August Month Predictions!

[The Baptist]

I have taken a few of the monthly views which I am or planning to trade and one or two short term opportunities, both on stop sell orders, i.e. Both Short.

For the Month

1. Long Sep ‘06 Copper Buy Stop 377.1 currently 354.9 as at 30th July 2006
2. Long Oct ’06 Platinum Buy Stop 1250 currently 1,233.8
3. Long Nikkei Cash Buy stop 15741 (Currently 15,458) - Long termer 3-6 mths
4. Short GBP/Yen Cash 214.47 (Already in this trade from two days ago)
5. Short Oct ’06 Sugar Sell Stop 432.4 currently 436.2


For 1 – 3 days

1. Hang Seng Sell Short Stop on 16,907 bottom of evening Star Target 16,644 Stop 17,027 top of star.
2. Sell Natural Gas Sep ’06 for from 6.94 stop 7.29 target 6.43


I am currently heavily Long Coffee Robusta and hope to remain so on a long term basis. It was interesting to see in the Sunday Times that Softs relative Value to energies and Metals have lagged substantially.

This came after I had done a relative to Gold chart for all my softs recently myself, the only being posted so far are on my coffee trades. In the whole most softs were undervalued to Gold the classic measure of value, when paper (read Dollar) is being considered suspect.

With all the Energies and Metals rebasing in USD terms, it could be possible we have a lot of undervalued Softs. There are however wide variations in the degree of undervaluation. Also my base year for my data was 1979 in most cases. As many will remember Gold was well above the $1000 level around this time, despite this and its subsequent collapse many Softs are still relatively lower, particularly with Gold’s Current bullishness.

For those wondering about a base comparable of Relative value for Gold itself, then a 10yr T-Bill is typically used and yes, Gold is still relatively undervalued to this instrument, which illustrates the degree that American Paper has been sustained to this point.

If any parties are interested in any Relative Value charts for Softs from a long range and short term level please feel free to request a posting of such. I will post Gold to T-Bills. Plus The Nikkei shortly.

I plan to revisit the above trades to post close levels for the last day of August you will have a good idea how I have done, trading wise, come this day.

 

[jimbo57]

just looked at natgas (sep)...last trade at 7.333. (high 7.349) ....you stopped?

 

[The Baptist]

Nope!

just looked at natgas (sep)...last trade at 7.333. (high 7.349) ....you stopped?

The order is a Sell Stop ie. at the take out of the 6.94 level on the September. It has not traded this low yet.

What I have identified is a possible turning Point or a bullish continuation pattern, So I am not in the trade unless weakness brings me in at the required level. I went for the downside rather than the upside for no other reason than The longer term trend has been down and it has had a few consecutive ups, with one window intraday closed and one further below which has not been closed.

Either way I expected a BO in one of the directions, may well be up on early evidence, hence this was more of a short term two bar tactical trade. The first category our holders for me some with limit and stop entries so margin is not held, without the move that is being anticipated.

 

[The Baptist]

just looked at natgas (sep)...last trade at 7.333. (high 7.349) ....you stopped?

Good spot by yourself on Natgas's moves.

It closed at 8.18 on a big upside break day. I was unsure of the direction but sure of a break Out. In hindsight I should have had a buy Stop in as well.

I was guilty of wanting to find some shorts to post and did not place the upside break as a possibility, I do do this occasionally in these situations, but for the benefit of the post felt it might have looked like backing the horse both ways, with people wanting a view on direction it may have seemed a touch ambigous. Pity...next time.