Brexit and the Consequences

. . . Some people will ultimately end up losing their jobs sooner or later. :whistling
Aye, I expect you're right about that Atilla. When I put my X in the leave box, I was very much aware it was against my own personal best interests. I'm off on a booze cruise to France next month - not sure how many more of those there will be after this trip. That, the cheap flights on holidays to Spain and Italy, along with the EU health certificate thingy (important to someone like me with an iffy ticker) - could all be in jeopardy. I'm sure you can add to the list. However, as I and countless others said at the time of the referendum, sometimes one has to think of the greater good, the next generation, and accept a little short term pain as a price one has to pay for long term gain. So far, I've no regrets. I'm as confident as I was when I voted - if not more so - that I made the right decision and for the right reasons.

All of which means, I'm afraid, that links like the ones above are just water off a duck's back to me. It's not for me to say, but I suspect I speak for other Brexiteers when I say that. The UK will do just fine in the medium to long term. After all, we're about to join the biggest club in the world: countries that aren't in the EU, that plough their own furrow and, for the most part, fair rather better than those who are governed by the unelected, irremovable and unaccountable EU political elite.
Tim.
 
Aye, I expect you're right about that Atilla. When I put my X in the leave box, I was very much aware it was against my own personal best interests. I'm off on a booze cruise to France next month - not sure how many more of those there will be after this trip. That, the cheap flights on holidays to Spain and Italy, along with the EU health certificate thingy (important to someone like me with an iffy ticker) - could all be in jeopardy. I'm sure you can add to the list. However, as I and countless others said at the time of the referendum, sometimes one has to think of the greater good, the next generation, and accept a little short term pain as a price one has to pay for long term gain. So far, I've no regrets. I'm as confident as I was when I voted - if not more so - that I made the right decision and for the right reasons.

All of which means, I'm afraid, that links like the ones above are just water off a duck's back to me. It's not for me to say, but I suspect I speak for other Brexiteers when I say that. The UK will do just fine in the medium to long term. After all, we're about to join the biggest club in the world: countries that aren't in the EU, that plough their own furrow and, for the most part, fair rather better than those who are governed by the unelected, irremovable and unaccountable EU political elite.
Tim.

Well, Tim, I hope your dodgy ticker keeps you going for at least twenty years and more so that you can witness what a dreadful mistake you made. Unfortunately I doubt I'll be there with you :LOL:
 
Aye, I expect you're right about that Atilla. When I put my X in the leave box, I was very much aware it was against my own personal best interests. I'm off on a booze cruise to France next month - not sure how many more of those there will be after this trip. That, the cheap flights on holidays to Spain and Italy, along with the EU health certificate thingy (important to someone like me with an iffy ticker) - could all be in jeopardy. I'm sure you can add to the list. However, as I and countless others said at the time of the referendum, sometimes one has to think of the greater good, the next generation, and accept a little short term pain as a price one has to pay for long term gain. So far, I've no regrets. I'm as confident as I was when I voted - if not more so - that I made the right decision and for the right reasons.

All of which means, I'm afraid, that links like the ones above are just water off a duck's back to me. It's not for me to say, but I suspect I speak for other Brexiteers when I say that. The UK will do just fine in the medium to long term. After all, we're about to join the biggest club in the world: countries that aren't in the EU, that plough their own furrow and, for the most part, fair rather better than those who are governed by the unelected, irremovable and unaccountable EU political elite.
Tim.

Hope you are right.

So who can I deselect or unelect that's responsible for South West trains franchise, pi55 poor service, whilst the CEO gets top bonus? Who on earth thought this was a good competitive idea that'll keep prices down and service levels high?

Why can't I catch a competitors train into London?

This election business is it really that important. Can I elect a Dutchman to come and be responsible for running our trains because if their trains are more than 2mins late, they have to investigate the cause!


How long will the fishermen have to wait to get their fishing quotas changed?
When will the load on the NHS be eased as apparently, our elected masters have drawn up a 7 day service, without increasing resource input that is squeaking under 5 day-week?


My confidence in your sanity is slipping away every day dear Tim. Altruism you say? Were you a kamikaze pilot in your past life? ;)
 
I had to do a double read on this article as I had trouble comprehending what they were saying???

Very punchy ending. FYI - it's here... :eek:


My feeling is that the country would be better served by an even-handed weighing of these possibilities than by affirming the stupidity of Brexit supporters and contemplating, with such steady satisfaction, the horror that lies ahead.


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-09-08/britain-s-experts-are-invested-in-disaster


Please send in your letters of complaint to BBG. :cheesy:

T2W may choose to slap a warning to BBG too for insulting all Brexit supporters. :whistling
 
This bloke should get a gong, for talking common sense.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315860


Coming from the man who currently conducts 80% of his trade with countries outside of the EU.

As for averting the downturn??? All very premature considering nothing has been invoked or discussed in terms of red lines.

Civil Service stating there is no resources to conduct Brexit and at current resources likely to take 20 years.

There is a storm brewing and you shouldn't be too hasty to count your chickens just yet!
 
Coming from the man who currently conducts 80% of his trade with countries outside of the EU.

As for averting the downturn??? All very premature considering nothing has been invoked or discussed in terms of red lines.

Civil Service stating there is no resources to conduct Brexit and at current resources likely to take 20 years.

There is a storm brewing and you shouldn't be too hasty to count your chickens just yet!

He is quite adamant that we don't need a deal with the EU. He is right of course, we don't. So all this talk of red lines is just smokescreen.
 

You just don't get it do you. It is exactly this type of condescending "Rich Elitist" attitude that those who voted to leave the EU were voting against. Until you change your Guardian reading liberal elitist approach with your "we know better than you" mentality and accept that you are not always right and that we are not thick, stupid or were somehow misled when we voted the way we did, then you will get absolutely nowhere in attempting to change our views regardless of what selectively chosen data you may use to back your case.
 
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You just don't get it do you. It is exactly this type of condescending "Rich Elitist" attitude that those who voted to leave the EU were voting against. Until you change your Guardian reading liberal elitist approach with your "we know better than you" mentality and accept that you are not always right and that we are not thick, stupid or were somehow misled when we voted the way we did, then you will get absolutely nowhere in attempting to change our views regardless of what selectively chosen data you may use to back your case.

I'm none of those things you say and on the contrary, a poor working class peasant. A cyclist and a tree hugger. Drive an old banger bought second hand long time ago when I have to.

You do need a good stiff drink though. Have one on me. :cheers:
 
In 2005 Alan sugar said the following Xmas the ipod would be dead. He also said there is no such thing as poverty in 21st century Britain. To end out my comment on Alan regarding the eu I leave you with this nugget.

No body is perfect. Somethings we get right and some wrong re:ipod.

Don't see anything wrong in fighting within the system to change it for the better.

Systems change from within is easier than from the outside. :idea:
 
No body is perfect. Somethings we get right and some wrong re:ipod.

Don't see anything wrong in fighting within the system to change it for the better.

Systems change from within is easier than from the outside. :idea:

Sugar works for Trump. Small timer. :LOL:

 
No body is perfect. Somethings we get right and some wrong re:ipod.

Don't see anything wrong in fighting within the system to change it for the better.

Systems change from within is easier than from the outside. :idea:
The only change the eu is doing is tighter integration to gain more leverage over trade to the rest of the world. Now that's all good on the surface but when you dig a little deeper you find that it is failing miserably and unable to pull up its socks. Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, makeup for 29 percent of the euro area gdp (currently at 0.3 percent). Of these four only Germany's gdp is growing. France is unchanged, Italy and Spain have both shrunk. In the rest of the group there are 4 that are unchanged and 9 that are shrinking. All this while the fart crew in Brussels are looking at QE extension that's been running since early 2015. The currency has a zero interest rate. The unemployment rate is sitting at 10 percent. The debt is sitting at just over 90 percent of gdp. Do you know what the European financial stability facility is? It's a special type of bond that it sells and the proceeds are used to lend to member states. Who wants to buy a bond with negative yield? I certainly don't and I am sure I am not alone in that boat. Heck the USA offer a 10 year at 1.6 percent. The ecb's own projection for real gdp is below 0.5 percent going forward into 2018. For a group of countries that's meant to be strong together it sure is a 5hit5how. The USA took the hardest hit in 2009 and its population is marginally smaller than the euro area and its managing a gdp of 1.2 percent. Fighting within the system is clearly a working strategy for them isn't it?
 
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I thought that I would pass this over, from Bloomberg. There have been one or two Spain knockers amongst the the Brexiters. I have to admit that I am relieved to read that so long without a government may be harming the country, but it appears to be ticking along quite nicely.




Spain's Political Mess Is a Blessing, Not a Curse



Sep 9, 2016 11:59 AM EDT

By
Leonid Bershidsky

Spain faces the choice between a third general election in a year or a government based on some painful, improbable compromises. At first glance, this looks like a case study on the dysfunction of European parliamentary democracy. It is, however, nothing of the kind.

I've heard many Americans say that whoever wins the presidential election, the country will more or less run itself. That's not just true in the U.S.: No country with strong local authorities and a professional bureaucracy needs to be actively governed all the time. Spain's experience since the December 2015 election -- which left it with a caretaker government until another inconclusive election this June -- proves it.

The country's annualized economic growth rate in the last four full quarters has been comfortably above 3 percent, beating not just France and Germany but also some faster-growing eastern European countries -- all with duly elected, properly functioning governments.

No Government? No Problem

Other economic indicators have been steadily improving. Unemployment has fallen every month since October 2015, dropping to 19.6 percent in July from 21.2 percent. This summer, there has been a bigger-than-usual tourism boom due to terrorist attacks in France and Turkey and Greece's continued economic malaise, but industrial production has been growing, too, as have retail sales, so locals have done no less to boost the economy than tourists.

Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy gets a lot of criticism for his embrace of austerity, but the labor reforms he pushed through while his government enjoyed a parliamentary majority -- businesses are now able to make their own bargaining agreements with unions, and it's become cheaper to fire workers -- are still having an effect. Spain is at a point where no radical change is required for things to go in the right direction.




It might have helped the economy to expand even faster if Spain could increase government spending. All it could do for 2016 was lock in 2015 spending levels, and that's likely to happen for next year as well: There is no time to work out a different budget and push it through a fractious parliament. On the other hand, a leftist election victory could have destabilized government finances, so living with the same budget year after year is not the worst scenario.

This, of course, cannot go on forever. A country does eventually need a legitimate government, not a stand-in one. But Spanish voters and politicians aren't exactly wasting time replaying elections and coalition negotiations.

In the June election, Rajoy's People's Party improved on its December result, though it fell well short of a majority. This shows voters are beginning to appreciate the economic improvement, which they were of a mind to disregard late last year because of pent-up anger over austerity and high-level corruption in the People's Party.

At the same time, the disruptor Podemos party barely improved its showing despite its coalition with another leftist party, failing to beat the traditional Socialists. Together, the Unidos Podemos alliance created by Podemos and other left-wing groups lost more than a million votes. Despite corruption charges and continuing allegations, the centrist parties that have run Spain for decades have retained their leading positions, and that's an important result.

If the "run, fail to agree, set up another election" pattern repeated itself once or twice, Rajoy's party would likely be able to build a coalition with the center-right upstart Ciudadanos party. That has prompted some feverish activity on the left flank, but leftist parties don't have a majority even if they make a deal. Both the right-wing and left-wing contenders are forced to talk to smaller regional parties, including Basque and Catalan secessionists, in hopes of finding a compromise -- something that used to be anathema to the mainstream political forces.

This is a much better setup than Spain faced late last year, when the country appeared to be irreconcilably split. It has taken close to a year and no deals have been reached, but politicians now know every nuance of their rivals' positions, and they've worked out their priorities. Every political force has had a chance to make itself heard and to try on every possible alliance -- and every voter has someone to root for. That's a messy process, but it's a more or less public one, and it's ultimately constructive.

If Spain had a first-past-the-post system, Rajoy would have won and formed a government back in December. Yet his legitimacy would have been questionable, many Spaniards would feel unrepresented, and a populist force like Podemos could keep increasing its popularity and win the next election. In a way, these are the mechanics that have put Donald Trump within reach of the U.S. presidency.

The European system puts up a better defense against such an eventuality simply by giving representative democracy a better chance. That can slow things down sometimes, but, as Spain's economic performance shows, that's not a particularly high price to pay for an eventual result that most people will understand and recognize.
 
The only change the eu is doing is tighter integration to gain more leverage over trade to the rest of the world. Now that's all good on the surface but when you dig a little deeper you find that it is failing miserably and unable to pull up its socks. Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, makeup for 29 percent of the euro area gdp (currently at 0.3 percent). Of these four only Germany's gdp is growing. France is unchanged, Italy and Spain have both shrunk. In the rest of the group there are 4 that are unchanged and 9 that are shrinking. All this while the fart crew in Brussels are looking at QE extension that's been running since early 2015. The currency has a zero interest rate. The unemployment rate is sitting at 10 percent. The debt is sitting at just over 90 percent of gdp. Do you know what the European financial stability facility is? It's a special type of bond that it sells and the proceeds are used to lend to member states. Who wants to buy a bond with negative yield? I certainly don't and I am sure I am not alone in that boat. Heck the USA offer a 10 year at 1.6 percent. The ecb's own projection for real gdp is below 0.5 percent going forward into 2018. For a group of countries that's meant to be strong together it sure is a 5hit5how. The USA took the hardest hit in 2009 and its population is marginally smaller than the euro area and its managing a gdp of 1.2 percent. Fighting within the system is clearly a working strategy for them isn't it?

Is this a cut and paste considering there are no paragraphs in that blurb? :rolleyes:

Anyhow the article is confused and inaccurate.

1. To put in context yes the EU does need closer integration. It needs harmonisation of fiscal policy for sure as politicians can't be trusted to do the right thing.

2. Article speaks of EU and then looks into individual countries in the block. If the article wishes to compare apples with apples and pears with pears, it should look at how well states are doing in the US and when comparing to UK how well different counties are doing between North and South divide.

Here are the EU countries growth rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_member_states_by_GDP_growth

ALL EU countries GDP is growing except for Greece but they too will be turning a corner very soon.

3. Article states the same misleading verbal rubbish about EU in decline. Nothing of the sort. Simply that BRIC countries have grown so much faster.

Do you and CV not understand how averages and statistics work? Does anybody in the Brexit camp understand how averages work or is this simply an intentional lie if it is repeated enough times, numpties will accept it as fact?

Knowing how Inquisitor doesn't like being talked down to along with all the other numpties they'll simply accept it as Elitist getting it wrong before, they'll get this one wrong too. ;)

4. When looking at all the countries and how well they have done ideally one should look at the time lines and what has been achieved. All countries go through the economic cycle. UK was the sick man of Europe before it joined the EU and now it is 5th in the world by GDP. That's after 40+ years of membership.

I know some of you think this was all down to Maggie, but you know there are also still many people out there who believe in a benevolent God. I'm sure they've had their time and good purpose but both take the biscuit trying to keep the faith going don't they???

5. I have no idea why you grumble about negative bond yields. Market dictates the cost of holding money. Unless you write about capital flow restrictions then you are free along with everyone else to invest in US bonds.

6. That write up is so off the charts it even has a dig at forecasted rates??? :LOL: Smacks of desperation does it not?

ECB Mario's statement keeps talking of support but not doing anything. So it's simply nurturing the market on the slow L curve recovery.

EU recovery is working and the data proves it.
 
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