DEC Cocoa

bgold

Established member
532 5
Cocoa

Cocoa is crashing down towards support at 1535-55, a rising window of 22/23 Sep.
I have reasonable success (read luck) trading CC riding the slide down in May and particpating in August rally. Recently I found it very difficult. Most recent trades were an entry at 1505, stopped out at 1478 (-27pts), then I wavered when CC was building base and went long at 1580 on 23 Sep and took profits at 1618 after the Evening Star of 26 Sep.
Open Interest is still going down!

Todays' trading shows there is considerable chaos in the market. I haven't read any stories.

1. Anybody out there who can shed some light on either the charts and/or fundamentals?
2. Were can one find news on Cocoa and other softs (Coffee is once again rallying!)
3. Any suggestions for on-line commodity brokers with competitive commission structures AND good access? I am currently paying $30 for a return (quite hefty for smaller contracts)

As always your replies are much appreciated.
J
 

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oatman

Senior member
2,879 22
There's a shortage of big players in cocoa now, so it's easy to manipulate. You can get very sharp moves without volume. If you want a broker, try Sucden, there rates were OK when I used them (negotiable).
http://www.sucden.co.uk/Login.shtml
You'll get some coffee,cocoa and sugar reports here as well.
Additionally they are active in the softs.
Good luck
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
I think it's saying stand aside young man and wait for a trend to develop.

I would sell below 1420 and go long above 1720 or 1820 but this really is a volatile beast and is hard to tame!

JonnyT
 

ianshep

Junior member
17 0
J,

The weekly continuation chart shows a massive double top with the pattern low at 1700, giving a downside target of 1000. However, 1700 has already been penetrated upwards once, which weakens the pattern.

1400 is now THE key level. If this goes, then there is only the base support at 1200 to stop the double top target playing out. A break of 1400 will also break the three year up trend line - 'yours'.

Conversely, an upside breakout from the range at 1700-ish and we're back in the bull trend, first target the old highs at 2400.

Like wot JohnnyT says, it's wait and see time for now.

(I don't trade this so I can quite safely theorise from the sidelines!)
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
Ian, Johnny, Oatman,
Thank you for analysis. I see your points of view. Will study charts tonight. thanks J
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Cocoa falling off THE cliff!

Ianshep and JohnnyT, you were both spot on! Cocoa "en route" to south of 1420 or will support at 1467 hold? Certainly some of the momentum indicators as of yet show no signs of a reversal.
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
Bullish engulfing pattern o daily chart and arguably PD on RSI!
Will cocoa find support above the July 1410 lows?
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
Cocoa has thusfar failed to break resistance in 1520-1540 range. Todays' reverse doesn't look very promsing for immediate outlook.

Any views or perspectives on this one?
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
Do gaps get filled?

Just as trendfollowers start seeing short trading opportunities, trouble starts in ivory coast and Cocoa shoots up by 8%!! In one day from bottom to top of triangle!!

Conventional wisdom (but not a fact) is that gaps do get filled. If Ivory coast problems prove to be minor this "mother of gaps$ ($51) is likely to be filled.

Any thoughts?
 

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bgold

Established member
532 5
the chart was march contract. I attched post on a previous thread which unfortunately was named Dec Cocoa. Can't change title.
 

RitaSam

Newbie
4 0
bgold said:
Cocoa is crashing down towards support at 1535-55, a rising window of 22/23 Sep.
I have reasonable success (read luck) trading CC riding the slide down in May and particpating in August rally. Recently I found it very difficult. Most recent trades were an entry at 1505, stopped out at 1478 (-27pts), then I wavered when CC was building base and went long at 1580 on 23 Sep and took profits at 1618 after the Evening Star of 26 Sep.
Open Interest is still going down!

Todays' trading shows there is considerable chaos in the market. I haven't read any stories.

1. Anybody out there who can shed some light on either the charts and/or fundamentals?
2. Were can one find news on Cocoa and other softs (Coffee is once again rallying!)
3. Any suggestions for on-line commodity brokers with competitive commission structures AND good access? I am currently paying $30 for a return (quite hefty for smaller contracts)

As always your replies are much appreciated.
J

Keystone llc oft of Chicago is around $15 a turn as is Tradestation.
 
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