Brexit and the Consequences

[counter_violent]

She used to say "that no deal was better than a bad deal" – seems to have gone a bit quiet on that of late! I suspect she will go to any lengths (to include shafting her own school) to remain as Head Girl.

No Deal is the default position if parliament cannot agree terms, hence the remoaner MP's mickey mouse amendments. They have no interest in honoring the referendum, rather they are just out to cause chaos. I can see all this ending extremely badly for the establishment should they persist in their attempt to subvert the will of the people.

 

[counter_violent]

Splitlink
Well-known member

Last seen Nov 30, 2018

Hmm, unusual Split hasn't been around. Hope he's ok.

 

[0007]

And you might like to read this - from sick man of Europe to world beater thanks to joining the common market.

https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/Brexit

That's very true and I doubt whether we would have made such good progress without that and the coming of Thatcherism. But the EU is now a completely different animal and Thatcherism has been eroded. That's why we need to get out and make a fresh start with some decent leadership. Getting out is the easy bit .......... finding some good leadership ??????????????

 

[barjon]

Splitlink
Well-known member

Last seen Nov 30, 2018

Hmm, unusual Split hasn't been around. Hope he's ok.

Yeah, let’s hope so.

 

[Atilla]

And anything that's posted which doesn't suit the remoaner narrative is ignored. Tims vid for example which clearly states that FDI to the UK is greater than Germany, France and Sweden combined. So, the smart money is still backing the UK because they know that the EU is a worse bet going forward.

I did have a quick look at that video clip but all I heard was some guy rubbishing statistics without any facts charts or relevant to look at.

One example, he said UK FTSE fell12% compared 18% for Germany and saw France down 11%. However, considering sterling has collapsed by 10-15% and most of FTSE100 profits earned abroad reflects in UK company profits looking better than the rest. Germany impacted by US tariffs and markets measured in same old Euros.

How he can claim such facts without making any qualifying statements, assumptions or indicating unit of measurements is just so wrong.

Usually, as soon as I spot one or two flaws some amateurish blurb which is just a lot of gas I switch off.


Looking at UK PMI numbers despite a 20% drop in the pound is positively bad. However, it's quite reasonable to conclude chart was in decline since 2014 anyhow. Referendum blip is clear to see along with decline.

However, such changes are much harder to hide as in some of the charts in Barjon's post because they are over a longer time frame and trends much clearer to see.

Notice the Thatcher policies dip which was soo bad it took recovery in rest of the world and Reaganomics to pull us out of 3m+ unemployment and sale of national assets for a song. Since then it has genuinely been UK benefiting from EU and trade that has propelled us to being 5th in the GDP league table.

Let's be fair chaps, as some of you talk about the inbred fairness of the English character if you look at that chart and claim EU has held us back and provided UK no benefit none what so ever at all are simply not playing fair IMHO.

So when someone says to you we could do so much better if we weren't in the EU, you've GOT TO QUESTION, how so?

One other point on that chart, it is indexed at a point in time and inflation / price adjusted. One can tell a totally different story if you didn't look at real values and skewed results by inflation.

 

[Signalcalc]

I did have a quick look at that video clip but all I heard was some guy rubbishing statistics without any facts charts or relevant to look at.

One example, he said UK FTSE fell12% compared 18% for Germany and saw France down 11%. However, considering sterling has collapsed by 10-15% and most of FTSE100 profits earned abroad reflects in UK company profits looking better than the rest. Germany impacted by US tariffs and markets measured in same old Euros.

How he can claim such facts without making any qualifying statements, assumptions or indicating unit of measurements is just so wrong.

Usually, as soon as I spot one or two flaws some amateurish blurb which is just a lot of gas I switch off.


Looking at UK PMI numbers despite a 20% drop in the pound is positively bad. However, it's quite reasonable to conclude chart was in decline since 2014 anyhow. Referendum blip is clear to see along with decline.

However, such changes are much harder to hide as in some of the charts in Barjon's post because they are over a longer time frame and trends much clearer to see.

View attachment 259197

Notice the Thatcher policies dip which was soo bad it took recovery in rest of the world and Reaganomics to pull us out of 3m+ unemployment and sale of national assets for a song. Since then it has genuinely been UK benefiting from EU and trade that has propelled us to being 5th in the GDP league table.

Let's be fair chaps, as some of you talk about the inbred fairness of the English character if you look at that chart and claim EU has held us back and provided UK no benefit none what so ever at all are simply not playing fair IMHO.

So when someone says to you we could do so much better if we weren't in the EU, you've GOT TO QUESTION, how so?

One other point on that chart, it is indexed at a point in time and inflation / price adjusted. One can tell a totally different story if you didn't look at real values and skewed results by inflation.

No context?? Where's the chart prior to 1973?? and post 2016??

All this chart is telling me is that GDP on a per capita basis has followed the same trend globally, whereabouts is the UK different?

 

[Signalcalc]

It was ever thus. I had a book around 50 years ago called How to Lie with Statistics. Little gem it was. Same set of stats can be presented so many different ways and used to support various arguments and even those on totally opposing sides.

Glad to see you are learned of the art

I think we would need to go back to the invention of language as a means of communication to discover the beginnings of manipulation for resource gain.

It's taken a long time for the anti-Globalist ether to wake up to the possibility of a new paradigm, the present is already different to that of a couple of years ago, if doesn't matter what propaganda you believe in, the wheels of change are already in motion.

Nonetheless you can’t argue with the basic facts, only be wary of the presentation. I don’t see you applying the same rigour with the tripe put out by the Brexit camp, but I do see you pour scorn on anything contrary to your Brexit stance. Even facts are just dismissed as propaganda.

Which facts are we referring to? (I'm getting a deja vu )

presume you are confident of your position, but by just dismissing anything to the contrary it certainly doesn’t seem so.

At least I put forward arguments when dismissing remain information, I see a certain lack of argument when attempts are made to dismiss Brexiteers information.

In the war of propaganda I (and many others) have been very patient waiting for the facts to emerge, alas twas not to be

 

[Atilla]

No context?? Where's the chart prior to 1973?? and post 2016??

All this chart is telling me is that GDP on a per capita basis has followed the same trend globally, whereabouts is the UK different?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_United_Kingdom#Relative_Decline

Have a read!

Also, so why would you say UK applied to join the EEC in 1961, when it refused in 1950? What made government change their mind?

Why would they choose to join the EEC taking over 10 years against stiff French opposition if it was not a good idea?

 

[Signalcalc]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_the_United_Kingdom#Relative_Decline

Have a read!

Also, so why would you say UK applied to join the EEC in 1961, when it refused in 1950? What made government change their mind?

Why would they choose to join the EEC taking over 10 years against stiff French opposition if it was not a good idea?

Doesn't look like a chart to me !

Could it be because 'The Conference Board Total Economy Database' hasn't produced a chart with historical context pre 1973 and post 2016?

 

[barjon]

Doesn't look like a chart to me !

Could it be because 'The Conference Board Total Economy Database' hasn't produced a chart with historical context pre 1973 and post 2016?

The context is Britain’s time as a member of the EU (as it is called now) up to 2016. You can sneer against it any which way, but you can’t dispute that Britain has done rather well during it’s membership. I dare say you’ll find a way, though

 

[counter_violent]

The context is Britain’s time as a member of the EU (as it is called now) up to 2016. You can sneer against it any which way, but you can’t dispute that Britain has done rather well during it’s membership. I dare say you’ll find a way, though

Well that's an easy one and has been done to death on this thread.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance...g-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

next!

 

[Signalcalc]

The context is Britain’s time as a member of the EU (as it is called now) up to 2016. You can sneer against it any which way, but you can’t dispute that Britain has done rather well during it’s membership. I dare say you’ll find a way, though

And so has the US? What about other non-EU economies over the same time period? How can we say it is because of the EU when there is no real context other than timeline which tells us little about the argument presented.

This graph actually shows the UK and US economies more closely aligned than it does with France and Germany, care to pick another random chart and stick any old narrative onto it?

Attila even has a dig at Thatcher and states that it was the US that dug us out of it, when it is clear for all to see that the chart of all the countries presented dipped and rose along the same timeline.

Nope, sorry chaps, if economics are the only arguments you have in favour of the EU, then you are going to have to do better to convince Brexiteers, just like the Globalist establishment tried to convince us otherwise, that worked out well for them

 

[Signalcalc]

As it appears you remainers are draggin your heels getting this chart together I'll make it really easy for you, now that I've gone and done the hard work anyway, click the links and make sure you click the images tab to get the pretty pictures, quelle suprise! said no-one in the Gilets Jaunes

https://lmgtfy.com/?s=d&q=uk+gdp+per+capita+chart+1900-2000

and to make it even easier for you, I pulled a random one out for analysis

Well looky here, what does this tell us? That for 273 years prior to the UK joining the EC that our GDP was rising inline with the USofA, then around 1950 we had lift off aligned with Japan and Germany lagging behind the US leading the charge, were we members then? I think not.

Can someone pinpoint exactly just where our GDP rose as a result of joining the EU?

 

[Signalcalc]

Shock, horror, the 2014 decline SLOWED from 2016, is this because of Brexit , no surely we can't have such good economic news based on the referendum to leave! Can we?

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

Ahem!

In the latest reports, United Kingdom's GDP expanded 1.218 % YoY in Jun 2018.

 

[Signalcalc]

Looks like we took a bit of a dip when we decided to join the EC, before we continued with the rest of the non-EC planet, how does that fit the narrative? Even the crashes of 1987, 1989 and 2000 didn't affect us as much as joining the EC

 

[barjon]

Don’t you remember the dawning of the seventies and Heath’s 3 day week etc? The downturn was well before our joining and gave birth to the “sick man of Europe” jibes So we were saved from the downturn continuing by our joining

Ps my bad x winter of discontent late seventies so replaced earlier post

 

[counter_violent]

Ps my bad x winter of discontent late seventies so replaced earlier post

So pleased we have our dates sorted out.

1979 and Thatchers coming to power was the start of the end of the UK's decline. Absolutely sod all to do with Europe. Attila, bless his cotton socks, is totally confused about Reaganomics. Thatcherism gave birth to Reaganomics and between them gave birth to the whole world changing course, away from socialism and into the expansion of capitalism. And none of this had anything to do with Europe.

 

[Signalcalc]

So pleased we have our dates sorted out.

1979 and Thatchers coming to power was the start of the end of the UK's decline. Absolutely sod all to do with Europe. Attila, bless his cotton socks, is totally confused about Reaganomics. Thatcherism gave birth to Reaganomics and between them gave birth to the whole world changing course, away from socialism and into the expansion of capitalism. And none of this had anything to do with Europe.

UK aligned with the US - naturally - for good and bad.

 

[0007]

Despite Brexit ....................

London has been ranked as the foremost city in Europe for ‘future proofing’ by international professional services and investment management company JLL. Their analysis looks at key data points in wide ranging criteria, from ‘International Patent Applications’ to ‘Environmental Quality’.

http://cities-research.jll.com/cities-research/City-Momentum#future-proofing

 

[barjon]

So pleased we have our dates sorted out.

1979 and Thatchers coming to power was the start of the end of the UK's decline. Absolutely sod all to do with Europe. Attila, bless his cotton socks, is totally confused about Reaganomics. Thatcherism gave birth to Reaganomics and between them gave birth to the whole world changing course, away from socialism and into the expansion of capitalism. And none of this had anything to do with Europe.

Mostly agreed (why I winked in my post ) but Thatcher did have the benefit of North Sea oil coming on stream and the garden of the common market to play in.