S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

Atilla

Legendary member
Welcome all to the opening of the 2022 S&P 500 weekly forecast competition.

The competition is open to all forum members and is free to enter, no catches, no spam, no hard sells, just make a prediction for the end of week, Friday close of the S&P500 cash market. Joining the competition can be made at any time throughout the year just by posting a forecast in this thread, your name and forecast will then appear on the published spreadsheet along with all other competitors, the earlier you join in the year/quarter, the more of a chance of winning a prize, its never too late to join to be in with a chance.

There may be quarterly Amazon Vouchers as prize for the top forecaster but this is yet to be confirmed. However, the quality of forecasting, the banter and taking medals for predicting Friday's closing level is a fab feeling of victory to get your weekends off to a good start.

A simple set of rules govern the running of the competition:
1. The closing price of the S&P 500 cash index is used at the end of each week.
2. Make a price forecast anytime between the close of the previous week and before the opening bell of the first trading day of the following week, post your forecast in this thread. That is Monday morning US time before markets open. Usually 2:30 GMT.
3. No late entries accepted

Scoring
  • Get 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
  • Having got direction right then:-
a) 3 points for nearest (gold medal)
b) 2 points for second nearest (silver medal)
c) 1 point for third nearest (bronze medal)
d) 1 point will be deducted if direction of the forecast is wrong

3. All entries should be in before Monday's weekly opening session of US markets


That's it. The usual regulars will know the format. To all the new comers, this is the real competition that separates the wafflers from consistent market traders who get the moves right.

So let me have your forecasts for the S&P500 Cash index closing level for cob 12th Feb, before US markets open on Monday 8th of February. I'll do the rest.

Good forecasting to all you traders out there....
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
Kicking it off, I'm going with a SPX500 Cash forecast for the 7th Jan closing price @ 4664
 
S

Smith2525

This sounds fun.
I predict a week of sideways action. Will say $4,800.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Hello to all you old and new wonderful forecasters. I am so delighted to see new names to this, what is probably an extra-ordinary and unique competition. It really is a competition for the steady and consistent forecasters. 👏👏:)👏👏

I'm sure you will all pick up the simple points scheme. Key point to note is to get the direction right. Hitting the mark and getting podium spots for the closest top three calls is icing on the cake.

It is a quarterly competition with an end of year annual winner. Here is the league table for the first Quarter. Ordered from the most bullish Captain Currency to the most bearish Atilla. There are 9 bulls and 2 bears.

There are also three metrics Average, Weighted Average and a Black Box Trend Following System (BB_Tfs_v2). If you did have a system you would like to test please feel free to enter it. However, if there are prizes they will not be winning any. Prizes where given are only issued to signed up names.

For week 1 there is a 276 point difference in forecasting range.

1641237024957.png



That's it in a nut shell. Once the the market closes on 7th Jan, Friday, I will enter the market close and we'll see the results.

Feel free to ask any questions you have and blog as you like explaining how you arrive at forecasts if you would like to. We did try this but it didn't get much interest. Personally, I use pivot points and try to stick to trend. I did really badly last year, scoring below average. Both the weighted average and the BB_Tfs beat me. LOL that's what I call humiliation - being beaten by my own system. :eek:

Wishing you all prosperous trading and happy week ahead. :)
 

IlIlIlIlI

Experienced member
Hello to all you old and new wonderful forecasters. I am so delighted to see new names to this, what is probably an extra-ordinary and unique competition. It really is a competition for the steady and consistent forecasters. 👏👏:)👏👏

I'm sure you will all pick up the simple points scheme. Key point to note is to get the direction right. Hitting the mark and getting podium spots for the closest top three calls is icing on the cake.

It is a quarterly competition with an end of year annual winner. Here is the league table for the first Quarter. Ordered from the most bullish Captain Currency to the most bearish Atilla. There are 9 bulls and 2 bears.

There are also three metrics Average, Weighted Average and a Black Box Trend Following System (BB_Tfs_v2). If you did have a system you would like to test please feel free to enter it. However, if there are prizes they will not be winning any. Prizes where given are only issued to signed up names.

For week 1 there is a 276 point difference in forecasting range.

View attachment 311060


That's it in a nut shell. Once the the market closes on 7th Jan, Friday, I will enter the market close and we'll see the results.

Feel free to ask any questions you have and blog as you like explaining how you arrive at forecasts if you would like to. We did try this but it didn't get much interest. Personally, I use pivot points and try to stick to trend. I did really badly last year, scoring below average. Both the weighted average and the BB_Tfs beat me. LOL that's what I call humiliation - being beaten by my own system. :eek:

Wishing you all prosperous trading and happy week ahead. :)
@Atilla Looks like you forgot my post #8 from Today at 1:02 PM :(
 
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Atilla

Legendary member
Well this is a cracking start to the 2022 competition with yours truly taking the gold top spot earning valuable 4 points. 👏 👏 :)

CV the only other bear amongst the forecasters taking the silver medal and 3 points. What a clever bear :)

1641597450859.png


The rest of the pack were all bulls and lose 1 point for getting the weekly close direction wrong.

Results Table for Week1
1641597570696.png


Market closed 89.2 points down.

Forecasting range was 276 points.

Actual trading range for the week was 156 points.

Hope our new comers stay the course and persevere. Looking forward to next weeks forecasts. Collectively, the pack represented by the Weighted Average will improve.

Have a g8 weekend you all now. :)
 

counter_violent

Legendary member
Well this is a cracking start to the 2022 competition with yours truly taking the gold top spot earning valuable 4 points. 👏 👏 :)

CV the only other bear amongst the forecasters taking the silver medal and 3 points. What a clever bear :)

View attachment 311360

The rest of the pack were all bulls and lose 1 point for getting the weekly close direction wrong.

Results Table for Week1
View attachment 311361

Market closed 89.2 points down.

Forecasting range was 276 points.

Actual trading range for the week was 156 points.

Hope our new comers stay the course and persevere. Looking forward to next weeks forecasts. Collectively, the pack represented by the Weighted Average will improve.

Have a g8 weekend you all now. :)

Hi Att,

You missed a forecast off the spreadsheet from this member. Post number 8 on this thread on Monday.

cheers
 

Atilla

Legendary member

Atilla

Legendary member
Hi guys,

Here is the league table in order of points and proximity to guessing Friday's close.

1641650842477.png


Hope you sharpen your forecast pencils this weekend. Looks like it's the DarwineX boys v T2W old codgers competition to me.

Any new entries also more than welcome. More the merrier. I'm sure if we get the numbers up Sharky may volunteer some Amazon quarterly vouchers too. 👍:love:👍
 
 
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