US INDICES FOR WEEK OF 30th
Good morning,
Today is the final day of the quarter and I would be very watchful on any attempts to mark stocks up in the so-called window-dressing. I don’t have today as an up day, but I can’t rule out an attempt to gap the market higher.
There is a big Russell 3000 re-balancing for the close today. If you look at July over the last couple of years you will see that the pattern is usually the same in that it causes a collapse in July, after a sharp 1-2 day rally before the 4th July, when volume dries up before the holiday. I think the same pattern could happen again. We could see a big rally this week, but probably not until we are out of June. It makes no sense whatsoever, so don’t try to rationalise it. Have a look at the last two years. Both of them have seen triple digit rallies in the Dow, which had to be shorted. Patterns repeat, as do the little games Wall Street play.
The SP500 is trading below all 3-day balance points and will not be in bullish mode until it gets back above 980.50. On the other hand if 970 fall, it should mean a quick trip down to 964. The market made a 3-day low on Friday, but there is no geometry to support a low here. At 964 things would look much better for a bounce.
I am just waiting for some data and until I got it I wont be able to suggest the expected path for today. I should have that a little later today.
Tom
Good morning,
Today is the final day of the quarter and I would be very watchful on any attempts to mark stocks up in the so-called window-dressing. I don’t have today as an up day, but I can’t rule out an attempt to gap the market higher.
There is a big Russell 3000 re-balancing for the close today. If you look at July over the last couple of years you will see that the pattern is usually the same in that it causes a collapse in July, after a sharp 1-2 day rally before the 4th July, when volume dries up before the holiday. I think the same pattern could happen again. We could see a big rally this week, but probably not until we are out of June. It makes no sense whatsoever, so don’t try to rationalise it. Have a look at the last two years. Both of them have seen triple digit rallies in the Dow, which had to be shorted. Patterns repeat, as do the little games Wall Street play.
The SP500 is trading below all 3-day balance points and will not be in bullish mode until it gets back above 980.50. On the other hand if 970 fall, it should mean a quick trip down to 964. The market made a 3-day low on Friday, but there is no geometry to support a low here. At 964 things would look much better for a bounce.
I am just waiting for some data and until I got it I wont be able to suggest the expected path for today. I should have that a little later today.
Tom
