Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

I wouldn't call a major economy exiting the eu a poor negotiating position. They wish they can be hard on us but ultimately they are not in an economical position to dictate. Handing us steep tariffs is going to reduce cash flows to their economy which is on a fine edge of collapsing. All the big nations have literally emptied their reserves on bailing out the credit crisis so they don't have a fully loaded gun. They are also going to lose out on revenue derived from exploiting our fishing grounds. Another sleeping issue they are feeding is cheap credit. When rates finally rise, how much of that debt is going to be problematic.

So I don't for a second believe we are in a weak position. The eu are heavily exposed to a rising against their policies. Treating us badly might backfire on them much like project doom affected brexit.

Let's forget that argument, we don't need the EU because we can get the stuff cheaper else where.

They will no doubt displace what we sell into the EU with products they produce internally and can equally import from else where in return for bilateral deals.

It is clear both parties will lose but one party will inevitably lose more than the other.

As for 5 years. That's optimistic, based on terminal decline of the EU which is also wishfull thinking.

I reckon all you Brexiters should play for the national cricket team coz you guys really know how to bat away those balls.

 

[forker]

Let's forget that argument, we don't need the EU because we can get the stuff cheaper else where.

They will no doubt displace what we sell into the EU with products they produce internally and can equally import from else where in return for bilateral deals.

It is clear both parties will lose but one party will inevitably lose more than the other.

As for 5 years. That's optimistic, based on terminal decline of the EU which is also wishfull thinking.

I reckon all you Brexiters should play for the national cricket team coz you guys really know how to bat away those balls.

We would be the A team mate

 

[Atilla]

Exactly right. They have nowhere to go but down. What boils my p1ss is that all these whinging remainians would have us tethered to this sinking ship.

Of all the pros and cons, it's now down to look here the EU will sink anyway is sooo lame. Desparation, clutching at straws because the arguments to leaving aren't simply materialising.

I hear the UK government wanting to start talks with Australia having got 'nada' from India.

Leap for joy why don't you. White Cliffs of Dover should suit you. :cheesy:

 

[counter_violent]

Of all the pros and cons, it's now down to look here the EU will sink anyway is sooo lame. Desparation, clutching at straws because the arguments to leaving aren't simply materialising.

I hear the UK government wanting to start talks with Australia having got 'nada' from India.

Leap for joy why don't you. White Cliffs of Dover should suit you. :cheesy:

EU was always going to sink.

Some people are very slow, takes them an age for reality to dawn.

 

[Atilla]

EU was always going to sink.

Some people are very slow, takes them an age for reality to dawn.

65+ years later, EU was always going to sink.

 

[sminicooper]

I reckon all you Brexiters should play for the national cricket team coz you guys really know how to bat away those balls.

That's the problem actually - those continental foreign chappies have never learned how to play cricket.

 

[forker]

Draghi said it.....(fluff filtered out)

"Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary"

"In other words, right now we're all aware that the monetary policy support that is in place is extraordinary."

"we didn't discuss tapering or the intended horizon"

"the expectation that this extraordinary policy support will remain in place."

"On Portugal, the bonds are currently eligible as the first best rating is BBB- with a stable outlook by this rating agency. And we know that if there is a downgrade, marketable debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the Republic of Portugal would become ineligible as collateral for monetary policy operations, and for purchases under the PSPP"

"About Greece: discussions about debt sustainability are continuing. We have expressed, like others, like everybody else, concerns about debt sustainability, therefore measures have to be undertaken to address this problem"

"the extraordinary monetary policy"

"inflation expectations by and large across all horizons have declined quite significantly"

 

[Signalcalc]

The current EU leadership will crumble when Turkey decides to release the refugees. We probably won't be negotiating with the current decision makers in 2 years time.

Now make some predictions based on that eventuality.

 

[Atilla]

Some calling it a mini-referendum on Brexit.

Some say Brexin tops Heathrow development.

Some say Liberals will eat into Labour and Conservative votes and Govern the UK for the first time.


Politically, the Liberal Democrats’ success in fighting the Richmond Park election on the single issue of Brexit reopens a question that the June referendum was meant to settle. Pro-Europeans will now seek to turn every vote they can into a mini-referendum on Brexit, or at least on whether the country wants a hard Brexit or to stay close to the EU.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ction-defeat-exposes-brexit-gulf-dividing-u-k

I do hope Liberals take control. Always thought Nick Clegg and Liberals did well to support the Tories defeat Labour and recover from 2008 turmoil. However, haven't done well since.

Time is right for Liberals to take control and put Brexit/Brexin debate through Parliament in safe constitutional hands.

 

[sminicooper]

Some calling it a mini-referendum on Brexit.

Some say Brexin tops Heathrow development.

Some say Liberals will eat into Labour and Conservative votes and Govern the UK for the first time.


Politically, the Liberal Democrats’ success in fighting the Richmond Park election on the single issue of Brexit reopens a question that the June referendum was meant to settle. Pro-Europeans will now seek to turn every vote they can into a mini-referendum on Brexit, or at least on whether the country wants a hard Brexit or to stay close to the EU.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ction-defeat-exposes-brexit-gulf-dividing-u-k

I do hope Liberals take control. Always thought Nick Clegg and Liberals did well to support the Tories defeat Labour and recover from 2008 turmoil. However, haven't done well since.

Time is right for Liberals to take control and put Brexit/Brexin debate through Parliament in safe constitutional hands.

Ever since the Orpington by-election of 1960-something the Liberals been telling us that they will make a comeback. Clegg blew their chances when the opportunity came nearly 50 years later. Now, in an overwhelmingly pro-Remain constituency election, they're telling us that 20,000 votes outweigh the 17million or so of June 23rd last and that justifies another referendum (because the voters didn't understand what they were doing and hopefully next time they'll come up with the correct answer).

Like it or not, the country voted to leave: They just don't get it do they?

 

[timsk]

. . . Like it or not, the country voted to leave: They just don't get it do they?

Seemingly not!

Since the referendum, I've been asked if I regret voting to leave. The answer is an emphatic no: everything I've seen, heard and read since confirms that I made the right decision. However, when it comes to voting in a general election, I do rather regret wasting my vote on the Lib' Dems. For years, I stuck with them because of their commitment to proportional representation. Since they abanded that, they've done u-turns on other key policy areas, of which scrapping increases in tuition fees is the most infamous.

Given that other than UKIP, there isn't a mainstream political party that really supports Brexit, I really hoped the Lib' Dems would seize the opportunity and provide reason for me to believe in them again. What a disappointment that's turned out to be! Listening to utter nonsense that Sarah Olney and Tim Farron have come out with, I seriously doubt that I'll ever vote for them again.
Tim.

 

[Mr. Charts]

Seemingly not!

Since the referendum, I've been asked if I regret voting to leave. The answer is an emphatic no: everything I've seen, heard and read since confirms that I made the right decision. However, when it comes to voting in a general election, I do rather regret wasting my vote on the Lib' Dems. For years, I stuck with them because of their commitment to proportional representation. Since they abanded that, they've done u-turns on other key policy areas, of which scrapping increases in tuition fees is the most infamous.

Given that other than UKIP, there isn't a mainstream political party that really supports Brexit, I really hoped the Lib' Dems would seize the opportunity and provide reason for me to believe in them again. What a disappointment that's turned out to be! Listening to utter nonsense that Sarah Olney and Tim Farron have come out with, I seriously doubt that I'll ever vote for them again.
Tim.

I used to have a dental practice in Richmond long ago before I was a trader, and I know what Richmond folk can be like. They sure elect some turkeys, Jenny Tonge, Zac Goldsmith etc., the latter must be the only turkey who couldn't wait for Xmas so committed suicide.

Never mind, Tim, it's the perennial fate of all party supporters to be disappointed in the end. At least now the light has penetrated to deepest Devon :whistling

The Lib Dems - the triumph of hope over experience.

And, Comrade Attila, remember they've just taken the seat back ! It doesn't mean anything else so don't get excited

 

[Atilla]

Ever since the Orpington by-election of 1960-something the Liberals been telling us that they will make a comeback. Clegg blew their chances when the opportunity came nearly 50 years later. Now, in an overwhelmingly pro-Remain constituency election, they're telling us that 20,000 votes outweigh the 17million or so of June 23rd last and that justifies another referendum (because the voters didn't understand what they were doing and hopefully next time they'll come up with the correct answer).

Like it or not, the country voted to leave: They just don't get it do they?

Dear MiniCooper

Much like our CV your reference and ability to manipulate numbers is super-ordinary.

Richmond has an electorate (eligible to vote) of 77,000 people.

Turnout was 41,2834 - ie 54%

What is important is that there was a +30% increase in Lib-Dems vote with a +20% swing away from Tory and Labour vote.

Libs - 49.7%
Cons - 45%
Lab - 3.7% Can't imagine who these Labour voters living in Richmond are. I reckon they must be the Labour MPs and Lords living there.


Whilst I appreciate Richmound may be in a bubble of its own, never the less it indicates a clear substantial turn around considering what the Liberals and our Tim Farron have campaigned along. Brexit even trumps Heathrow for the residents.

For you to compare 77 thousand against the 46.5 million national electorate is simply very wrong. Very very wrong. If 46 million had another referendum you'll then see the difference.


I do feel another referendum once we know what Brexit means and looks like without the BS of politicians will be true democracy. Let the people decide.

Anyone who thinks the gang of four May, Gove, Boris and Leadsome and anyone else are true Brits with national interest or Nigel or the UKIP party have seen the colour of these people.

I've heard some talk that tries to explain Gove's wreckless actions as an act of national patriotism because some how he found out Boris was not a true leaver but a remainer and wanted to sink his plans in the national interest and put him self forward as 'the' guvernor.

I've really heard it all.

They are politicians, power hungry politicians.


Power to the Liberals.

 

[counter_violent]

Some calling it a mini-referendum on Brexit.

Some say Brexin tops Heathrow development.

Some say Liberals will eat into Labour and Conservative votes and Govern the UK for the first time.


Politically, the Liberal Democrats’ success in fighting the Richmond Park election on the single issue of Brexit reopens a question that the June referendum was meant to settle. Pro-Europeans will now seek to turn every vote they can into a mini-referendum on Brexit, or at least on whether the country wants a hard Brexit or to stay close to the EU.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ction-defeat-exposes-brexit-gulf-dividing-u-k

I do hope Liberals take control. Always thought Nick Clegg and Liberals did well to support the Tories defeat Labour and recover from 2008 turmoil. However, haven't done well since.

Time is right for Liberals to take control and put Brexit/Brexin debate through Parliament in safe constitutional hands.

 

[Atilla]

.

 

[counter_violent]

Dear MiniCooper

Much like our CV your reference and ability to manipulate numbers is super-ordinary.

Richmond has an electorate (eligible to vote) of 77,000 people.

Turnout was 41,2834 - ie 54%

What is important is that there was a +30% increase in Lib-Dems vote with a +20% swing away from Tory and Labour vote.

Libs - 49.7%
Cons - 45%
Lab - 3.7% Can't imagine who these Labour voters living in Richmond are. I reckon they must be the Labour MPs and Lords living there.


Whilst I appreciate Richmound may be in a bubble of its own, never the less it indicates a clear substantial turn around considering what the Liberals and our Tim Farron have campaigned along. Brexit even trumps Heathrow for the residents.

For you to compare 77 thousand against the 46.5 million national electorate is simply very wrong. Very very wrong. If 46 million had another referendum you'll then see the difference.


I do feel another referendum once we know what Brexit means and looks like without the BS of politicians will be true democracy. Let the people decide.

Anyone who thinks the gang of four May, Gove, Boris and Leadsome and anyone else are true Brits with national interest or Nigel or the UKIP party have seen the colour of these people.

I've heard some talk that tries to explain Gove's wreckless actions as an act of national patriotism because some how he found out Boris was not a true leaver but a remainer and wanted to sink his plans in the national interest and put him self forward as 'the' guvernor.

I've really heard it all.

They are politicians, power hungry politicians.


Power to the Liberals.

Hard to brand all these movements as extremists when they would not get elected if it were not for people turning out and voting for them.

What we have here is a return of power to the people. How many times does this need to happen before the establishment wake up and take heed of the message !

The establishment is out of kilter, not the people.

Go ponder !


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38180629

 

[Signalcalc]

Libs - 49.7%

Cons - 45%

Lab - 3.7%

And you think a 1% difference in the vote makes it a majority [emoji15]

 

[Atilla]

And you think a 1% difference in the vote makes it a majority [emoji15]

Don't understand your point here. I never said 1% difference makes a majority.

In words of some - what freaking planet are you coming from????


Main point is the major swing in votes considering where Liberals were at and they what they campaigned on in gauging the swing in the results.

 

[Atilla]

Hard to brand all these movements as extremists when they would not get elected if it were not for people turning out and voting for them.

What we have here is a return of power to the people. How many times does this need to happen before the establishment wake up and take heed of the message !

The establishment is out of kilter, not the people.

Go ponder !


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38180629

I'm afraid the people are still voting for the establishment and the worst of their kind.

If you think our current leader and Trump represents the popullar vote we all have to think again.

Simply too soon to tell but signs not good imho.

All we have is just talk which doesn't bode well. So much hype with no substance.


As I said people making noises with no action plan, no resources, no output, nothing delivered. Just hype and noise. No article 50 and no new jobs in the US, no new deals here with India and Ford moving small car production to Mexico. GS bodies hired.

Staggering to see what you are all jumping up and down about.

We are building foundations that will rip our wealth, strenght and social cohesion apart in the years to come. We will move from cooperation to destructive competition.

 

[counter_violent]

Don't understand your point here. I never said 1% difference makes a majority.

In words of some - what freaking planet are you coming from????


Main point is the major swing in votes considering where Liberals were at and they what they campaigned on in gauging the swing in the results.

Remainians voting for remain !

Nothing to see here, move along. :smart: