FTSE 100 intraday trading - JULY 2003

bonsai

Veteren member
I have searched the web but I cannot find anybody he
sounds confident about their own count.
That is unusual in my experience.

I have an alternative which is the expanded flat correction
cguesty mentioned.
That starts at 4450 last aug with ABC down to 3277 making A
and we are now in a B
I quite like that because B waves are notoriously confusing
and there is a single stair tread right at the start of A so
we may well retest that high.
And just when everybodyis proclaiming the worst is over BANG.

The C wave may go to 2468.
 

sumathik

Junior member
thank you all for helping me to improve my knowledge.
I have this crazy thought of mine .
every where the talk is we are in a bear market and a new bull has started/underway. What i am thinking is we are still in a macro bull market ,and we had the wave 2 down in 1987 and currently wave4down from 2000 highs.still wave 5 to come but it will be a failed 5. then abc correction to last for few years.
Then we are looking to start the bear market which will last for a while.
The reason is if we are in a bear market how come we are still trading in high valuations.And dow has'nt even touched 50%retracement.
It took nikkei to fall from 40000 to under 8000 in 20 years.
in between we had a big bounce from 20000 to 30000 before the falls to <8000

Does it make any sense
 

mully

Established member
My problem with EW is that its like alcohol to an acoholic. EW feeds the very basic human need to have order/certainty. It is great in retrospective but highly distorting in real time. I have alot of sympathy with Piper's view of EW. If you can see a very clear 5 waves then take notice and expect (no assurance mind you) that a correction is due. Otherwise be very cautious towards it. What is wrong with basic support/resistence? KISS. Why confuse the picture. In my experience, dabbling in EW only fuels my need to find order. It is great fun after hours, but not for real life!
 

mully

Established member
Watch intra-day low of 4125 on 28/07/03
 

mully

Established member
Next support is high of 4115.2 on 22/07 and low of 4116.2 on 24/07. Then if that fails 4044. Any thoughts?
 

bonsai

Veteren member
mully
agree absolutely
but then I don't know of anyone who trades Elliott.
I know a lot of people have GET.

great fun though.
 

mully

Established member
bonsai

Here is another person who has GET, Elliott Wave Analyser- all part of the learning process that adds to the overall cost of trading. But at least I am wiser.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
if you have GET then have you thought about this?

after a 1/2 a move above the 1 high is likely to be the
start of 3.
if not could be a C with 1/2 converting to A/B
either way there is likely to be a profit in it and a close stop.
any thoughts ?
 

boy

Established member
sorry for the delay in posting a reply, bonsai yes, i gave it a bit leeway to circa 98, still not out of the woods yet so time stop may come into play.
 

be-positive

Veteren member
Well done Bonsai on your (+22)

Could you please tell us at what time/price you entered and closed this trade ( thanks in advance)
 

boy

Established member
out @9.5, not exciting i know and it may continue going up but i got stuff to do and so didnt want to give back any.

by for now.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
be positive
that's not the firsttime you have asked me.

I'm concerned your'e trying to use the same trigger points
as me.

you must do your own thing.
 

hungrybear

Active member
Ftse Ew

Interesting to see all the different possibilities for the Ftse. I hadn't considered the flat correction. I don't think this is likely as the Ftse hit a precise 61.8% retracement on March 12th (from all time high back towards opening price). This suggests it was an impulsive corrective wave - ie most likely either the A-wave or a complete ABC (unlikely). If it's the A-wave, then we're currently correcting the complete drop from the 1999/2000 highs, in which case the current correction should have some time left in it - should be a time correlation with the main wave down.

There is also likely to be a correlation with Wall St markets, which are unlikely to crash before the 2004 election. There is also the correlation, albeit with a 10 year time lag, to the Japanese bear market, which had a long correction at this stage. All this points to the Ftse currently being in wave a of an abc correcting the wave 4 A wave down from 2000. In that respect, the a-wave for the Ftse can be either 3 or 5 waves! :rolleyes:

All IMO of course and I'll be ready to change it if action says otherwise. In any event, the high is either in or will be in within a few weeks, then it should be down for most of the remainder of this year. :devilish:
 

bonsai

Veteren member
hungry bear.
I dont like the flat correction much either
mainly because the fall to 3277 looks more like a natural fall to the low. I have that marked down as the end of C making BIG A.

What ever the wave count is for the subsequent rally to where we are now, I think we are in for a whole series of rather large
rolling corrections for some, maybe many years.
and new lows along the way.

With interest rates already at lows and inflation not an issue
I can see no engine for growth on the horizon and the number
and weight of stale bulls grimly hanging on is intimidating.

I also dont think there is much if anything the politicians can
do about it.
And the current Gordon tax policies on things like Pension funds have virtually killed that market.
 
 
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