I think next week down again to 3,700.
Anyone have a longer-term, fearless forecast they care to share? I know several of you are really experienced full time traders so would love to hear your thoughts about how low/long you think this bear will go. Here's my thoughts as of right now.
As shown in attached weekly S&P 500 chart, sometime over the next month, I'm looking for a double bottom to form with some kind of bullish reversal weekly candlestick to mark the end to this bear market. On the daily timeframe I'd like to see the second bottom of the double bottom show slowing momentum and divergence with the first bottom from mid-June.
When viewing the monthly candlestick charts, this bear market appears to be just a nice orderly pullback that is about over. I'm expecting resumption of the bull market before end of this summer and another all-time high on the S&P 500 within the next year or so before any extended bear market.
I put 50% of my long-term in semiconductors (SMH) last week in anticipation of market bottom with a fairly wide stop and will add remaining 50% with a tight stop when I see confirmation. My uncle point on first 50% is if downside momentum picks up or we start trading below about 3,500 on S&P.
