Friday close0.02Fairval2nd Sept 16
Closest call to Friday close0.04Atilla21st Oct 16
Closest call to Friday close0.07Weighted Average1st May 15
Max Gold Medals in a Year8TwinToWin2015
Max Gold Medals in a Quarter5ibetyou2015-QTR-2
Number of Gold Medals in a Row3ibetyou2015-QTR-2
Number of Gold Medals in a Row - Matched3Postman2016-QTR2
Max Silver Medals in a Year9Gaffs & W.Average2014
Max Bronze Medals in a Year7Gaffs2014
Highest Total Medals in a Year20Gaffs2014
Highest Total Medals in a Year - Matched20TwinToWin2015TwinToWin matched Gaffs record of 20 medals in total. 8 / 5 / 7.
Worst Forecast - Variance with close
Best Consistency in a Quarter11 / 13TwinToWin2015-QTR-3Direction correct calls on 11 weeks out of 13
Highest Overall Score in one Year55SignalCalc2017
Wildest out forecast wins Gold97CV9th Feb 2018Markets tank 10% over two weeks.
Highest Quarterly Points
EDIT: Nevermind, I understand now :)

Looking forward to this! :)
Ok to kick it off...

S&P500 Cash index to close at 3851 Friday 12th Feb.

Good luck to you all forecasting. (y)
3888.3 ta

C'mon, rally the troops.

Free Amazon vouchers up for grabs for 1 forecast each week.
How hard can it be !
Hey guys,

Here are the four forecasts for this weeks S&P 500 Cash Index competition.

We have three bulls and one bear.

There is 76.5 point variance in forecast.


Seems 1nvest is the most bullish and I'm the only bear.

Start thinking on how you'd like to create the Weighting. Any bright sparks out there with fancy formulas for working out the metrics are more than welcome to demonstrate their talent exposing to us all how their grey cells function.

Ofcourse there are then us with our black boxes who also prefer to keep our forecasting secret.

Either way this is the competition where the BS walks and consistent traders are champions and get nominated virtual medals.

Watch this space. Hopefully it'll grow and assuming @Sharky recovers from the delightful joy of the Bahamas, we may still yet get to offer some Amazon vouchers.

Wishing you all good luck and prosperous trading.
Well done to a newcomer 1nvest who takes the gold medal this week just missing the closing S&P500 Cash price by 6.56 points. That's a cracking start and super good first forecast for 2021.

Oscar Reed takes the silver spoon and CV takes the consolation bronze bucket. Good calls (y) (y)(y)


Points are awarded as +1 point for getting direction of the move - this week was UP.

+3 points for the person who has made the best forecast, being the closest to Friday's close.
+2 points for getting silver and...
+1 point for getting bronze, coming in third place in proximity.
-1 point is deducted for getting the direction of the move wrong. Your truly is in this spot.

Here is the league table on the first week.


If anyone has suggestions about how to weight the forecasts I'm all ears.
Bullish whilst we're still in an uptrend, but marginally so this week
3932.7 for me please Atilla
and thanks for keeping this going
Thanks guys and welcome to our new forecaster Barjon... :)

Been working on the weighting average. The weighting is very rudimentary. It is based on the forecasters position on the league table. So 1nvest is top of the board out of 4 players (as of last week) so he has a weighting of 4. The others are just based on ranking. I've decided not to include a weighting for those who have negative scores.

The forecasts are multiplied by the weighting and then averaged ie divided by the total sum of all weights. Hope that makes sense. Happy to tweak it.

This week will also include Weighted Average - WA as a forecaster. Be interesting to see how the collective WA sits on the league table.

My forecast for this week is 3812.
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