Brexit and the Consequences

[forker]

Is this a cut and paste considering there are no paragraphs in that blurb?

Anyhow the article is confused and inaccurate.

1. To put in context yes the EU does need closer integration. It needs harmonisation of fiscal policy for sure as politicians can't be trusted to do the right thing.

2. Article speaks of EU and then looks into individual countries in the block. If the article wishes to compare apples with apples and pears with pears, it should look at how well states are doing in the US and when comparing to UK how well different counties are doing between North and South divide.

Here are the EU countries growth rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth

ALL EU countries GDP is growing except for Greece but they too will be turning a corner very soon.

3. Article states the same misleading verbal rubbish about EU in decline. Nothing of the sort. Simply that BRIC countries have grown so much faster.

Do you and CV not understand how averages and statistics work? Does anybody in the Brexit camp understand how averages work or is this simply an intentional lie if it is repeated enough times, numpties will accept it as fact?

Knowing how Inquisitor doesn't like being talked down to along with all the other numpties they'll simply accept it as Elitist getting it wrong before, they'll get this one wrong too.

4. When looking at all the countries and how well they have done ideally one should look at the time lines and what has been achieved. All countries go through the economic cycle. UK was the sick man of Europe before it joined the EU and now it is 5th in the world by GDP. That's after 40+ years of membership.

I know some of you think this was all down to Maggie, but you know there are also still many people out there who believe in a benevolent God. I'm sure they've had their time and good purpose but both take the biscuit trying to keep the faith going don't they???

5. I have no idea why you grumble about negative bond yields. Market dictates the cost of holding money. Unless you write about capital flow restrictions then you are free along with everyone else to invest in US bonds.

6. That write up is so off the charts it even has a dig at forecasted rates??? [emoji38] Smacks of desperation does it not?

ECB Mario's statement keeps talking of support but not doing anything. So it's simply nurturing the market on the slow L curve recovery.

EU recovery is working and the data proves it.

Your welcome to try searching snippets of my post to find a source but I should say you will be unsuccessful. Unlike you, who loves cut and past jobs, I do genuine research. You sir have referred to a link that contains an estimate from 2015 and then call out my data which is accurate to be garbage. Can I suggest you start using reputable data source and do some of your own research.

In terms of negative bonds yields, the bond I was referring to is a special bond used to lend money to member states. Having it negative makes it less interesting for people to buy because it has no yield. If you can't understand why it's important then there is just no hope having a conversation with you.

 

[Splitlink]

Is this a cut and paste considering there are no paragraphs in that blurb?

Anyhow the article is confused and inaccurate.

1. To put in context yes the EU does need closer integration. It needs harmonisation of fiscal policy for sure as politicians can't be trusted to do the right thing.

2. Article speaks of EU and then looks into individual countries in the block. If the article wishes to compare apples with apples and pears with pears, it should look at how well states are doing in the US and when comparing to UK how well different counties are doing between North and South divide.

Here are the EU countries growth rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth

ALL EU countries GDP is growing except for Greece but they too will be turning a corner very soon.

3. Article states the same misleading verbal rubbish about EU in decline. Nothing of the sort. Simply that BRIC countries have grown so much faster.

Do you and CV not understand how averages and statistics work? Does anybody in the Brexit camp understand how averages work or is this simply an intentional lie if it is repeated enough times, numpties will accept it as fact?

Knowing how Inquisitor doesn't like being talked down to along with all the other numpties they'll simply accept it as Elitist getting it wrong before, they'll get this one wrong too.

4. When looking at all the countries and how well they have done ideally one should look at the time lines and what has been achieved. All countries go through the economic cycle. UK was the sick man of Europe before it joined the EU and now it is 5th in the world by GDP. That's after 40+ years of membership.

I know some of you think this was all down to Maggie, but you know there are also still many people out there who believe in a benevolent God. I'm sure they've had their time and good purpose but both take the biscuit trying to keep the faith going don't they???

5. I have no idea why you grumble about negative bond yields. Market dictates the cost of holding money. Unless you write about capital flow restrictions then you are free along with everyone else to invest in US bonds.

6. That write up is so off the charts it even has a dig at forecasted rates??? Smacks of desperation does it not?

ECB Mario's statement keeps talking of support but not doing anything. So it's simply nurturing the market on the slow L curve recovery.

EU recovery is working and the data proves it.

The Brexiters would do better to leave Europe alone unless they can get their facts right. From what I am reading about the UK, right now, there is a lot of uncertainty about the pros and cons of what they are doing.

 

[forker]

The Brexiters would do better to leave Europe alone unless they can get their facts right. From what I am reading about the UK, right now, there is a lot of uncertainty about the pros and cons of what they are doing.

What facts are you referring to?

 

[Splitlink]

What facts are you referring to?

You are quite right. You don't have any facts.

 

[Atilla]

Your welcome to try searching snippets of my post to find a source but I should say you will be unsuccessful. Unlike you, who loves cut and past jobs, I do genuine research. You sir have referred to a link that contains an estimate from 2015 and then call out my data which is accurate to be garbage. Can I suggest you start using reputable data source and do some of your own research.

In terms of negative bonds yields, the bond I was referring to is a special bond used to lend money to member states. Having it negative makes it less interesting for people to buy because it has no yield. If you can't understand why it's important then there is just no hope having a conversation with you.

Just referring to what a difficult read it was without paragraphs. I did take your points seriously hence my reply. I always write my own posts and annotate with Italics when they are someone else words too.

With respect to links well it's for academic interest to keep the blog in line with current debate and so forth. They speak for them selves anyhow.

Moving on... are you seriously saying you are able to justify your argument EU is in decline because of just one years data? Is this not unreasonable as GDP data needs to be compiled and verified, adjusted etc before release? Can't take your point here seriously I'm afraid.

Brexit did not occurr because EU GDP is in decline for the last year. It is a fallacious argument constructed by the leave camp and needs to be called out for what it is. A blatant distortion of fact!!! It is a perpertuated lie to put it plainly.


Yes I am aware of the stability facility which is helicopter money. Most countries have this in one form or another. It's ECB providing liquidity to the banking system. Whether you call it a Rescue Plan or a Troubled Asset Relief Program or Financial Stability Facility is neither here or there.


To move the topic onto facts and current debate, what do you think of May's rebuke of Davis and that the Ozzie point style system is not suitable for the UK?

 

[forker]

Just referring to what a difficult read it was without paragraphs. I did take your points seriously hence my reply. I always right my own posts and annotate with Italics when they are someone else words too.

With respect to links well it's for academic interest to keep the blog in line with current debate and so forth. They speak for them selves anyhow.

Moving on... are you seriously saying you are able to justify your argument EU is in decline because of just one years data? Is this not unreasonable as GDP data needs to be compiled and verified, adjusted etc before release? Can't take your point here seriously I'm afraid.

Brexit did not occurr because EU GDP is in decline for the last year. It is a fallacious argument constructed by the leave camp and needs to be called out for what it is. A blatant distortion of fact!!! It is a perpertuated lie to put it plainly.


Yes I am aware of the stability facility which is helicopter money. Most countries have this in one form or another. It's ECB providing liquidity to the banking system. Whether you call it a Rescue Plan or a Troubled Asset Relief Program or Financial Stability Facility is neither here or there.


To move the topic onto facts and current debate, what do you think of May's rebuke of Davis and that the Ozzie point style system is not suitable for the UK?

The figures speak for themselves, I don't need to justify my argument with anything else.

Personally I like the Australian system and the pm's remarks are peculiar. She referred to students getting in by passing the requirements and then go on to stay illegally . This was true on the old student system where any education business could sponsor a student but the new one is different. Students coming into the UK need to attend a licenced tier 4 sponsor and enough money to get by. This has changed from the previous system which was much easier.

Student visas aside as they don't represent the lions share of UK immigration, a work visa in the au system is not black and white. If you get the points to meet the criteria for a standard independent visa, you then go into a pool where au selects based on quota and skills. They choose the best in that pool and you could be in that pool for years without being selected.

The au system works well for au an it's odd why she believes it won't work here.

 

[Atilla]

The figures speak for themselves, I don't need to justify my argument with anything else.

Personally I like the Australian system and the pm's remarks are peculiar. She referred to students getting in by passing the requirements and then go on to stay illegally. I don't think that is a good enough reason to leave it because we should look at the facts again. Students coming into the UK need to attend a licenced tier 4 sponsor and enough money to get by. This has changed from the previous system which was much easier.

Student visas aside as they don't represent the lions share of UK immigration, a work visa in the au system is not black and white. If you get the points to meet the criteria for a standard independent visa, you then go into a pool where au selects based on quota and skills. They choose the best in that pool and you could be in that pool for years without being selected.

The au system works well for au an it's odd why she believes it won't work here.

Well you and the Brexit camp do have to back up your arguments with GDP data otherwise its just a bunch of empty words.

FACT! EU GDP in every country but Greece grew in 2015 year!
FACT! EU largest GDP block in the World!
FACT! EU GDP still growing but not as fast as BRICS.
FACT! That does not mean it is in decline.


With respect to point system entry I agree with you and always had the Australian model as a good basis to start controlling migration with.

I'm sure she has some ideas and reasons for it. I find it difficult to accept students carrying on staying in the UK is one of them. If someone is trained and educated having paid for that expensive privilege in the UK, then surely we want them to stay??? :|

 

[forker]

Well you and the Brexit camp do have to back up your arguments with GDP data otherwise its just a bunch of empty words.

FACT! EU GDP in every country but Greece grew in 2015 year!
FACT! EU largest GDP block in the World!
FACT! EU GDP still growing but not as fast as BRICS.
FACT! That does not mean it is in decline.


With respect to point system entry I agree with you and always had the Australian model as a good basis to start controlling migration with.

I'm sure she has some ideas and reasons for it. I find it difficult to accept students carrying on staying in the UK is one of them. If someone is trained and educated having paid for that expensive privilege in the UK, then surely we want them to stay??? :|

It's 2016 you mullet not 2015. By your logic I could say Cameron is still pm.

 

[Atilla]

It's 2016 you mullet not 2015. By your logic I could say Cameron is still pm.

It's 2016??? and your point is what???? EU is in decline since 2015???

Here mull these numbers over :cheesy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth


Rank Country Real 2015 GDP growth rate (%) [2]

2 United Kingdom Gibraltar 6.00 (2008 est.)[4]
3 Luxembourg 4.40
4 Czech Republic 3.90
5 Poland 3.50
6 Malta 3.40
6 Romania 3.40
8 Slovakia 3.20
9 Spain 3.10
10 Hungary 3.00
1 Republic of Ireland 26.3 [3]
11 France New Caledonia 2.80(2014 est.)[5]
11 Sweden 2.80
13 United Kingdom 2.50
14 France French Polynesia 2.40(2012 est.)[7]
14 Netherlands Aruba 2.40(2005 est.)[6]
16 Slovenia 2.30
17 Latvia 2.20
18 Estonia 2.00
- European Union 1.80
19 Netherlands 1.80
19 Lithuania 1.80
21 Bulgaria 1.70
22 Denmark 1.60
22 Portugal 1.60
27 Croatia 1.60
24 Germany 1.50
25 Belgium 1.30
26 France 1.20
27 Austria 0.80
27 Italy 0.80
30 Cyprus 0.50
31 Finland 0.40
32 Greece -0.20


GDP growing in every EU country but Greece for 2015.

 

[forker]

Here is an updated list for you and if you look at the previous data points you will see who is shrinking period over period


Albania1.20Mar/16
Austria0.30Jun/16
Belgium0.50Jun/16
Bosnia and Herzegovina1.30Mar/16
Bulgaria0.70Jun/16
Croatia0.50Jun/16
Cyprus0.70Jun/16
Czech Republic0.90Jun/16
Denmark0.50Jun/16
Estonia0.50Jun/16
Euro Area0.30Jun/16
European Union0.40Jun/16
Finland0.00Jun/16
France0.00Jun/16
Germany0.40Jun/16
Greece0.20Jun/16
Hungary1.00Jun/16
Iceland2.10Jun/16
Ireland-2.10Mar/16
Italy0.00Jun/16
Latvia0.60Jun/16
Lithuania0.20Jun/16
Luxembourg0.70Mar/16
Macedonia3.90Mar/14
Malta0.30Mar/16
Moldova1.70Mar/16
Netherlands0.60Jun/16
Norway0.00Jun/16
Poland0.90Jun/16
Portugal0.30Jun/16
Romania1.50Jun/16
Russia-0.57Sep/15
Serbia0.00Jun/16
Slovakia0.90Jun/16
Slovenia0.50Jun/16
Spain0.80Jun/16
Sweden0.30Jun/16
Switzerland0.60Jun/16
Turkey0.30Jun/16
Ukraine0.60Jun/16
United Kingdom0.60Jun/16

 

[forker]

Stop wasting my time with your rubbish historical data that has zero relevance to the status quo today.

 

[counter_violent]

It's 2016??? and your point is what???? EU is in decline since 2015???

Here mull these numbers over :cheesy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth


Rank Country Real 2015 GDP growth rate (%) [2]

2 United Kingdom Gibraltar 6.00 (2008 est.)[4]
3 Luxembourg 4.40
4 Czech Republic 3.90
5 Poland 3.50
6 Malta 3.40
6 Romania 3.40
8 Slovakia 3.20
9 Spain 3.10
10 Hungary 3.00
1 Republic of Ireland 26.3 [3]
11 France New Caledonia 2.80(2014 est.)[5]
11 Sweden 2.80
13 United Kingdom 2.50
14 France French Polynesia 2.40(2012 est.)[7]
14 Netherlands Aruba 2.40(2005 est.)[6]
16 Slovenia 2.30
17 Latvia 2.20
18 Estonia 2.00
- European Union 1.80
19 Netherlands 1.80
19 Lithuania 1.80
21 Bulgaria 1.70
22 Denmark 1.60
22 Portugal 1.60
27 Croatia 1.60
24 Germany 1.50
25 Belgium 1.30
26 France 1.20
27 Austria 0.80
27 Italy 0.80
30 Cyprus 0.50
31 Finland 0.40
32 Greece -0.20


GDP growing in every EU country but Greece for 2015.

Oh dear, I think you just shot yourself in the foot

That's an interesting list. I've highlighted the countries that matter economically.

What's also very clear is, that being part of this failing states of Europe, UK is being held back. There is no doubt about it, being outside the EU will see the UK shoot for the stars.

 

[counter_violent]

I thought that I would pass this over, from Bloomberg. There have been one or two Spain knockers amongst the the Brexiters. I have to admit that I am relieved to read that so long without a government may be harming the country, but it appears to be ticking along quite nicely.




Spain's Political Mess Is a Blessing, Not a Curse



Sep 9, 2016 11:59 AM EDT

By
Leonid Bershidsky

Spain faces the choice between a third general election in a year or a government based on some painful, improbable compromises. At first glance, this looks like a case study on the dysfunction of European parliamentary democracy. It is, however, nothing of the kind.

I've heard many Americans say that whoever wins the presidential election, the country will more or less run itself. That's not just true in the U.S.: No country with strong local authorities and a professional bureaucracy needs to be actively governed all the time. Spain's experience since the December 2015 election -- which left it with a caretaker government until another inconclusive election this June -- proves it.

The country's annualized economic growth rate in the last four full quarters has been comfortably above 3 percent, beating not just France and Germany but also some faster-growing eastern European countries -- all with duly elected, properly functioning governments.

No Government? No Problem

Other economic indicators have been steadily improving. Unemployment has fallen every month since October 2015, dropping to 19.6 percent in July from 21.2 percent. This summer, there has been a bigger-than-usual tourism boom due to terrorist attacks in France and Turkey and Greece's continued economic malaise, but industrial production has been growing, too, as have retail sales, so locals have done no less to boost the economy than tourists.

Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy gets a lot of criticism for his embrace of austerity, but the labor reforms he pushed through while his government enjoyed a parliamentary majority -- businesses are now able to make their own bargaining agreements with unions, and it's become cheaper to fire workers -- are still having an effect. Spain is at a point where no radical change is required for things to go in the right direction.




It might have helped the economy to expand even faster if Spain could increase government spending. All it could do for 2016 was lock in 2015 spending levels, and that's likely to happen for next year as well: There is no time to work out a different budget and push it through a fractious parliament. On the other hand, a leftist election victory could have destabilized government finances, so living with the same budget year after year is not the worst scenario.

This, of course, cannot go on forever. A country does eventually need a legitimate government, not a stand-in one. But Spanish voters and politicians aren't exactly wasting time replaying elections and coalition negotiations.

In the June election, Rajoy's People's Party improved on its December result, though it fell well short of a majority. This shows voters are beginning to appreciate the economic improvement, which they were of a mind to disregard late last year because of pent-up anger over austerity and high-level corruption in the People's Party.

At the same time, the disruptor Podemos party barely improved its showing despite its coalition with another leftist party, failing to beat the traditional Socialists. Together, the Unidos Podemos alliance created by Podemos and other left-wing groups lost more than a million votes. Despite corruption charges and continuing allegations, the centrist parties that have run Spain for decades have retained their leading positions, and that's an important result.

If the "run, fail to agree, set up another election" pattern repeated itself once or twice, Rajoy's party would likely be able to build a coalition with the center-right upstart Ciudadanos party. That has prompted some feverish activity on the left flank, but leftist parties don't have a majority even if they make a deal. Both the right-wing and left-wing contenders are forced to talk to smaller regional parties, including Basque and Catalan secessionists, in hopes of finding a compromise -- something that used to be anathema to the mainstream political forces.

This is a much better setup than Spain faced late last year, when the country appeared to be irreconcilably split. It has taken close to a year and no deals have been reached, but politicians now know every nuance of their rivals' positions, and they've worked out their priorities. Every political force has had a chance to make itself heard and to try on every possible alliance -- and every voter has someone to root for. That's a messy process, but it's a more or less public one, and it's ultimately constructive.

If Spain had a first-past-the-post system, Rajoy would have won and formed a government back in December. Yet his legitimacy would have been questionable, many Spaniards would feel unrepresented, and a populist force like Podemos could keep increasing its popularity and win the next election. In a way, these are the mechanics that have put Donald Trump within reach of the U.S. presidency.

The European system puts up a better defense against such an eventuality simply by giving representative democracy a better chance. That can slow things down sometimes, but, as Spain's economic performance shows, that's not a particularly high price to pay for an eventual result that most people will understand and recognize.

The only lesson you should take from this "lack of government" is that too much of it is a very bad thing.
If Spain is doing well in a government vaccuum, then perhaps Spain should have even less of it.
A good start would be leaving the EU

 

[counter_violent]

Is this a cut and paste considering there are no paragraphs in that blurb?

Anyhow the article is confused and inaccurate.

1. To put in context yes the EU does need closer integration. It needs harmonisation of fiscal policy for sure as politicians can't be trusted to do the right thing.

2. Article speaks of EU and then looks into individual countries in the block. If the article wishes to compare apples with apples and pears with pears, it should look at how well states are doing in the US and when comparing to UK how well different counties are doing between North and South divide.

Here are the EU countries growth rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth

ALL EU countries GDP is growing except for Greece but they too will be turning a corner very soon.

3. Article states the same misleading verbal rubbish about EU in decline. Nothing of the sort. Simply that BRIC countries have grown so much faster.

Do you and CV not understand how averages and statistics work? Does anybody in the Brexit camp understand how averages work or is this simply an intentional lie if it is repeated enough times, numpties will accept it as fact?

Knowing how Inquisitor doesn't like being talked down to along with all the other numpties they'll simply accept it as Elitist getting it wrong before, they'll get this one wrong too.

4. When looking at all the countries and how well they have done ideally one should look at the time lines and what has been achieved. All countries go through the economic cycle. UK was the sick man of Europe before it joined the EU and now it is 5th in the world by GDP. That's after 40+ years of membership.

I know some of you think this was all down to Maggie, but you know there are also still many people out there who believe in a benevolent God. I'm sure they've had their time and good purpose but both take the biscuit trying to keep the faith going don't they???

5. I have no idea why you grumble about negative bond yields. Market dictates the cost of holding money. Unless you write about capital flow restrictions then you are free along with everyone else to invest in US bonds.

6. That write up is so off the charts it even has a dig at forecasted rates??? Smacks of desperation does it not?

ECB Mario's statement keeps talking of support but not doing anything. So it's simply nurturing the market on the slow L curve recovery.

EU recovery is working and the data proves it.

The EU is in decline and has been since 1980. A considerable period of time.
Do you not understand averages?

EU share of world GDP. Down from 30% in 1975 to 16.5% now.
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shrunk-percentage-world-economy/

This is not to say that the EU hasn't grown. It has, but at a snails pace compared to the rest.

This performance, whichever way you look at it, is dire.

 

[Splitlink]

The only lesson you should take from this "lack of government" is that too much of it is a very bad thing.
If Spain is doing well in a government vaccuum, then perhaps Spain should have even less of it.
A good start would be leaving the EU

The UK would have to convince us, first. It han't, even, signd Art 50, yet.

There is a problem with lack of government. It is not possible to pass laws.

 

[counter_violent]

The UK would have to convince us, first. It han't, even, signd Art 50, yet.

That is rather to the EU's benefit and the UK's detriment. When our membership contributions cease, other member countries will have to pick up the slack !

There is a problem with lack of government. It is not possible to pass laws.

The irony here is, laws and rules/ regulations are exactly the kind of things that inhibit people from doing things. The more red tape you have, the less inclined anyone is to do anything. That is how all countries in the western world got into this mess.

 

[Atilla]

Brexiters need to qualify what is meant by EU is in decline!

EU GDP has grown.

EU share global GDP share is down yes but then same can be said for all advanced countries - not just the EU. That includes the US and Japan.

Question to ask is - Has membership of the EU impeded UK GDP growth and international trade?

or

Has membership of the EU helped UK GDP growth and international trade?


This link had GDP ranking of countries since 1970-5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_growth_1980–2010


The Brexit camp playing fiddly diddly with stats is not the way to go!

If EU as a trading block and political union is in decline, then are UK interests greater inside or outside the union (what ever is meant by decline)? As a trading block GDP is growing. As a political union it is becoming more integrated yes as it has to harmonise fiscal policy rules to remove politicians ability to screw up the economy.


Without some indication how UK position will improve it would not be prudent to leave imo.

 

[Atilla]

U.K. Told It Has Zero Chance of Having, Eating Brexit Cake



Has a good map of various zones and lay of the land with the many countries.

I think we are heading out with a FTA type agreement based on Tory mutterings thus far.

Liberals Brighton conference is very interesting though. Tim Farron has clearly differentiated him self from Labour and the Tories. I feel in the next elections they will do well.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tim-farron...t-leaders-full-speech-2016-conference-1582374

 

[Atilla]

Until now I haven't been paying much attention to EU banks failing.

However, just saw this clip on Bob Diamond, having effed up Barclays buying useless junk and expanding investment side of the business during a downturn, he has invested in African banks using creation Atlas which has it self ccrashed 70%, is now looking at buying European banks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...says-he-s-looking-to-invest-in-european-banks

Well if Bob is an indicator what ever he does fails. Can't see Europe failing into the BD BS syndicate but who knows???


One to watch.


PS. Barclays still trying to cut costs and implement redundancies by the way. Trying to undo Bob's pooh after giving him £200m + to sod off to save the bank.

 

[counter_violent]

U.K. Told It Has Zero Chance of Having, Eating Brexit Cake



Has a good map of various zones and lay of the land with the many countries.

I think we are heading out with a FTA type agreement based on Tory mutterings thus far.

Liberals Brighton conference is very interesting though. Tim Farron has clearly differentiated him self from Labour and the Tories. I feel in the next elections they will do well.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tim-farron...t-leaders-full-speech-2016-conference-1582374

Vince Cable has already dismissed Farron as an idiot for going against the will of the people.