FTSE 100 Intraday trading - August 2003

Agreed Chartman.

Apologies if I added to the "noise". I was just trying to understand Matts motivation for posting what he did and realise that this constituted thread hijacking.

Back to the FTSE
 
Mattt321,

If you believed your system is as good as the outrageous claims you make for it on your website, chinesenumbers.com, then I would at least expect a mature, logical response in defence of it.

However if you honestly feel that saying "Frugi you must be one of the many sheep that blindly follow what ever you are told,in order to line your own pockets.baa! baa! baa!thanks" is the best way to endear you to prospective customers then by all means keep going. Your system (at least as it is advertised in its current form) should not be allowed to be sold as it is misleading in the extreme, especially in regard to the over-optimised results. I believe that a few of us have reported your company to the advertising standards agency for this reason.

I'm also surprised the moderators haven't already removed your blatant attempt at advertising your system, especially as it has already been comprehensively discredited on this thread:

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=4854

In the unlikely event I have seized the wrong end of the stick and you have actually bought the system and are defending your purchase we would be glad to know whether you think it was worth the money and what sort of results you have had.

Ah sorry guys looks like you had it covered while my back was turned. Right, definitely back to the FTSE now!
 
You idiots its was a joke!its obvious if it was any good they woudn't be selling it. but Frugi bear tried to make out I was advertising as he has his own knife to sharpen,for god sake if you
are all going to act like sheep clinging together for christ sake keep in line.Thanks for the welcome I bet you are all ginger with sweaty palms.
 
I think as an aid to calm that you should all go to techies corner and sort out my computer problem.
 
Interesting, though of course sad, to see how many scuffles have appeared on these boards over the last few weeks, during which we have had a frustrating, sideways churning market (at least on a daily chart - I know the intradayers probably aren't so concerned). The tension feels like a gathering storm, with the humidity and mounting pressue that leads to irritability, lethargy, exhaustion and an ardent desire for the storm to break. I think perhaps we could all do with a cathartic break of this consolidation to bring the much needed relief of a new daily trend of some endurance.

Keep an eye on the Fed repos (essentially liquidity injections/withdrawals) today as they will need to inject about $20 billion to make up for maturing repos from earleir in the week. Without a dose of this magnitude I think the market may falter badly.
 
frugi,
interested that you mention repos.I have for a while noticed the sharp rallies we get on days of open market ops,or FED intervention in disguise.
I believe this shows the authorities underpinning prices.Have you any view?

Cheers
 
Below I've copied an excerpt from a website I subscribe to - I hope the author, Richard Hahn, does not mind. For reaons of decency and copyright I won't make a habit of it, but on this occasion I feel his interesting, if perhaps slightly obsessive and tending more than a tad toward the conspiracy theory, view of the Fed should be shared. My personal view is that the manipulation isn't as blatant as RH would claim, as surely some of the repo activity is just innocent book keeping, but it is uncanny how many times they step in with fat injections just when the market is teetering on, or just below, critical support.

"A new record was set today for the total amount of outstanding Federal Reserve OMO repos. There's nothing else to know about why the stock market continues to levitate in overbought/overvalued territory. The Federal Reserve is force feeding liquidity into the financial system. That's the reason stocks are sustaining their steep uptrend rally. It's very worrisome to see this kind of market manipulation in a democratic society. It's doomed to fail, if you believe in markets. It's a house of cards, but not many believe in this dire threat to our economic system. Until the gambit fails, the market intervention can continue for a while. I haven't seen this kind of Greenspan panic since the Y2K threat. In the last few weeks of 1999, the Federal Reserve exploded liquidity, which in turn threw “gasoline” on an overheated stock mania “fire”. When the Y2K threat passed without catastrophe, the Fed withdrew liquidity support and the stock market collapsed. The next time you hear a Federal Reserve official talk of their mission of price stability, please laugh out loud! Okay! The Federal Reserve would need to inject about $20 billion on Friday to sustain the rally. That's a ridiculous amount of market intervention support, but it could happen. (Last Friday's liquidity injection following the NE blackout was $20 billion.) At some point, the bond vigilantes will object to the blatant Federal Reserve efforts to prop up the equity market. When long term interest rates scream higher, it will be Greenspan's fault. If you want a reason to expect higher interest rates, just look at the rising energy costs. Crude oil and natural gas price increases are jolting the CRB index higher. An energy shock is in our future, as is a Federal Reserve failed manipulation debacle.

Now what? One has to step aside while the Federal Reserve is throwing their weight around. It is obviously extremely important to someone in a high place to have the stock market hold current levels. Much energy and many tens of billions of dollars are being spent to prop up the stock market at irrational levels. Someone has a plan to pump up stock prices in order to stimulate the economy. I think this is folly, but it can be painful to stand in the way of the elephant stampede. The stock market is in the last throes of a liquidity driven rally. Wait for a drop below the steep uptrending support lines and then sell the market aggressively. But, wait for the sell signal!

The Federal Reserve is pushing mega-amounts of liquidity into the financial system during this time of rising geopolitical risk. On Wednesday, $5 billion of overnight repos were added. On Tuesday, $5.5 billion of 2 day repos were added. The most important thing to know is that at the close of business tomorrow (8/21), a total of $24.5 billion matures. In other words, by Friday morning, there will be a very large liquidity drain (reduced by the amount of liquidity added on Thursday and Friday). In not too many more days, the external shockrisk will exceed the market propping power of the Federal Reserve's liquidity injections. The “tipping point” will be reached. Stocks remain obscenely overvalued and overbought. I would expect the stock market to exhibit a nervous equilibrium again on Thursday. Friday may be the day the underlying trendline support gives way.

Watch the Fed's OMO liquidity injection of Friday. If the Fat Cats on Wall Street are going to be saved, the Fed will need to be very aggressive with fresh liquidity injections on Friday morning."
 
With regard to those Chinesenumbers I agree they are just pivot points R1 +2 and S1 + 17,

I am going to do a test on the FT100 future puting bracket buy sell limit stops with 5 point trailing stops on my I.B. TadeStation.

According to there optomistic figures 80% of the time I should make at least 5 points(10point-5 trailing stop) and 20% of the time loose 5 points with my tailing stop. This should give an average of 4 points per day with one contract.

Don't exspect it to work..but we'll see Eh?
 
Intel has just raised its Q3 sales expectation (a surprise for markets and NASDAQ futures have jumped) so if the US markets cannot go better on this what will drive them?
 
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Frugi,
thanks for that.He seems to confirm what I had suspicions of.
The FED have intervened in other markets previously; gold,bonds,etc.. so the thought that they wouldn't in a supposed free market such as equities is perhaps naive...

thanks again
 
Someone posted a link to a site that showed when the fed was injecting funds.It may have been Bonsai.
 
Well done Frugi for posting that quote, at least it got the thread back on track!

As I started to read it I was thinking of the bubble created at the end of 1999 (Y2K issues) and RH then he goes on to mention the Y2K issue itself, it seems that history could be repeating itself here. I haven't copmpared the rise in the charts over the end of 1999 to the current rally but I would imagine they would look fairly similar, either way it doesn't bode well for the markets.
 
One could get quite bearish here, despite the holiday on Monday. Great and unexpected news from Intel and the S&P500 falls away........ Two days in a row and the FTSE100 gives the vast majority of its gains to close barely changed. The FTSE250 meanwhile does its own thing...(that will please Bonsai on his return from sailing)

Tricky day to trade. No real momentum all day until Intel announcement, then a spike up followed by a quick fall away. You would have to be fairly fleet of foot and brave to deal ahead of a long weekend.
 
As they say it is not the news but how the market reacts to it that is important. So far that has to be a negative.
 
good morning all

just had an horrendous computer dysfunctional response !

Having to reload windows on a clean install and re-install all
my software.
Its gonna take days and days.
don't you just hate microsoft ? when a plan falls apart !

btw, I'd be surprised if we dont break 4200 on this move down
We havent strictly seen Dark Cloud cover, but its the next best thing.

edit
just correcting a typo.
 
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That is very odd!I had a new hard-drive installed last Thursday week,as I was told that this was the problem by pc world.(Under Warranty). This morning I got a kernel_data_inpage_error and everything went haywire. PC world have now booked an engineer to replace my harddrive AND motherboard.I rang back and told them that 'Windows has recovered from a serious error' message had appeared but I still think I'll let them go ahead as this will hopefully sort it. Seems odd for two to happen on same day?! Pc World didn't think it was a virus. Odd all the same.
 
jonnyy
you seem to have had a run of problems.

my problems also originated with PC World engineers.
they fitted incompatible equipment.
 
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