S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2023


Welcome all to the opening of the 2023 S&P 500 weekly forecast competition.

The competition is open to all forum members and is free to enter, no catches, no spam, no hard sells, just make a prediction for the end of week, Friday close of the S&P500 cash market. Joining the competition can be made at any time throughout the year just by posting a forecast in this thread, your name and forecast will then appear on the published spreadsheet along with all other competitors, the earlier you join in the year/quarter, the more of a chance of winning a prize, its never too late to join to be in with a chance.

There will be quarterly Amazon Vouchers as prize for the top forecaster and the overall top 3 forecasters of the year. Of course, the quality of forecasting, the banter and taking medals for predicting Friday's closing level is a fab feeling of victory to get your weekends off to a good start.

A simple set of rules govern the running of the competition:
  1. The closing price of the S&P 500 cash index is used at the end of each week.
  2. Make a price forecast anytime between the close of the previous week and before the opening bell of the first trading day of the following week, post your forecast in this thread. That is Monday morning US time before markets open. Usually 2:30 GMT.
  3. All entries must be in before Monday's weekly opening session of US markets - no late entries accepted
  • Get 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
  • Having got direction right then:-
    • 3 points for nearest (gold medal)
    • 2 points for second nearest (silver medal)
    • 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal)
    • 1 point will be deducted if direction of the forecast is wrong
  • Quarterly Winner (Top quarterly points): £25
  • Annual Winners (Top 3 by overall annual points):
    • 1st - £30
    • 2nd - £20
    • 3rd - £10
That's it. The usual regulars will know the format. To all the newcomers, this is the real competition that separates the wafflers from consistent market traders who get the moves right.

So let me have your forecasts for the S&P500 cash index closing level for cob 7th April, before US markets open on Monday 3rd of April. I'll do the rest.

Good forecasting to all you traders out there....

(ps. Thanks to @Atilla who's helped greatly with the handover of the competition, and who's words for this opening post I've very much borrowed from his annual opening post eg. https://www.trade2win.com/threads/s-p500-weekly-forecasting-competition-for-2022.240544/)
A shout out to @Oscar Reed, @1nvest, @counter_violent, @barjon, @Atilla and @lexcorp from the last two year's of competition, consider yourselves cordially invited..

Gathering Ticket To Ride GIF by AsmodeeGames
I'm gonna have a go this time. My prediction is 4035. Thanks
That's brill and welcome, joining the competition. :)

This forecast is for cob Friday 7th of April so we are a trifle early.

However, good to see the lay of the land and who the other brave forecasters are. Hope we get the old forecasters back. (y)
Yes indeed, feel free to update your prediction's until market open next Monday 3rd April.

I'll put a mention out in our April newsletter, so hopefully we'll get a few entries off the back of that.
I'm hanging on to my 4000. See sideways move for a while until something more defining rears its head. :)
@Atilla, right you are sir! CV... I like your level of precision :)

Entries for this first week close at 2:30pm today, just over 5 hours to go...
Since it's Easter the markets will presumably be closed on Friday, so are you taking the results at close Thur? NFPs are still issued Friday I guess?

I never trade Fridays in case I get caught with positions over the weekend

As you can tell I'm taking this very seriously !
Oh good point, you're right, we'll use the S&P 500 cash index close on COB Thursday 6th April then.
Probably worth pointing out, last week market closed at 4109.31, because there is 1 point for getting direction correct. 💡
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Just a heads-up that I've preped the first week's spreadsheet and I'm ready to post, but have sent it to Atilla to give it the once over first and also to ask how best to approach the forecast strength ratio (eg. whether to base it on last years medals.)