Dow Intraday Charts 08 Dec - 12 Dec

[frugi]

ES 10 min reverse triangle target 1072. Potential double top 1072.75 (from 3 Dec). Good place to short if we get there imho.

 

[bgold]

Frugi, I would agree. At least another test of previous highs in ES at near 1073 which see DOW at 10035ish.

This market still has some umpfh to push higher, but looking at ES, it just feels like strong hands distributing risk to weak hands. Maybe, I am biased but money flow was down in both ES and YM from 14:45 onward. I believe a sign that trading happens at the bid. My Accumul/Distribution chart also displays less strength in the post 19:00 rally.

Perhaps others who know more about these indicators can comment.

For now my target is DOW 10035 & YM H4 at 10k

 

[frugi]

Cheers for that bgold you've convincingly reinforced my view. Interesting thought about distribution - the market always looks best at the top and that's when new bagholders are created in droves.

Short ES 1072.50, stop 1074

 

[frugi]

Covered at 1070.50 +2. That me 4 for the day, off for some supper.

Edit: Should have had more patience, as usual

 

[ChartMan]

Nice call Frugi and Bgold. 1072 was the better call with the corresponding DOW at 10,025. Neil suggested an early bull flag, which eventually did turn out to be one although it seemed like having to wait all day for it to turn.
10K it is, and I make the bull flag target 10.060 and we're a long way off that. Yesterday's big closing volume suggested a move up today and that's what we got.RSI goes in tramlines too, so watch for a 10 min pullback to the 40 line, maybe. If we were that strong, we'd have closed at HOD. Having said that, it was only 12 points off and ES post market is back at 1072.
The rounded top is now definitely cancelled....

 

[ChartMan]

What an utterly boring day...almost. Highlight was the bounce off 64 for a long to take us over the 10K and an out at 022 at the ND top for a decent amount of points. I missed it, but the expanding triangle seen by Frugi and Bgold provided the key to the breakout. I doesn't seem to me that this has the feel of continuing straight off tomorrow- insufficient volume. The market is not convinced. So I suggest we pullback to 64. But don't bank on it!

 

[tradesmart]

The daily chart tells a meaningful story of higher prices and lower indicators.

Also note the current leg up from 9600 in November, has been longer than previous with no significant pullback......

Not that I'm trying to suggest anything......!

 

[copper03]

Markets Topping?

Whow, 10,000 for the Dow!

But watch out? Substantial resistance overhead!

At 10,041, the DOW will have corrected a fibonacci 61.8% of its decline from the all-time high.

 

[tradesmart]

Copper – very useful info – thanks

I think that a lot of traders are anticipating a significant pullback imminently, but as usual, timing is everything….

How far they’ll want to take the Santa Rally I don’t know, but certainly 10041 is a number to watch for……will we see it today?!?

I thought it was going to tank 100 just now, but there are still plenty of bulls about…..

 

[ChartMan]

Where did 10,041 come from? Long time ago..... concentradte on 10.025, then 32 then 64.
And watch ES vol too. Spot on div at LOD...

 

[tradesmart]

'Yogi' Bear has a laugh as the Dow struggles with 10k.....!

 

[ChartMan]

I think we're off. vol building nicely as we approch HOD.
Res at 18 gone so it's do or die time...

 

[anmolway]

hi huys, i am assuming everyone is seeing the triangle formation

 

[tradesmart]

I took a pre-market short at 10035 just on the basis of "it can't stay up here" and covered at 9978 at 15.00gmt (trading by the clock!! )

I was quite surprised by the way it took off back into the 10k's again and it's obvious that there's a bull/bear battle going on, so now on the sidelines for fear of getting whipsawed.......

Shocking dilemma to be in........ :cheesy:

ps:-anmolway, I see the triangle which looks bullish, but a bit hesitant to take a long at these levels.....

 

[bgold]

ammolway, I agree.
But havaen't I read somewhere that triangles breaking near the apex (crossing of lines) tend to be weak? I think to be proper they should breakout at about 2/3rds (don't take my word i still have to my exams!!)

 

[ChartMan]

ES 1 min shows a clear bear flag....vol diminishing. DOW looks bull for sure.
Triangle on RSI and CCI.
Stay out til 32 I guess.

 

[anmolway]

thanks bgold for the warning
and thanks cm for the traingle ingo - didn't see that

cheers
anmolway

 

[anmolway]

sorry that should be ascending triangle on the dow and
a bear flag on the spx with also a triangle extending from yesterdays highs

 

[tradesmart]

I was thinking that the triangle target might be 10055 ish....

is this bull....?!

 

[ChartMan]

No, it's the truth. :cheesy:
I have it at 60 ish. Trouble is vol is not increasing.... RSI needs to move down , 32 has to go and we need more vol to carry on up.
A pullback to 20 might do it...