S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2021

Atilla

Legendary member
Wishing you all good luck with week 44 forecasts. I could have guessed CV's forecast this week. :)

We have 5 bullish and 2 bearish forecasts. All the androids are bullish so fingers crossed...

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Atilla

Legendary member
BlackBox_TrendFollowingSystem_Version_2.0 BB_Tfs_V2 takes another gold medal this week bringing its total to 5 medals for the tournament. Just 0.9 ticks away from Friday's close.

I finally get to stand on the podium with a silver and Average takes bronze. I am so pleased at coming 2nd for once. Yay.


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Keep those forecasts coming. Just 10 weeks left for the end of 2021.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Hi Guys,

Another fun packed weak and belated competition updates. Very sorry. :(.

We had 6 bulls and 1 bear.

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Atilla

Legendary member
Here are the results for week 44.

1nvest takes the gold - the biggest of the bulls just 3.38 ticks away from the high close.

Oscar Reed takes the silver and the black box trend following system (BB_Tfs) the bronze. Well done to 1nvest and Oscar the two leaders of the league table. (sorry no podium pics this week).

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Atilla

Legendary member
Hi guys,

Here are the forecasts for this week.

Surprising to see CV sticking to his bearish calls. Bulls v Bears 6 to 1 same as last week.


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Quick write up re: Fed meeting yesterday evening. I thought it was awful and bore no relation to fact or past experience.

Essentially, it was about tapering and no need for rate rises because inflation is considered to be temporary. Test or condition for raising rates was around inflation and the job market. Whilst the labour market / full employment is not achieved, no real reason to raise rates now. This may sound plausible and reasonable to the layman but in economic terms, it's a pile of pooh imo.

Inflation is already in the system with supply chain and energy shocks. Wages have been going up along with employment. Hence to expect higher levels of employment with lower inflation is just nonsense. Total nonsense even if the supply chain issues are resolved. As for energy prices well they'll have to remain high due to demand and secondly to allow peeps to switch to lower-cost green energy (which at the moment is not lower at all).

Anyhow, made no sense to me. Government finances are in a total mess. Good for markets though. Free money at super low if not negative interest rates. Upwards and onwards we go. (y)
 

Atilla

Legendary member
Well done to Oscar Reed who takes his 7th gold medal this week.

The black box android BB_Tfs comes in second place taking silver and Atilla take the bronze bucket.

We've now had 5 x up weeks in a row. Amazing or perhaps not so amazing with so much money sloshing in the system. Big question; will tapering ease the rise in the markets. Well yes obviously it should! Shouldn't it? :)

No pics this week either but here are the results.

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Coming to the end of the year and we are in week 46 very soon. Just 7 weeks left remaining for the end of the year. Make those forecasts count.

Current league table for Quarter 4
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Running total table for 2021
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