Dow Intraday charts 15 Dec - 19 Dec

Newtron Bomb

Experienced member
1,602 87
Hiya folks

Can people who do post charts please not post with a black background and for preference no background as it makes doing the summary a lot easier for those who want to print it off.

Thank you
Have a good weeks trading
Newtron Bomb
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Perusing the Dow weekend prices on a certain leading SB's website, some 'shorts' must have thought all of their Christmas's had come at once..........! :cheesy:

edit Monday:- shorts can now cover at 10150 which may be a good deal compared to what's coming....... :eek:
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
Dow traders suffer from Saddam shock?

Hi All,
I see that no new posts with views and observations since TS's post of yesterday. Surely CM is looking for 5000 views this week ;) ; so let me kick off the debate:

Todays' trading pattern must be a flag, aren't flags things hanging on a mast? This then must be a bull flag or are rules different for gaps?
Next target? 10170/90?

I am keen to hear from the experts?
 

frugi

1
1,827 126
Hi bgold,

I'm no expert but this looks more like a bearish descending triangle to me with support on ES at R1 1075/6 and Dow 10095. I also notice that the Dow failed to maintain its breakout from the long term 10 minute channel this morning. Not exactly a gap and trap but I bet a few bulls were expecting more follow through than they received. however if it does turn out to be a bull flag, breaking above 10140 again I think the target is around 10180 as you say.

Anyway I learnt a useful lesson today - don't hold overnights without guaranteed stops! Ouch.
 

One Eyed Shark

Well-known member
257 13
Afternoon BG

Not so sure on the flag theory, though last week did set a precedent for a very long flags ( I think CM named it a "limo" flag).

My take so far is range bound consolidation, the bulls had the opportunity to take the cash index much higher on the open as futures were pointing to an equivalent c10160 on the Dow cash.
Have they run out of steam ??????

looking to trade a break of consolidation in either direction, though will be happier short.
 

frugi

1
1,827 126
Sorry folks I know I should keep these snippets to the chat room really.

Just one last point - ES 10 min chart now resembles a limo [(c)hartman 2003] bull flag (a long downsloping channel following a significant move up), falling boundaries currently at 1073/1077. Dow approx 10078/10108. Could trade the range or wait for the breakout I s'pose.

But I think if ES falls much below 1073/4, i.e. below the gap it just closed and the channel (flag?) bottom, then we have an "Oops" setup that will be sold into fiercely. This occurs after a gap up (or down) when the pric then fails to follow through and goes below (above) the previous day's high (low) by a few ticks. However I don't know if this applies after the market has been open for this long - perhaps it is more of a first hour phenomenon?
 
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JE2000

Active member
141 0
please keep posting. quite interesting to read.

Looks the downtrend is intact and the 10070 has broken
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Watch out!
As we move into the close, note that this morning’s higher open may be followed by a close under yesterday’s close would produce an outside down day or bearish engulfing pattern.
This could be a very bearish sign and possibly point to that the market may have topped in a more significant manner.
For DOW the level would be 10042 and even a close at current levels nl 10057 looks dodgy, actually is a gravestone doji!
 

One Eyed Shark

Well-known member
257 13
Agree that from the candlestick point of view the daily chart is showing the potential for some downside.

Ended up printing a shooting star for the day, maybe we are turning down or maybe the guys in NY are just feeling a litlle festive :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

Didn't enjoy trading today, made some points scalping early on , then gave most of them back when I got too clever. :(
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Here's the take, and we were chatting about this at the party... News spikes almost always return to par. Let's consider today's action without the spike. What do we have? A close down of a few points. No big deal. Forget that news and get back to the overall picture. We are still in the main up channel, moving towards support. WE have to discount the indicators for a while as they are screwed and don't reflect the normal picture. We can only count on the price. RSI may well drop to sub 20, but we just need to follow the price action.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
I don't see how anyone could(should) have done anything but stay short all day. Not a lot of TA on offer, save the bear triangle that gave a 20 point target of 10,080 and the pullback around the 64 to give 32 as a target... Still plenty of sellers on ES towards the close with a couple of big buys near the end so a mixed signal. I think there is room to move down to 9980 for support.
 

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