FTSE 100 intraday trading - JULY 2003

[bonsai]

I have searched the web but I cannot find anybody he
sounds confident about their own count.
That is unusual in my experience.

I have an alternative which is the expanded flat correction
cguesty mentioned.
That starts at 4450 last aug with ABC down to 3277 making A
and we are now in a B
I quite like that because B waves are notoriously confusing
and there is a single stair tread right at the start of A so
we may well retest that high.
And just when everybodyis proclaiming the worst is over BANG.

The C wave may go to 2468.

 

[boy]

taken a long @ 6.5

 

[bonsai]

boy
I see you have played this game before.

presume you have something like 98 as your stop ?

 

[sumathik]

thank you all for helping me to improve my knowledge.
I have this crazy thought of mine .
every where the talk is we are in a bear market and a new bull has started/underway. What i am thinking is we are still in a macro bull market ,and we had the wave 2 down in 1987 and currently wave4down from 2000 highs.still wave 5 to come but it will be a failed 5. then abc correction to last for few years.
Then we are looking to start the bear market which will last for a while.
The reason is if we are in a bear market how come we are still trading in high valuations.And dow has'nt even touched 50%retracement.
It took nikkei to fall from 40000 to under 8000 in 20 years.
in between we had a big bounce from 20000 to 30000 before the falls to <8000

Does it make any sense

 

[mully]

My problem with EW is that its like alcohol to an acoholic. EW feeds the very basic human need to have order/certainty. It is great in retrospective but highly distorting in real time. I have alot of sympathy with Piper's view of EW. If you can see a very clear 5 waves then take notice and expect (no assurance mind you) that a correction is due. Otherwise be very cautious towards it. What is wrong with basic support/resistence? KISS. Why confuse the picture. In my experience, dabbling in EW only fuels my need to find order. It is great fun after hours, but not for real life!

 

[mully]

As an example 4130 support just gone and quick fall away to 4120.

 

[mully]

Watch intra-day low of 4125 on 28/07/03

 

[mully]

Next support is high of 4115.2 on 22/07 and low of 4116.2 on 24/07. Then if that fails 4044. Any thoughts?

 

[mully]

last message had dates out by a day. Can't seem to read my charts correctly!

 

[bonsai]

mully
agree absolutely
but then I don't know of anyone who trades Elliott.
I know a lot of people have GET.

great fun though.

 

[bonsai]

I'm looking at a fib at 4115.

and closed for +22

 

[mully]

bonsai

Here is another person who has GET, Elliott Wave Analyser- all part of the learning process that adds to the overall cost of trading. But at least I am wiser.

 

[bonsai]

if you have GET then have you thought about this?

after a 1/2 a move above the 1 high is likely to be the
start of 3.
if not could be a C with 1/2 converting to A/B
either way there is likely to be a profit in it and a close stop.
any thoughts ?

 

[boy]

sorry for the delay in posting a reply, bonsai yes, i gave it a bit leeway to circa 98, still not out of the woods yet so time stop may come into play.

 

[be-positive]

Well done Bonsai on your (+22)

Could you please tell us at what time/price you entered and closed this trade ( thanks in advance)

 

[boy]

out @9.5, not exciting i know and it may continue going up but i got stuff to do and so didnt want to give back any.

by for now.

 

[bonsai]

be positive
that's not the firsttime you have asked me.

I'm concerned your'e trying to use the same trigger points
as me.

you must do your own thing.

 

[be-positive]

L :cheesy: L

 

[hungrybear]

Ftse Ew

Interesting to see all the different possibilities for the Ftse. I hadn't considered the flat correction. I don't think this is likely as the Ftse hit a precise 61.8% retracement on March 12th (from all time high back towards opening price). This suggests it was an impulsive corrective wave - ie most likely either the A-wave or a complete ABC (unlikely). If it's the A-wave, then we're currently correcting the complete drop from the 1999/2000 highs, in which case the current correction should have some time left in it - should be a time correlation with the main wave down.

There is also likely to be a correlation with Wall St markets, which are unlikely to crash before the 2004 election. There is also the correlation, albeit with a 10 year time lag, to the Japanese bear market, which had a long correction at this stage. All this points to the Ftse currently being in wave a of an abc correcting the wave 4 A wave down from 2000. In that respect, the a-wave for the Ftse can be either 3 or 5 waves!

All IMO of course and I'll be ready to change it if action says otherwise. In any event, the high is either in or will be in within a few weeks, then it should be down for most of the remainder of this year.

 

[bonsai]

hungry bear.
I dont like the flat correction much either
mainly because the fall to 3277 looks more like a natural fall to the low. I have that marked down as the end of C making BIG A.

What ever the wave count is for the subsequent rally to where we are now, I think we are in for a whole series of rather large
rolling corrections for some, maybe many years.
and new lows along the way.

With interest rates already at lows and inflation not an issue
I can see no engine for growth on the horizon and the number
and weight of stale bulls grimly hanging on is intimidating.

I also dont think there is much if anything the politicians can
do about it.
And the current Gordon tax policies on things like Pension funds have virtually killed that market.