Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

Didn't think so!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/the-trump-effect-rattles-austria

Hofer is calm and charming. The 45-year-old career politician has moved his Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) from the far-right fringe to the mainstream. Ahead of this ballot, he’s distanced himself from French National Front leader Marine Le Pen and softened his euro-skeptic stance, saying he doesn’t want Austria to leave the European Union.

The post of Austrian President is largely ceremonial, but a Hofer win would be a symbolic moment for Europe’s populist parties.

 

[counter_violent]

Didn't think so!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/the-trump-effect-rattles-austria

Hofer is calm and charming. The 45-year-old career politician has moved his Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) from the far-right fringe to the mainstream. Ahead of this ballot, he’s distanced himself from French National Front leader Marine Le Pen and softened his euro-skeptic stance, saying he doesn’t want Austria to leave the European Union.

The post of Austrian President is largely ceremonial, but a Hofer win would be a symbolic moment for Europe’s populist parties.

Doesn't matter what any of them say. The first task is to grab the levers of power and that is what has happened with Brexit, the US election, and ultimately what will happen across Europe.

The bookies have him outright favourite. This is in sharp contrast to Brexit and the US, where both outcomes were written off in the betting.

 

[Atilla]

Hearing Boris in favour of free movement.

May talking about keeping cards close to her chest.


Similar to Gove, Boris just after power and leadership. He always was pro-EU and you know it makes sense so now as events unfold we see shifts in position.

Leadsome I bet is the same along with Theresa May who played a clever hand.

Tory party really nasty party along with UKIP imo. This approach does not bode well for UK economy, people or Europe.

Migration restrictions apparently may not apply to farming.

There is news Citibank drawing up plans to move derivatives business to Franfurt. Other banks firming intentions with plans to move to Amsterdam and Paris too.

EU will certainly benefit and UK will lose out.


What a farce its all turning into. Cabinet split and about as tightly meshed as a sieve.

 

[tomorton]

Poor Theresa May, she really got the short straw as all the others ran away to hide.

 

[Atilla]

Poor Theresa May, she really got the short straw as all the others ran away to hide.

Yeah right. Believe that and you'll believe anything.


We heard her saying one thing to the GS bankers and another to Cameron and another to her crony followers behind closed doors for her to be elected.

She is probably the snake in the grass no one notices until late in the day. So much for conviction politics. She's just another nasty player imo.

 

[sminicooper]

Boris - loose canon still?

Seems like the latest Boris (ambassador leaked) revelations confirm that at heart he is a remainer who saw his way to No.10. Just makes me wonder what it was that Gove knew that prompted him to sabotage Boris's Leadership bid, and of course, his own career - albeit perhaps only temporarily for both. Looks like Boris wants to be all things to all men - reminds me of "Call me Dave" - who was also a product of the Future Leader courses run at Eton. I suspect that May is gonna have trouble with Boris but probably not as much as she'll get if she throws him out of her close circle.

 

[Mr. Charts]

44% of our exports go to the EU.
10% of their exports come to us.

So that puts us in a strong position, does it?

 

[Mr. Charts]

I really don't know what you guys expect from politicians. Duplicity is in their DNA, the only problem is when they get caught lying. Their skills only really lie in how easily they gloss over their duplicity.
They are only honest in their memoirs.............

 

[forker]

44% of our exports go to the EU.
10% of their exports come to us.

So that puts us in a strong position, does it?

If you want to call approximately 220 billion in income to eu businesses a weak position then okay, I'm sure they can do without it.

 

[tomorton]

44% of our exports go to the EU.
10% of their exports come to us.

So that puts us in a strong position, does it?

Well, it depends.

Plus it seems we are Germany's third largest export buyers, only France and the US are greater.

 

[Atilla]

fwiw - they are talking how much UK will need to contribute to the EU budget to maintain free market access & passport rights without the free movement of labour.

imo That's a good compromise.

In reality however, UK will continue to need EU skills as she will be unable to educate, train and employ at desired wage levels.

 

[forker]

fwiw - they are talking how much UK will need to contribute to the EU budget to maintain free market access & passport rights without the free movement of labour.

imo That's a good compromise.

In reality however, UK will continue to need EU skills as she will be unable to educate, train and employ at desired wage levels.

I agree it's a good compromise. All we need now is a first class immigration system to accompany it.

 

[forker]

The thing is. We need to see if the fee would ultimately be cheaper than tariffs. Last thing we need is a cost that's more expensive.

 

[Atilla]

The thing is. We need to see if the fee would ultimately be cheaper than tariffs. Last thing we need is a cost that's more expensive.

It's not that simple. Trying to factor in externalities of wealth creation in London likely to be very difficult.

Not a like for like number. I feel this is the mistake Brexit camp are making in valuing the benefit of the EU.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Just as Britain hopes and dreams of finding alternative markets for our post-Brexit exports, there may be plenty of people in Germany with the same beliefs for their ertwhile exports to us so I still think we are going to beg (sorry, negotiate) from a weak position.

 

[Mr. Charts]

And they are going to be very hard on us pour encourager les autres.

 

[tomorton]

I agree it's a good compromise. All we need now is a first class immigration system to accompany it.

......first class immigration system.....?
Surely you're being ironic. We haven't had one of those ever, have we?

 

[forker]

I wouldn't call a major economy exiting the eu a poor negotiating position. They wish they can be hard on us but ultimately they are not in an economical position to dictate. Handing us steep tariffs is going to reduce cash flows to their economy which is on a fine edge of collapsing. All the big nations have literally emptied their reserves on bailing out the credit crisis so they don't have a fully loaded gun. They are also going to lose out on revenue derived from exploiting our fishing grounds. Another sleeping issue they are feeding is cheap credit. When rates finally rise, how much of that debt is going to be problematic.

So I don't for a second believe we are in a weak position. The eu are heavily exposed to a rising against their policies. Treating us badly might backfire on them much like project doom affected brexit.

 

[sminicooper]

The negotiation are relatively unimportant. The EU is in terminal decline due to changing politics adding to a flawed economic model. In 5 years time BREXIT will look like a good decision. (IMHO of course - I'm not wishing to wind up the Remainers).

 

[counter_violent]

The negotiation are relatively unimportant. The EU is in terminal decline due to changing politics adding to a flawed economic model. In 5 years time BREXIT will look like a good decision. (IMHO of course - I'm not wishing to wind up the Remainers).

Exactly right. They have nowhere to go but down. What boils my p1ss is that all these whinging remainians would have us tethered to this sinking ship.