Brexit and the Consequences

Atilla

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Nov 15, 2006
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a hard brexit doesn't mean no immigration.
Farmers have concern. Should be noted in contrast to fishing industries concerns.

Brexit will mean farming exports to EU will be taxed at much higher rates than the 3-10% quoted for WTO.

As UK is a net importer of food stuff, prices will rise dramatically if tariffs levied.
 

forker

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Jul 12, 2008
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Farmers have concern. Should be noted in contrast to fishing industries concerns.

Brexit will mean farming exports to EU will be taxed at much higher rates than the 3-10% quoted for WTO.

As UK is a net importer of food stuff, prices will rise dramatically if tariffs levied.
prices rise and economies adapt with new opportunity. Don't forget that we are going to open new trade routes so it will start balancing out. The EU will need to be vary careful how they tax us because we are ultimately a contributor to their GDP. If they force an environment where we will seek alternatives it will make things worse for them (like cutting your nose off to spite your face). Anyway it is interesting that Merkel has now suggested that immigration should be on the table.
 

barjon

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a hard brexit doesn't mean no immigration.
Yeah, the trouble is no-one knows what brexit means. An emotional decision with no facts or coherent forward plan to back it up. A few dreamy maybes - some backed off from immediately, some from a somewhat arrogant assumption (the "they need us more than we need them" syndrome), some which may or may not be pie in the sky.

What a fkg shambles.
 

forker

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To me it means a clean cut. If they want to slam tariffs well it will be their own demise. There is a reason they are struggling to grow and that is because they are not competitive globally. Change is coming and the euro elites will need to face change or they will be torn apart from within. Next year there is Netherlands, Germany, Hungary, France, and Czech having elections. All of these places have a rising right and don't be alarmed if one of them wins and they flag their intentions to leave. The eu can't expect free movement of people to be a viable policy moving forward. Immigration is good but it can't be open doors. The fact Merkel has suggested its on the table shows a recognition that its a growing problem that has dire consequences.
 

barjon

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To me it means a clean cut. If they want to slam tariffs well it will be their own demise. There is a reason they are struggling to grow and that is because they are not competitive globally. Change is coming and the euro elites will need to face change or they will be torn apart from within. Next year there is Netherlands, Germany, Hungary, France, and Czech having elections. All of these places have a rising right and don't be alarmed if one of them wins and they flag their intentions to leave. The eu can't expect free movement of people to be a viable policy moving forward. Immigration is good but it can't be open doors. The fact Merkel has suggested its on the table shows a recognition that its a growing problem that has dire consequences.
You may well be right but I think the EU will fight hard to hold itself together. With the dangers of break up you foresee do you think it is more or less likely that they will agree a favourable (for U.K.) trade deal? The greater the danger the more they will play hardball imo.
 

Atilla

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The only way it can hold itself together is change.

Not necessarily.

Laggards can leave.

Commissioners who make informed decisions based on research and study can lead to better outcomes than in some democracies where politicians play to the people's prejudices making false promises that can't be delivered.

Heard someone say there isn't enough cement to build a 2000m wall along the Mexican border. Sounds good though. We are going to build a Great Wall to keep them out. It's going to be wonderful big and beautiful. We are going to do fantastic things.

Isn't it ironic Ford is moving small car production to Mexico.


I like the EU. It works very well for UK interests. The other side of the wall is not a pretty sight.


As for that new motion, it's going to be along the lines of migrants welcome but only if you have a job first.

Considering UK unemployment is lowest it has been for quite some time, the argument that migrants are benefit seekers does fall flat on it's face. :idea:
 

timsk

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Mar 18, 2002
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. . .What a fkg shambles.
Language Jon, language. Not what we expect from the forum's elder statesman!
:p

Personally, I see no evidence that the whole thing is a "fkg shambles". What I do see is a lack of patience from the remain camp who want instant answers to complex questions. That the government are taking their time and playing their cards close to their chest makes perfect sense - it's the wisest course of action and is to be expected.

An analogy would be helpful here, I think. Suppose Jon that you and Mrs. barjon decided to move to Madeira. The big decision would be whether or not to do it at all. Once that decision is made, then comes the task of finding somewhere to live there, selling your home in the U.K. or renting it out etc. These decisions are all secondary. Friends and family aren't going to accuse your plans of being a "fkg shambles" just because you can't tell them your address in Madeira, or if you'll have enough spare rooms to accommodate all of them if they all want to come out to visit you at Christmas.
Tim.
 

Atilla

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That the government are taking their time and playing their cards close to their chest makes perfect sense - it's the wisest course of action and is to be expected.
You see Tim, as per the Parliamentary Brexit exit committee debate the other day, UK expects EU to run Article 50 with 218 and 207 in parallel.

However, it is difficult to negotiate trading rules going forward when the UK hasn't determined for her self what the priorities are and how it should look.

So UK expects to dilly dally along with and then expect the EU to play fair ball in negotiations.

Would you not agree that EU is entitled to see the end of Article 50 before it starts new agreement process as otherwise no one particularly knows what the starting point is.

Similarly cost of impact is difficult to determine without some indications from Government on what the expected Brexit deal is, otherwise it's impossible to make an informed decision.

I'm afraid too much is made out of this keeping your cards close to ones self as if it is significant.

What will the Government lose by showing her hands?

In fact quite to opposite. There will be greater clarity of outcome. Stakeholders in the UK can express their concern or support.

EU will better about our intentions and start formulating a response.

Business uncertainty will ease helping with investment decisions.

Playing poker games may sound rather grand and wonderful as if the cabinet are doing something so important and wonderful, but quite the opposite is true.

Think it through and see where it takes you. Secrecy is pure politics because the politicians and the Brexit camp haven't a clue and they have discovered the pickle jar they've got themselves in.

It is more than shambles imo. Conservative party is beginning to look like rabbit in headlights with UK business fatalities in site.


My only hope now rests with our Parliamentary process to help scrutinise and enforce checks and balances to ensure correct decision is made protecting the intersts of the UK.


Do you have any little concerns springing out of your curious mind, or are you as strongly convinced on the Brexit deal as before?
 

timsk

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Mar 18, 2002
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Hi Atilla,
. . . Think it through and see where it takes you. . .
I did that at length prior to June 23rd!

. . . . Do you have any little concerns springing out of your curious mind, or are you as strongly convinced on the Brexit deal as before?
100%.
I've heard nothing, read nothing (either on here or elsewhere) and seen nothing that causes me to have any doubts at all that I cast my vote the right way. If anything, events post referendum have confirmed I made the right decision. I know you won't believe that and to you it's as daft and as incomprehensible as insisting that the earth is flat or the moon is made of cheese but, hand on heart, it really is how I feel. Sorry Atilla!
Tim.
 
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Splitlink

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You see Tim, as per the Parliamentary Brexit exit committee debate the other day, UK expects EU to run Article 50 with 218 and 207 in parallel.

However, it is difficult to negotiate trading rules going forward when the UK hasn't determined for her self what the priorities are and how it should look.

So UK expects to dilly dally along with and then expect the EU to play fair ball in negotiations.

Would you not agree that EU is entitled to see the end of Article 50 before it starts new agreement process as otherwise no one particularly knows what the starting point is.

Similarly cost of impact is difficult to determine without some indications from Government on what the expected Brexit deal is, otherwise it's impossible to make an informed decision.

I'm afraid too much is made out of this keeping your cards close to ones self as if it is significant.

What will the Government lose by showing her hands?

In fact quite to opposite. There will be greater clarity of outcome. Stakeholders in the UK can express their concern or support.

EU will better about our intentions and start formulating a response.

Business uncertainty will ease helping with investment decisions.

Playing poker games may sound rather grand and wonderful as if the cabinet are doing something so important and wonderful, but quite the opposite is true.

Think it through and see where it takes you. Secrecy is pure politics because the politicians and the Brexit camp haven't a clue and they have discovered the pickle jar they've got themselves in.

It is more than shambles imo. Conservative party is beginning to look like rabbit in headlights with UK business fatalities in site.


My only hope now rests with our Parliamentary process to help scrutinise and enforce checks and balances to ensure correct decision is made protecting the intersts of the UK.


Do you have any little concerns springing out of your curious mind, or are you as strongly convinced on the Brexit deal as before?
I think that Brexiters want what they believe will happen. After all, Theresa has said Brexit means Bexit, often enough.

I, actually, don't mind now, one way or the other. any more. Unfortunately, that is becoming the attitude of Europeans, in general. By Spring of next year, the world will have movedf on.

The politicians, over here, have serious problems with the Popular sector, which is getting stronger every day. If public opinion swings against UK, then our leaders will need to watch Brussels very carefuly in the negotiations with UK, with regard, what they see as conceding too much.

Will Brexiters feel as happy about delays if, in April, there are more delays in the calendar?
 

forker

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Jul 12, 2008
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The only reason there will be delays is from the ones that don't want brexit and that definitely includes Scotland who want everything their own way regardless of being in a union
 

forker

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Jul 12, 2008
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The government will be ll have to be strong. If Scotland want to be idiots then they need to have another referendum and go do their own thing.
 

forker

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Who does not want things their way? You, for example?
That's a good point but the difference is me wanting my own way isn't going to interfere with the course voted in by a majority (don't tell me it was an even split because clearly one side won) all Scotland cares about is themselves and couldn't care less about the UK even though they are part of it. It's like London doing its own thing
 

barjon

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Language Jon, language. Not what we expect from the forum's elder statesman!
:p

Personally, I see no evidence that the whole thing is a "fkg shambles". What I do see is a lack of patience from the remain camp who want instant answers to complex questions. That the government are taking their time and playing their cards close to their chest makes perfect sense - it's the wisest course of action and is to be expected.

An analogy would be helpful here, I think. Suppose Jon that you and Mrs. barjon decided to move to Madeira. The big decision would be whether or not to do it at all. Once that decision is made, then comes the task of finding somewhere to live there, selling your home in the U.K. or renting it out etc. These decisions are all secondary. Friends and family aren't going to accuse your plans of being a "fkg shambles" just because you can't tell them your address in Madeira, or if you'll have enough spare rooms to accommodate all of them if they all want to come out to visit you at Christmas.
Tim.
Tim

Before we might have made any decision to move to Madeira we would have done a hell of a lot of due diligence about the advantages/disadvantages, difficulties, affordability, etc of living there. We certainly wouldn't have decided on a whim and because some tousle headed buffoon assured us that all would pan out fine as well as promising rich pickings (mostly disappearing as soon as we got there).

Without such due diligence my friends and family would indeed raise their eyebrows at our stupidity.
 
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Not necessarily.

Laggards can leave.

Commissioners who make informed decisions based on research and study can lead to better outcomes than in some democracies where politicians play to the people's prejudices making false promises that can't be delivered.

Heard someone say there isn't enough cement to build a 2000m wall along the Mexican border. Sounds good though. We are going to build a Great Wall to keep them out. It's going to be wonderful big and beautiful. We are going to do fantastic things.

Isn't it ironic Ford is moving small car production to Mexico.


I like the EU. It works very well for UK interests. The other side of the wall is not a pretty sight.


As for that new motion, it's going to be along the lines of migrants welcome but only if you have a job first.

Considering UK unemployment is lowest it has been for quite some time, the argument that migrants are benefit seekers does fall flat on it's face. :idea:
Priceless.

I think you will find that the "laggards" will be those that are left in the dysfunctional club. Any countries with ambition will already have left.

The central planners have lost the argument once again. It's a road to nowhere, as you will find out in due course.:LOL:
 

timsk

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Mar 18, 2002
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I think that Brexiters want what they believe will happen . . .
Hi Split',
I can't speak for my fellow Brexiteers as they may have a different view, but I for one don't want anything other than to leave the EU so that it is just us and our motley crew of politicians who control our future. The principle of the thing is all I care about, period. How that comes about and what form it takes is of interest to me of course, but I'm happy to let the Brexit ministers and government mandarins thrash out the details in their own time. So, other than that we will leave the EU one day (i.e. 'Brexit means Brexit'), I don't want or believe anything will happen.
Tim.