U bend, I will have a look, I will also post a little later why I have changed my tune, it is quite straight forward work and I think you will agree with me that is is a little scary...anyway here is the path for the day, I am expecting a slightly positve open and then a trending downday....
Bigbusiness
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sorry about that.....
here is some food for thought....I will not attach the charts as there are 6 of them:
I mentioned this in my previous email. I am coming around to the idea that the month of August will mark a major turn in the market.
For those of you who have lived on the moon for the last 100 years, many traders use a number sequence called Fibonacci numbers. Adding the preceding number with the current number to get the next number derives these numbers. The numbers are 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89 etc.
Consider this:
In 2002 the market topped on the 22nd August, which is 1 year ago. The market declined 20% in 50 days, or 1800 Dow points.
In 2001 the market topped again on the 24th August, which is 2 years ago. The market dropped 2400 points in 20 days.
In 2000 the market topped on the 6th September, which is 3 years ago. The market declined 1400 points in 40 days.
In 1998 the market topped in July but had a slight reversal in August. The market topped on the 20th August and dropped 1200 points in little more than a week. This is 5 years ago.
In 1995 the market turned higher on the 24th of August and continued higher for the rest of the year. This is 8 years ago.
In 1990 the market was in a downtrend but in the 15th of august the market made a high before dropping 15% in 8 trading sessions. This is 13 years ago.
In 1982 the market made a huge reversal on the 9th August. The market rallied 30% for the rest of the year. This is 21 years ago.
In 1969 the market simply traded lower until October in a range bound action.
In 1948 the month of August market a major reversal, which only last 15 trading days.
1914 the market was closed due to WW1. This was 89 years ago.
What all this points to in my opinion is the possibility of a major turn based on these cycles. It looks to me as if the latter part of August could mark a turn in the market which could lead to a very shift sell-off in the major stock indices, like we have seen in the bond market over the last 8 weeks.
here is some food for thought....I will not attach the charts as there are 6 of them:
I mentioned this in my previous email. I am coming around to the idea that the month of August will mark a major turn in the market.
For those of you who have lived on the moon for the last 100 years, many traders use a number sequence called Fibonacci numbers. Adding the preceding number with the current number to get the next number derives these numbers. The numbers are 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89 etc.
Consider this:
In 2002 the market topped on the 22nd August, which is 1 year ago. The market declined 20% in 50 days, or 1800 Dow points.
In 2001 the market topped again on the 24th August, which is 2 years ago. The market dropped 2400 points in 20 days.
In 2000 the market topped on the 6th September, which is 3 years ago. The market declined 1400 points in 40 days.
In 1998 the market topped in July but had a slight reversal in August. The market topped on the 20th August and dropped 1200 points in little more than a week. This is 5 years ago.
In 1995 the market turned higher on the 24th of August and continued higher for the rest of the year. This is 8 years ago.
In 1990 the market was in a downtrend but in the 15th of august the market made a high before dropping 15% in 8 trading sessions. This is 13 years ago.
In 1982 the market made a huge reversal on the 9th August. The market rallied 30% for the rest of the year. This is 21 years ago.
In 1969 the market simply traded lower until October in a range bound action.
In 1948 the month of August market a major reversal, which only last 15 trading days.
1914 the market was closed due to WW1. This was 89 years ago.
What all this points to in my opinion is the possibility of a major turn based on these cycles. It looks to me as if the latter part of August could mark a turn in the market which could lead to a very shift sell-off in the major stock indices, like we have seen in the bond market over the last 8 weeks.
Sun,
interesting.Couple of questions tho if you find time.
Considering we've already had 1,2,3,5,8,13etc where does that leave the next no in sequence?
What would the results have looked like if today was 11/08/02 and not 11/08/03? Looks like the nos may have worked last year also.
interesting.Couple of questions tho if you find time.
Considering we've already had 1,2,3,5,8,13etc where does that leave the next no in sequence?
What would the results have looked like if today was 11/08/02 and not 11/08/03? Looks like the nos may have worked last year also.
barjon
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Sun
Isn't your sequence of events using Fib numbers backwards?
Presumably one needs to use them in a forward direction if
they are to be used for forecasting purposes. Crucially Aug 2003
must be the "right" fib number from the major event that set
the starting point - so what and when was that starting point?
good trading
jon
Isn't your sequence of events using Fib numbers backwards?
Presumably one needs to use them in a forward direction if
they are to be used for forecasting purposes. Crucially Aug 2003
must be the "right" fib number from the major event that set
the starting point - so what and when was that starting point?
good trading
jon
982 was a major resistance which has now been broken and should act as major support. I am thinking that my path show a clear trend day and this trend day could very well be trending up all day.....Long at 982.50 with stop currently at 980...
Bigbusiness
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genti,
I tried a bit more than 50p a point today but it will be a while before I get to Sun's £800 a point
I tried letting my profit run but the Dow is so range bound lately that there don't seem to be many big moves. There have been few 200point range days lately and where the Dow often used to continue a trend after 7pm it now seems to get pulled back towards the open price. Hope that it changes soon as I don't like all these moves during a day.
I tried a bit more than 50p a point today but it will be a while before I get to Sun's £800 a point
I tried letting my profit run but the Dow is so range bound lately that there don't seem to be many big moves. There have been few 200point range days lately and where the Dow often used to continue a trend after 7pm it now seems to get pulled back towards the open price. Hope that it changes soon as I don't like all these moves during a day.
Bigbusiness
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