Cocoa bottomed?
I am getting more bullish on cocoa!
Argumentation:
1. 5 wave down into C completes an expanded flat correction.
2. Various positive divergences on daily charts (RSI, MACD, MOM, ROC)
3. Moving average crossovers. I look at George Kleinman's 2 WMA crossing 9 WMA while 30dWMA is up.
4. DaveT's MACD and Stochastics system gave a signal on 19May. Dave, do you agree?
5. Calendar spreads marginally strengthening.
6. Reverse H&S best noticeable on the hourly chart, targetting 1550?
Well, keen to hear your insight?
I am getting more bullish on cocoa!
Argumentation:
1. 5 wave down into C completes an expanded flat correction.
2. Various positive divergences on daily charts (RSI, MACD, MOM, ROC)
3. Moving average crossovers. I look at George Kleinman's 2 WMA crossing 9 WMA while 30dWMA is up.
4. DaveT's MACD and Stochastics system gave a signal on 19May. Dave, do you agree?
5. Calendar spreads marginally strengthening.
6. Reverse H&S best noticeable on the hourly chart, targetting 1550?
Well, keen to hear your insight?
The Baptist
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JonnyT said:
Hi
The set ups I am looking for our breakouts, volatility triangles.
I have attached a sample on cable. From a few months back, they are not that whic I just noted earlier in the thread.
Love to chat /pm if you are open to a joint project.
TB
The Baptist
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Cocoa just made a bullish flag and breakout of last high. The long awaited turn may have come.
Another false break-out in Cocoa
Although day isn't over yet, it seems that funds have been running for the exits. Down to 1338 from Fridays' highs of 1476. That hurts.
I went long at 1412 and stopped out at 1380-84 (still need to get the fill from broker). No pleasant sight.
Similar to KC and SB, there was no improvement in calendar spreads. Doesn't that imply that there are no real buyers? I wonder when those will follow?
The Baptist said:
Although day isn't over yet, it seems that funds have been running for the exits. Down to 1338 from Fridays' highs of 1476. That hurts.
I went long at 1412 and stopped out at 1380-84 (still need to get the fill from broker). No pleasant sight.
Similar to KC and SB, there was no improvement in calendar spreads. Doesn't that imply that there are no real buyers? I wonder when those will follow?
Another attempt to break the bear trend?
Great break-out from lows of last week. I was very lucky covering short on Tuesday, admittedly at the highs of the day. Looks quite clever now (lol).
In summary:
- Bulls wil like breakout of down trend channel, and various pos divergences in indicators but would like to see a break of 1485 highs or at least a close above the 28May @ 1462
- Bears will take heart of no improvement in calendar spreads and would like to see a close below yesterdays' close.
I am still sceptical, like the short as a "gamble" against a stop above 1485. As long as spreads are not coming in I doubt that the commercials will easily let CC run to new highs. Considering the "fund" enthusiastic inexperience (according to sucden it is again fund buying driving this rally), I wouldn't be surprised if this rally will again falter.
For now i stay on sidelines.
Good luck
PS. DaveT, this must be one of your favourite breakouts? It all fell in place on Tuesday. Hope you bot on the Tuesday close?
Great break-out from lows of last week. I was very lucky covering short on Tuesday, admittedly at the highs of the day. Looks quite clever now (lol).
In summary:
- Bulls wil like breakout of down trend channel, and various pos divergences in indicators but would like to see a break of 1485 highs or at least a close above the 28May @ 1462
- Bears will take heart of no improvement in calendar spreads and would like to see a close below yesterdays' close.
I am still sceptical, like the short as a "gamble" against a stop above 1485. As long as spreads are not coming in I doubt that the commercials will easily let CC run to new highs. Considering the "fund" enthusiastic inexperience (according to sucden it is again fund buying driving this rally), I wouldn't be surprised if this rally will again falter.
For now i stay on sidelines.
Good luck
PS. DaveT, this must be one of your favourite breakouts? It all fell in place on Tuesday. Hope you bot on the Tuesday close?
Attachments
oatman said:
OI jumped near/at the lows near 1330, the rally since happened on ood volume but OI dropped. I suspect Funds are still in but Commercials have covered positions. I read that weather concerns in West Africa may also have gone away. Anyway, keep an eye on todays' open. There might be an interesting scalp!
