Things do look a tad bearish CM, with steep ND setting in on the 60min chart….
Perhaps it will deliver when they sell the good ISM data news that we will apparently be seeing tomorrow….!
The fate of the dollar could also influence things:-
"Investors so far have been willing to overlook the dollar's drop because it has been an orderly one," he said. "If the decline momentum accelerates on the downside, foreign investors might become more worried about investing in U.S. financial assets."
Q:- does the t/a drive the news or does the news drive the t/a (might have to phone a friend on that one… )
Hi chartman and tradesmart, looking at your chart and your prediction, what would have to change in order for you to change your prediction, eg volume ticking up etc.. would such a thing in moderation have such a dramatic change or gradual,also how would you guestimate your direction, or would you wait for a break, (Maybe the obviouse is in there August 7 and october 6 shows a decline in volume, is there a resistance level here? or another explaination?)
Went long on the pullback @9835 around 2.45PM or so- stop at 9814. Got a bit worried when it continued down but RSI/Price was weak - saw a bear triangle - more worries but it broke to the upside - still in as it test the '64
15.40 bit nerve racking this - almost given up all my points - stop moved to 9835 - have had 2Pk ND - waiting for 3rd - if it happens !
15.54 looks like a bear triangle forming - tempted to close.
16.00 on the other hand, could be developing into a bull flag - in hindsight, should have closed around '64 break and waited for another entry
16.15 - I can't read this - got the break of my bull flag but now hitting the '64 again - closed for 30 odd points. Gonna wait now.
17.30 short on the 3PK ND top @ 9885
17.10 - stopped out at 7880 - once again, in hindsigt should't have shorted - but it did look like a dbl top with ND ....
16.52 looks too strong and I think maybe a bull tri forming - looking to close as close to my open as poss.
17.30 - short at dbltop 9865
17.40 - ridiculous thing to do - move down was so weak - should have avoided the short - think i'm guilty of overtrading today - once again, will try and close for minimal loss - down 4 at the mo.
18.08 - closed at break even - phew !
Messed it all up after a good start - should have stayed lon, but the drop of 30 odd points when the price first hit 9870 spooked me. Even so, should not have gone short at any point 'cos the move downs were all weak.
Right now, its weak too - maybe a long ?
18.20 last trade of the day for me - long from 9867.
18.30 closed for a point - guess i needed a win ........
I can't handle these trend days - keep on expecting it to switch around and hence the above disasters. Guess it's a matter of confidence and practice.
Head in the noose time..... Looks like utter rubbish now, but that's what comes of making a prediction and putting it down on paper for all to see.
But then you should always trade what you see and not what you guess/think may happen.The channel breakout was a clear signal that the possible H&S was finished.
As Mom said, tricky day... but that said, the entry should have been picked up on the opening triangle. That gave T1, which in turn gave 9865 from the pulback. And that's where things got tricky..... The next rise looked like a 3 pk ND top and out...well, maybe,but there was a triangle in RSI and definitely not a short here as the uptrend support held in the price, leading into another, more definite, ND top. Here3, the short was an option as the last up move showed weakness in the RSI ratio. A test of 64 and fail and weakness again in the up move RSI ratio, and then a test of 32 . A cover should have come from the bounce on 40 and Inv. H&S on RSI. That was followed by a retest of 64 on the way back up, closing at HOD....
Other posters suggest 10K and a Xmas rally. I wouldn't disagree with that right now......
If you were watching ES 5 min cahrt, there would have been no doubt that 9832 was a bottom- huge volume spike and the 1 min chart had volume divergence. What more could you ask for?
CM, the thing that got me after the 3PK ND short was the weakness in the down move approx 1:2 price/rsi - that's why I closed my short when it hit around the '64 area. I had spotted it testing the 100EMA and would normally have stuck to the short.
I guess if I'd stuck to the +-20 rule, it would have worked out but was reluctant to give up more points.
Is there a case for sometimes ignoring the price/rsi bit? I guess when other TA says the opposite?
BTW, just as I was about to pack up and go home around 19.20, I went long at 9845, put in a stop at 9825. Was going to close when it kept on zooming down but was wary of missing my train so thought I'd let the electronic stop do the work
well looking at the daily trendline support that prices have been underneath and now clearly back on top, weekly long term is holding, futures at this time indicating dow to open 9880 ish i'll be cheering it through 9900, just have to see if weight off the side follows with it..
MOM , I've just taken a closer look at the ratios.... the middle drop from 9890 to 9880 gave 0.26. the next drop to 9864 gave 0.47 , as you correctly calculated. Perhaps there is a case for taking a relative view, drop to drop/ rise to rise, to see if there is any change in strength.... Clearly in this case, the change was quite big, from 0.25 to 0.5 ish, almost a doubling in the ratio ... the up move was 0.32.....
You're right.... holding a position that was a winner and seeing it going against you almost into loss is one of the toughest calls..... I think that a minimum leeway on the dow has to be 20 points or some other overriding factor, before you take an exit against you... If 20 points is too painful, reduce the stake size. In time, you'll get more experienced in making the correct decision on tough calls. Some you will hold, some you will close out quicker.
I was looking at the channel from the open....considering a short at the loss of support and the 64. Checked on ES Volume and saw it was divergent, ie 3 lower lows in vol and 3 lower lows in price. This usually means a bottom, so I took a long instead of a short. RSI was below 30 too, so not a lot of room for the short.