OK had a look. So in 2001 the mkt went up on 1/7 but then down 4 of next 5 days. Last year seemed to go up strongly on the 3rd. Not sure I see alot of similiarity between the two - perhaps missing something here.
This year I would agree that there could be some short term support around 9000 on the dow, but generically would expect the mkt to continuue to trend down if this has been a major top (which I for one do believe).
As ever time and the markets will tell........
I remember now, I am probably a little unusual in that I am never in a rush to trade until I am happy with all aspects of it. I paper traded Level II but realised that I needed more knowledge than I had so far attained to be successful and there was also the whole issue of which broker and which Level II platform to use. In addition to this I also had some consultancy work which slowed me down on the trading progress a little. I have more knowledge and experience now and so I am back to paper trading which is getting better but I am still not where I feel I need to be to commit myself with cash. That said I would only be trading 100 shares at a time to start with and with very tight stops so my risk per point move would be only $1 and it would be unlikely that I would risk much more than around 12c per trade ($12) which is not too bad.
In the next 2 weeks I am hoping to be ready but this will all be down to how successful I am, or otherwise, with daily paper trades. I find it very different to the trading of futures and I want to be sure (as far as I can) that I am stacking the odds as much in my favour as possible. I still find that I am learning everyday and I am always reading up and gaining new insights and in that respect I think that it can only be of benefit.
The structure and nature of the US markets and, in particular, the Nasdaq is quite complex in my view. You have all sorts of things that you have to understand from knowing why a move in the futures will cause a move in stock prices, to overall market strength, sector strength, Tier 1 generals and their influence, which indicators lead, The Ax and their games, time of day, economic news, chart patterns etc.
There is a lot to learn and understand and when the market is live you have to have an almost spatial awareness in many cases to know the likely probability of a trade being successful if you enter it. Once in the trade I have found that watching the level II screen makes the most sense to me as you can quickly see if anything is likely to make the trade successful or not.
So I am getting there but I am in no rush to commit my money to find out that I am not ready yet. Others may be much quicker than myself at this but I am a brutal realist with myself and I will know when it is time to trade for real.
yuo know something guys, i have the utmost respect for technicians, it truly is a mathematical art form and THE most valuable tool in a trader's tool box. TA tells yuo what direction the market is likely to head, when to get in the trade and when to get out. If a trader can master those three variables, he's set for life
i only believe in TA in the short to medium term
some of yuo guys are talking about what the market was doing in 2001. IMO what happened in July 2001 will have NO bearing on what is likely to happen in July 2003, the same way the Iraq War affected market of March 2003 will have no relation to the market of March 2004 (assuming we don't have a Gulf 3)
sorry if i'm coming across as a complete tard, i know yuo TA guys are very religious about yuor charts, i mean no offence. I'm always willing to learn new things which is why i take the time to read yuor posts, which i find, for the most part, enjoyable and very informative