Dow Intraday Charts 08 Dec - 12 Dec

Nothing wrong in taking clues from ES.... vol div there on 10 min too - and 5 min, to go with the Doji.
 
Quercus said:
Guys I'm currently fence sitting - partly due to a string of non-winning trades. I've had a run of a dozen losing/scratch trades and it's REALLY interesting from a psyche point of view. It seems to lead to analysis paralysis and a strong "gun shy" feeling.
Anyway not looking for sympathy but others who have been there probably know what I'm talking about!
Cheers
Quercus

Paper trade for a while. Take some time off away from the screen.
You will be ok when you return to the fray - we have all been there.
 
I sure do Q. I had a horrible day yesterday that involved a costly spree of impulse buying and stop trigger paralysis. Really thought I'd grown out of those hideous vices, but of course they lurk round the corner of every single trading day ready to catch one unawares. But remember that a dozen losing trades that were taken according to your system were almost certainly good trades and valuable lessons can be learnt from them. Nowt wrong with being a bit gun shy either - it stops one overtrading for a start and patience is one of the great trading virtues. The day I opened my IB account I made 32 trades and ended up down about $100 (mostly commission!). I find this happens when I start enjoying myself too much with new toys.
 
ChartMan,

By vol div do you mean the sell volume is decreasing despite new lows being made? If you take yesterday into account there is certainly a decreasing sell volume pattern from about 7.30pm to now, with the doji perhaps displaying a sell climax.
 
Cheers Neil and the others, I know I'm not alone.
Off to The Cook Islands on Sunday for a week, so that's sure to help!:cool:
I'll be in my shorts all dayCM!
Maybe even the trunks too Frugi!!(You of the sore fingers! 32 in a day - Phew!) 32's a magic number too!
Q
 
Frugi, in a candle stick course by Steve nison, I was taught that so-called southern doji's are not very reliable signals. So watch out, especially on st charts like 10mins.
Quercus, know what you are feeling, string of losses can be very paralysing. I would recommend (if you don't mind me doing) re-read CM's DOW note and try (no, do) to stick to the rules, keep size small, especially if your entry is on crossing 100ema as opposed to the "safe entry" after pullback.
Good luck

As we speak, I have twice been stopped out at scratch on shorts, but can't help looking biased to this market. It just feels as if it is going to be (much) lower. Is current trading just working away oversold nature of market or are we forming a base? Looking at rest of market I see small caps again underperforming and in DOW quite low RSI ratio on this pullback.
I'll be trying on next crossing down of 100ema!
 
Well fellow memebrs, looks like you can trade my trading views. Just do the opposite!!! Dow up 20+pts within minutes after posting bearish views.
 
dont like the look of the bounce off 9950 resistance - decided to take profit at 9940 & await solid break of 9950/60 or 9910/00
 
Frugi - U got it right on the Vol.
ND top is right.
D top at 58 is right
So now what's the plan?
Wait for 58 to break?
1 min is a "W", target 10K....
5 min RS Switch
Vol gone thin on ES.
9964 pullback for a safe long?
or 9960+ for the gamble?
stop would be 9950....
 
my short got taken out - now gone short again at 9950 - think that W is doomed :(

PS - can't believe what happened after that 3pk ND !
 
JE - not really, just today - the mkt is very volatile - shld have stayed out - mostly gone horribly wrong - hoping for that one big one which will make up for all those losses today.

Otherwise, I'm gonna be bit upset :(
 
Quercus, dont worry.

I think the worst I got was 18 losers on the trot when I was spreadbetting. You are absolutely right about it generating the "oh god, not another loser...shall I/shan't I?" feeling. Of course then it does do what you think it should, and you kick yourself for not acting on it. Like Frugi says, we've all been there.

I read a good book that pretty much put paid to it in the end : Mark Douglas' "Trading in the Zone". Its only the first few chapters that are any good imo so you may not want to buy the whole book but in any case its not expensive.

Keep your chin up! :D
 
I know what its like. Getting the entry right and pressing the button are to hard things.
 
right, in hindsight, here's the plan :

long at 9920, short at 9950, long at 9920, short at .......

now just need to turn the clock back a bit ........

or, if it can keep this up for the next few days .......
 
Quercus – Have fun in the Cook Islands (jealous or what!! :mad: )

My solution to a bad patch is to reduce the stake to a minimum and don’t enter a trade unless there are at least three ‘positives’ – for a long entry these might be PD on RSI/ above 100ma/bull flag (etc etc) – take profits very frequently to (avoid getting caught up in a sudden reversal!) – the object is to make most trades a ‘success’ even in a small way to build up/restore the confidence.

If a trade goes against you, cut at a maximum loss of 5 points over the spread so your losses are minimal, and to get you into the discipline of cutting early rather than late - don’t wait for 30 point auto-stops to get you out – if a trade has gone against you by that much, it was simply a very bad entry or late exit!

I think that one of the most important things in trading is to keep yourself on a psychological ‘upper’ if possible (difficult at times!!)

HTH - Regards :D
 
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