August Thread predictions Review!

[The Baptist]

QUOTE=The Baptist]I have taken a few of the monthly views which I am or planning to trade and one or two short term opportunities, both on stop sell orders, i.e. Both Short.

For the Month

1. Long Sep ‘06 Copper Buy Stop 377.1 currently 354.9 as at 30th July 2006
2. Long Oct ’06 Platinum Buy Stop 1250 currently 1,233.8
3. Long Nikkei Cash Buy stop 15741 (Currently 15,458) - Long termer 3-6 mths
4. Short GBP/Yen Cash 214.47 (Already in this trade from two days ago)
5. Short Oct ’06 Sugar Sell Stop 432.4 currently 436.2


I am currently heavily Long Coffee Robusta and hope to remain so on a long term basis. It was interesting to see in the Sunday Times that Softs relative Value to energies and Metals have lagged substantially.

If any parties are interested in any Relative Value charts for Softs from a long range and short term level please feel free to request a posting of such. I will post Gold to T-Bills. Plus The Nikkei shortly.

I plan to revisit the above trades to post close levels for the last day of August you will have a good idea how I have done, trading wise, come this day.[/QUOTE]

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Ok review time! 1st September

For the Month

1. Long Sep ‘06 Copper Buy Stop 377.1 currently 354.9 as at 30th July 2006

never touched off as metals failed to break out (yet) currently 349 as of 1st September - No trade - grade C+ good defence by not trading at lower levels buy stop remains as pattern still holds

2. Long Oct ’06 Platinum Buy Stop 1250 currently 1,233.8

Trade entered, but becalmed metals saw no big break out for now yet, though silver has turned AND Gold has stopped falling, current platinum level 1252 and still looking possible. - grade C took the trade to early , Gold effect clamped down precious metals moves for now , though, silver , palladium and plartinum now chomping at the bit with copper. reset entry points for future moves

3. Long Nikkei Cash Buy stop 15741 (Currently 15,458) - Long termer 3-6 mths

Better got long for £20 at 15741 now already 16194 - grade B+ Trade long termer with more to come

4. Short GBP/Yen Cash 214.47 (Already in this trade from two days ago) -

grade E- this trade was put up here because of a seasonal posting on these boards on the strength of the Yen not for any charting reason. It was a failure, the uk announced surprise rates increase and JPN release regressive policitcal and economic news. Effort to reverse on this trade proved fruitfull, thankfully played small this seasonalitystill long now

5. Short Oct ’06 Sugar Sell Stop $432.4 currently 436.2 - grade B+ entreed trade on stop level highly stable and orderly decline that dropped pennies into the account everyday, position was held with a steel will,and remains open for now at current level of $369

6. But my A++ trade was Sep Rob Coffee which I had been long from 1175 for £300, This amazing run finished at 1816 on the 31st August. Posted the Hunt Volatility Flag chart for this beauty. Thank you Coffee, you have placed turkey on the table for xmas.

Any apetitie for more predictions for the month ahead?

 

[matrader]

hi
good to see you followed up the report - interesting read
are you going to continue with your reports?
Im new to all this so apologies if you have been posting similar reports for ages!
are the above full blown futures trades or spread bets?

Keep up the good work & happy hunting

Matt

 

[The Baptist]

Report

hi
good to see you followed up the report - interesting read
are you going to continue with your reports?
Im new to all this so apologies if you have been posting similar reports for ages!
are the above full blown futures trades or spread bets?

Keep up the good work & happy hunting

Matt

Hi Matt,

Some went well. I am generally SB'ing.

I take a long term perspective so some of my views will not have changed much, although I will post a September again.

If interested I'll mark new and existing up with their new levels so we can review again.

I am very bullish on Rob Coffee and remain so. Close yesterday 1573 on the Nov 06.

I will provide details on the rest possibly this evening.

 

[The Baptist]

September Positions

Hi,

For September some our carry overs from August.

Trades That I have held over from August have the levels taken as at the 1st.


1. Long Nikkei 16018 on the 1st - still a Long termer 3-6 mths

One or two positions I picked up during last month mid month, one included the DAX which has a similar chart to the Nikkei. I have posted it and consider it good for the month ahead.

2. Dax Buy Stop 5823 triggered during August. 1st September level 5882.50 still some to go. for those looking at current levels 5896.00

Completely New trades are:

1. Long Cash Gold Buy Stop activated today at $628. and again at $632.9; further buy stops at the 657 level.

I will post others tomorrow after my daily data scans are in, excuse the interuption.

 

[matrader]

sorry for delay in reply - but i lost the message board!
Anyway - thanks for your response & I look forward to keeping in touch with your trades / progress.
Which SB firm do you use?
Ive looked at a couple IG & Tradeindex - but neither do a vast no of US markets(commodity)which will restrict my trades.

 

[The Baptist]

Further Dax

sorry for delay in reply - but i lost the message board!
Anyway - thanks for your response & I look forward to keeping in touch with your trades / progress.
Which SB firm do you use?
Ive looked at a couple IG & Tradeindex - but neither do a vast no of US markets(commodity)which will restrict my trades.

I have just added further to The Dax trade at 5811 earlier today.

I also reinstated a long trade on the Russell 2000 (at 706.8 US Index Small Cap)

I have added to The Nikkei trade 15785.

I believe there was a nervous reaction to 911 today that saw a projected sell off in case of possible negative events and that we will see a relief rally added to long term bullish charts over the next few days.

I am afraid I was stopped into Gold short trades last week Friday and this morning) at the $606 and $601 level, that I have already covered at $586 on a hammer low.

Apologies for not blogging this one in time for anyone to benefit, but I have been away from desk a bit.

 

[The Baptist]

sorry for delay in reply - but i lost the message board!
Anyway - thanks for your response & I look forward to keeping in touch with your trades / progress.
Which SB firm do you use?
Ive looked at a couple IG & Tradeindex - but neither do a vast no of US markets(commodity)which will restrict my trades.

CMC Markets for Spread Betting - good range lowish spreads , but far from perfect!

 

[rav700]

I have just added further to The Dax trade at 5811 earlier today.

I also reinstated a long trade on the Russell 2000 (at 706.8 US Index Small Cap)

I have added to The Nikkei trade 15785.

I believe there was a nervous reaction to 911 today that saw a projected sell off in case of possible negative events and that we will see a relief rally added to long term bullish charts over the next few days.

I am afraid I was stopped into Gold short trades last week Friday and this morning) at the $606 and $601 level, that I have already covered at $586 on a hammer low.

Apologies for not blogging this one in time for anyone to benefit, but I have been away from desk a bit.

You seem to be very bullish mate....even thought we are in the mid sep-october time....

 

[The Baptist]

St Leger's day

You seem to be very bullish mate....even thought we are in the mid sep-october time....

You are right to note it is a turbulent time historically.

It is not every primary index for which I am bullish although, Global equities will bear some correlation. The timeline in question is probably through to the new year.

I have charted these all on a monthly chart (Longish Term) and there are a number of corrective rallys from the May Lows.

If you like seasonalities, 'Sell in May and come back on St Leger's day' might be one for you also to consider. Ideally I would like to check the original view around Feb March time 2007, but without a monthly review, the thread might be a tad dormant.

Hammer lows for May/June/July 06 for the above recommendations, see attached charts. Will try get some broader underlyings posted as they come in.

Happy Trading

 

[The Baptist]

No Bulls around Cattle Mate!

You seem to be very bullish mate....even thought we are in the mid sep-october time....

If you like a short.

I am currently Short Live Cattle, The October is at 91.8

Repeated failures to break the 95 level. Expanding range possible for it to extend below 77 and beyond in relatively short succesion. Tradeable through CMC and IGindex and a few others I am sure.

My name for all intents and Purposes is 'The Baptist', by the way not 'mate'.

Chart attached

The Baptist

 

[The Baptist]

Relief Rally today

As suggested earlier, I believe there was a nice little equity relief rally post 911 from early yesterday on the Nikkei (up from 15785 to 16043 =258 pts) , through the Dax (5811 to 5902=91 pts) and the Russell (706.8 to 723.2=16.5).

Nice start approx 1.6% for the day, hope some of you got some benefit. Happy Trading.

 

[The Baptist]

DAX Short/ Medium termers get out here

Hi

We have just had a Doji evening star at the end of a rising Wedge on the Dax.

This to me is a relative high point signal. For those long from 5823 along with myself, this may be a good bail out point. a run up to 6050 is a good bank point.

I expect most equity primary indexes to be pretty close to rel highs herearound for a bit.

See Chart.

Good Luck

 

[The Baptist]

Mid October Look at primary two Equity tips

I have just added further to The Dax trade at 5811 earlier today.

I also reinstated a long trade on the Russell 2000 (at 706.8 US Index Small Cap)

I have added to The Nikkei trade 15785.

I believe there was a nervous reaction to 911 today that saw a projected sell off in case of possible negative events and that we will see a relief rally added to long term bullish charts over the next few days.

I am afraid I was stopped into Gold short trades last week Friday and this morning) at the $606 and $601 level, that I have already covered at $586 on a hammer low.

Apologies for not blogging this one in time for anyone to benefit, but I have been away from desk a bit.

Gold has seen me be both Long and short more recently and I remain longer term weary of Golds upside prospects, and would expect further falls.

The two Long termer equity trades on the Nikkei and Russell, have fared well even from the predicted 911 relief rally just a month ago:

standing at 16442 from 15785 a month ago - 4,16 % up and 657 pts - £10 SB yielding £6,570
The Russell 2000 at 741.6 vs 706.8 a month ago - up 34.8 pts and 4,9% in a monthb - £200 SB yielding approx £7000.

These trades came in for criticism for being long going into Sept - Oct and were more difficult to call and take than looks now. A sign of a great opportunity, an uncomfortable feeling trade.

Good luck

 

[rav700]

Gold has seen me be both Long and short more recently and I remain longer term weary of Golds upside prospects, and would expect further falls.

The two Long termer equity trades on the Nikkei and Russell, have fared well even from the predicted 911 relief rally just a month ago:

standing at 16442 from 15785 a month ago - 4,16 % up and 657 pts - £10 SB yielding £6,570
The Russell 2000 at 741.6 vs 706.8 a month ago - up 34.8 pts and 4,9% in a monthb - £200 SB yielding approx £7000.

These trades came in for criticism for being long going into Sept - Oct and were more difficult to call and take than looks now. A sign of a great opportunity, an uncomfortable feeling trade.

Good luck

Well Well Mr Baptist,

Congratulation despite the overall bearishness you out shone most of the bears,
No Really excellent trading and I have to respect you foresight,,,,,,if only I would have gone with the trade...................

I currently going to to short the dow again as I think we have done enough for now and I reckon a drop of atleast 300 point is due.........time will tell...

I will be short this if it reaches anywhere near my target which is 11875 again only friday will tell

Best of luck for all you future trades

Rav

 

[rav700]

These trades came in for criticism for being long going into Sept - Oct and were more difficult to call and take than looks now. A sign of a great opportunity, an uncomfortable feeling trade.

Good luck[/QUOTE]

It is not criticism just thoughts

But what do I know

Good Luck

 

[The Baptist]

These trades came in for criticism for being long going into Sept - Oct and were more difficult to call and take than looks now. A sign of a great opportunity, an uncomfortable feeling trade.

Good luck

It is not criticism just thoughts

But what do I know

Good Luck[/QUOTE]

Well Rav you may well know more than most, I certainly don't know it all and don't mean to sound too triumphant, or previously sensitive to your initial comments.

I blog this sort of thing, for the benefit of others being 'devils advocate' and you did that. I also can't hide having to review bad calls and losers too and they are like taxes and death, pretty assured of happening.

Good trading to The Notts Massive