Brexit and the Consequences

[Signalcalc]

You don’t “know”, just wish it to be so.

Individual governments do have the support of their voters - that’s why they are there. It’s called democracy.

https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

Looks like fullfact.org are full of faux facts.

https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/faux-facts-disturbing-truth-about-fullfactorg

You only have to look at the current editors bio to see how non-independent they are. It's too easy to pull apart these organisations with just a simple google (duckduckgo) search.

 

[barjon]

Hi Jon,

Fair enough, I accept that.


As I said in my previous post, I don't want to see it collapse as I believe it would be bad for us. A rising tide . . .


What is conspicuous by its absence from yours and Atilla's posts is any attempt to address the numerous issues raised in the video I posted and the Mail Online article that Sig' posted. If you're going to convince me that all's hunky dory in EU land, then I'm afraid that's what you need to do! How about starting with Le President Macron - whose approval ratings are fast heading towards single digits and who is less popular than Marine Le Pen. He's the poster boy for the EU, its very embodiment in human form. Please don't tell me that you subscribe to the Atilla's view that his (and France's) problems have nothing to do with the EU!


Jon - please read the article and watch the videos as it will then become abundantly clear that other EU member state governments have got serious poop on their own respective doorsteps to sort out before turning their attention to the UK and Brexit.
Tim.

Tim

I’m not trying to convince you that everything is hunky dory - far from it. Just that what’s going on is not more than a minor crack and far from signalling collapse. Undoubtedly there’s a lot to put right (and in individual countries) but that is the lot of governments as usual.

 

[counter_violent]

No, you’re not dreaming, but there’s a vast difference between fringe parties and the main players. If they form governments (yes, Italy I know) and then try to break free from the EU as opposed to forcing action on the migrant front you might start having a case. In the meantime the main players hold sway and carry the majority support.

All we need concern ourselves with is direction of travel...todays fringe parties are tomorrows establishment. Politics in Europe is in crisis, it's the same across the whole western world.

 

[barjon]

Given that the Independent's report is based on Oxford Economics assessment, then there is at the very least a UK Gov and EU bias.

Yeah, you’d find bias in a straight line, signal

 

[Atilla]

Hardly a controlled Brexit!

Take back control indeed!

 

[Signalcalc]

Yeah, you’d find bias in a straight line, signal

I like to establish the full facts

 

[Atilla]

How are riots in Paris an EU problem???

EU doesn't have fiscal harmonisation but it should do.

Just some rules around limiting budget deficits. It's up to members to set their own budgets.

Anyhow, what's that got to do with Brexit or the UK.

 

[Atilla]

Hey guys,

fwiw last year I had a new year resolution to stop swearing and be nice to everyone!

I have strived and failed miserably.

I'm planning on another attempt and need your support to help me through.

You Brexiteers are my worst enemy so please wise up and help me achieve my wish for 2019.

 

[Signalcalc]

How are riots in Paris an EU problem???

EU doesn't have fiscal harmonisation but it should do.

Just some rules around limiting budget deficits. It's up to members to set their own budgets.

Anyhow, what's that got to do with Brexit or the UK.

Hasn't Macron taken some sort of action against some of his own senior military figures after they signed a letter denouncing his signing up to the UN migration pact http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3712942/posts?page=2 ? And then there's this possibility.....

What happens to the EU if France crashes out?

 

[Signalcalc]

Hey guys,

fwiw last year I had a new year resolution to stop swearing and be nice to everyone!

I have strived and failed miserably.

I'm planning on another attempt and need your support to help me through.

You Brexiteers are my worst enemy so please wise up and help me achieve my wish for 2019.

View attachment 258983

Here, try one of these

 

[timsk]

. . .You Brexiteers are my worst enemy so please wise up and help me achieve my wish for 2019.

Well in that case At', I recommend you fill ya boots for the next four days or so and get it all out of your system. Then you can start afresh with a clean slate next Tuesday. Whilst your goal is admirable and I wish you well, it's only fair to tell you that I've got a huge short position based on the belief that you've got a snowball's chance in a very hot place of getting to the end of Jan' next year without venting your spleen on one or other of us. Probably deserved mind you; us Brexiteers on 'ere are a right pesky bunch at times!

Now, hit me with all you've got. Let me start you off: I'm a brain dead numpty with my head so far up my ar$e . . .

 

[Signalcalc]

How are riots in Paris an EU problem???

EU doesn't have fiscal harmonisation but it should do.

Just some rules around limiting budget deficits. It's up to members to set their own budgets.

Anyhow, what's that got to do with Brexit or the UK.

Whilst were on the subject of Macron, let's have another dig, he really does supply some comedy moments.

 

[NVP]

Hardly a controlled Brexit!

Take back control indeed!

christ ...i think we will even miss the window the way we are going ........hahahahahahah

 

[timsk]

Tim
I’m not trying to convince you that everything is hunky dory - far from it. Just that what’s going on is not more than a minor crack and far from signalling collapse. Undoubtedly there’s a lot to put right (and in individual countries) but that is the lot of governments as usual.

Hi Jon,
A "minor crack"!!!! Really?
I realise that you and At' just think that us Brexiteers pick on any domestic European issue and immediately lay the blame for it at Brussels' door. Furthermore, I accept that not everything that's going wrong is necessarily the direct fault of the EU. For example, Greece's financial woes are as much a consequence of corruption and a refusal of Greeks to pay their taxes as anything else. However, and this is the key point, it's the EU that stirs the pot by issuing demands and ignoring referendum results etc. which, understandably, doesn't go down too well with the Greek people. So, often as not, all roads do tend to lead back to the EU. And, as I'm forever saying on here and elsewhere - it's all a matter of perception. At the moment, rightly or wrongly, the EU is perceived to be the big bad wolf - and that sentiment is one which appears to be getting stronger by the day.
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

Well in that case At', I recommend you fill ya boots for the next four days or so and get it all out of your system. Then you can start afresh with a clean slate next Tuesday. Whilst your goal is admirable and I wish you well, it's only fair to tell you that I've got a huge short position based on the belief that you've got a snowball's chance in a very hot place of getting to the end of Jan' next year without venting your spleen on one or other of us. Probably deserved mind you; us Brexiteers on 'ere are a right pesky bunch at times!

Now, hit me with all you've got. Let me start you off: I'm a brain dead numpty with my head so far up my ar$e . . .

Thanks SC already have one of those. However, she has awfully low BP that lady on the pic. Brexit tends to raise mine.

Don't give me ideas Tim but I do need coaching so I can reach that nirvana state you seem to reside at.

I saw a bit of that clip but they guy just simply drones on and on. Once again it has nothing to do with EU or UK so can one of you just state how it's supposed to be some impending EU meltdown cause of or effect.

I'm must be sinking to your numpty level as I just don't see what you two are rabbiting on about. To recap, we've had the Austrian, German, Swedish and Italian votes and now it's riots on the Parisian streets all pointing to EU collapse. Oh there were Dutch elections too if I recall. Did I miss the Swiss.

There was also Pats end of the Euro thread when it was 1.03 against the dollar.

We then had some BS about how the Euro was sinking faster than the pound. It is now 1.14. As for the pound it's struggling to get back up to 1.28. Some wonder if we'll ever see the 1.40s again.

Markets always right. So what will it take for you guys to see the total rubbish Brexiteers are churning out day after day?

 

[Atilla]

christ ...i think we will even miss the window the way we are going ........hahahahahahah

I noticed that too, but thought it may be deliberate. Brexiteers will term our departure a controlled exit.

We crawled in through the front door in 11 years and out the window in just 2. Gotta laff.

 

[Signalcalc]

Markets always right. So what will it take for you guys to see the total rubbish Brexiteers are churning out day after day?

If the markets are always right then what are you worrying about if the rest of us are wrong?

 

[Atilla]

If the markets are always right then what are you worrying about if the rest of us are wrong?

Brexit is not about me or you SC. It is about the UK and future of the younger generation starting out their lives with potential prospects that'll be available for them as it was for us.

Question you need to think about and answer is why the fall in the pound? Why is the market selling the pound if UK future prospect so rosy?

 

[mike.]

Brexit is not about me or you SC. It is about the UK and future of the younger generation starting out their lives with potential prospects that'll be available for them as it was for us.

Question you need to think about and answer is why the fall in the pound? Why is the market selling the pound if UK future prospect so rosy?

Well being a trader my old mukker you should know fine well that the pound is moving constantly, sometimes the opposite way in reaction to good and bad news, look at December 2008, A 28 year low because of fear over government borrowing, but you can be sure as night follows day it will rally, pullback, make higher highs, lower lows and keep moving long after Brexit..

.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/3703632/Value-of-pound-falls-to-28-year-low.html

 

[Atilla]

Well being a trader my old mukker you should know fine well that the pound is moving constantly, sometimes the opposite way in reaction to good and bad news, look at December 2008, A 28 year low because of fear over government borrowing, but you can be sure as night follows day it will rally, pullback, make higher highs, lower lows and keep moving long after Brexit..

.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/3703632/Value-of-pound-falls-to-28-year-low.html

That was when the US financial crises spread to the UK. Pound first went up to 2.10 against the dollar as international markets looked for safety. Against the Euro it rose to 1.50+.

However, as soon as the UK self regulated banks followed US Lehmans and Bear Sterns pound quickly collapsed to 1.20s.

You highlight the point however, but don't answer the question.

Point remains market doesn't fancy UK outside of the EU, hence selling UK assets with falling investment.


That export benefit is a one off hit. Steroid injection perhaps but if productivity improvements don't kick in or if benefit consumed by inflationary pressures and wage increases that benefit will be lost.


In a nut shell your argument doesn't stack up and exposes UK to inflation import risk and loss of productivity.