Featured S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2024

Sharky

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Welcome all to the opening of the 2024 S&P 500 weekly forecast competition.

The competition is open to all forum members and is free to enter, no catches, no spam, no hard sells, just make a prediction for the end of week, Friday close of the S&P500 cash market. Joining the competition can be made at any time throughout the year just by posting a forecast in this thread, your name and forecast will then appear on the published spreadsheet along with all other competitors, the earlier you join in the year/quarter, the more of a chance of winning a prize, its never too late to join to be in with a chance.

There will be quarterly Amazon Vouchers as prize for the top forecaster and the overall top 3 forecasters of the year. Of course, the quality of forecasting, the banter and taking medals for predicting Friday's closing level is a fab feeling of victory to get your weekends off to a good start.

A simple set of rules govern the running of the competition:
  1. The closing price of the S&P 500 cash index is used at the end of each week.
  2. Make a price forecast anytime between the close of the previous week and before the opening bell of the first trading day of the following week, post your forecast in this thread. That is Monday morning US time before markets open. Usually 2:30 GMT.
  3. All entries must be in before Monday's weekly opening session of US markets - no late entries accepted
Scoring
  • Get 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
  • Having got direction right then:-
    • 3 points for nearest (gold medal)
    • 2 points for second nearest (silver medal)
    • 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal)
    • 1 point will be deducted if direction of the forecast is wrong
Prizes
  • Annual Winners (by overall annual points):
    • Winner - Mixed case of wine (6 bottles) or beers (12 bottles) * or gift voucher equivalent (£40)
    • Runner-Up - Gourmet coffee selection (5 * 100g bags) * or gift voucher equivalent (£20)
That's it. The usual regulars will know the format. To all the newcomers, this is the real competition that separates the wafflers from consistent market traders who get the moves right.

Good forecasting to all you traders out there....

PS. 2023 contest thread is here: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/s-p500-weekly-forecasting-competition-for-2023.241639/
 
Unfortunately the ranking of last week (W9) and the scoring is wrong:

1709418391381.png


Obviously the calculation used the S&P result of the previous week (W8).

@Sharky should be seen on rank 2 (silver). :)
 
A partisan research post - not from London
---------------------------------------------------

W9: wrong calculation for ranks and scores
W10: no calculation
W11: data not transferred from thread

5166.2 again for March 29th, 2024 (W12)
 
Restart of the 2024 contest in Q2/2024 desired

As I will be the undisputed winner of Q1/2024 (without any prizes), I suggest to restart this contest from scratch in the second quarter after repairing the software at https://contest.trade2win.com/.
At the end of the year 2024 we could see whether this is an unwise suggestion. ;)

Reasons:
- I assume that some regular participants had given up to publish their in this forum forecast because of the software problems on the contest site.
- I'd like to invite newbies and less experienced traders to share the weekly contest to improve their forecast and trading skills. IMO that's worth more than winning a prize.

@Sharky Is that possible and can the contest site be repaired to stay more stable?

@T2W Bot :) @Atilla @counter_violent @lexcorp @Oscar Reed Of course this suggestion needs your consent as 2024 participants until now.
I'd appreciate if you want to leave a comment to this suggestion.
 
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