S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2015 with PRIZES!

Atilla

Legendary member
19,850 3,104
Well done to Fairval who takes the first gold of 2015. (y)

LexCorp true to form takes silver and yours trully, bronze. :)

Who's a pretty boy then?


.............................................
Fairval
.................LexCorp............................................Atilla
german-shepherds-in-field.jpg



League Table is here...
 
  • Like
Reactions: lexcorp

Pat494

Legendary member
14,621 1,578
2073 pls
 

OddTrader

Junior member
24 0
Hi there guys

This is the 2015 - SPX-500 Weekly Market Close Forecast Competition.

Objective of the game is to predict the weekly-Friday eod closing number for the SPX-500 Cash index.

Rules of WEEKLY competition of S&P 500 cash

1. 1 point for getting direction correct from previous Friday close
2. Having got direction right then:-
a/ 3 points for nearest
b/ 2 points for second nearest
c/ 1 point for third nearest
3. All entries should be in by weekly opening session of US markets

Good luck to you all and prosperous trading.

Prizes to be announced soon...

Q
Originally Posted by OddTrader View Post
BTW, an alternative to derive expectancy is for forecasters to convert/classify/provide "Strong Up, "Up", "Down" and "Strong Down" predictions, rather than numbers. Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics.

Guessing right will get 1 point for "UP or Down" or 2 points for "Strong", depending on her/his projection weekly. Guessing wrong will loss 1 or 2 points, depending on where the ES ends each week.
UQ

Hi OddTrader,

Happy to consider these suggestions but it would be best if they were made in the comp thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/196648-s-p-500-cash-weekly-competition-2015-prizes.html

Basically, this is a competition run and managed by the members so would need to get buy in from the others along with Pat & I.

We can discuss and if acceptable make any changes at the start of Quarter-2 in April.

I do think you should enter a forecast if I may say so, as you have genuine interest. You may win $50 Amazon voucher at the end of every quarter if you get most points points. (y)

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/127036-my-s-p500-prediction-week-8.html

" Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics. "

If my understanding is correct, I think you can easily convert all your old records for the last few years into this new Expectancy format by adding the classification of Strong maybe through an arbitrary number for now say 5 or 10 points. And your existing spreadsheet can be easily modified to handle the calculations (whether the traders entering a number or "Strong Up/Down").

Then you can have the Expectancy values of individual traders for the last few years for performance comparison.

When only doing projections for "Strong Up/Down" without guessing any exact numbers of S&P 500 Index would make your game much more attractive (and much easier) to general traders who may use/convert their existing hourly or EOD systems to join your weekly projections game.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

Just 2 cents! :)
 
Last edited:

Pat494

Legendary member
14,621 1,578
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/127036-my-s-p500-prediction-week-8.html

" Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics. "

If my understanding is correct, I think you can easily convert all your old records for the last few years into this new Expectancy format by adding the classification of Strong maybe through an arbitrary number for now say 5 or 10 points. And your existing spreadsheet can be easily modified to handle the calculations (whether the traders entering a number or "Strong Up/Down").

Then you can have the Expectancy values of individual traders for the last few years for performance comparison.

When only doing projections for "Strong Up/Down" without guessing any exact numbers of S&P 500 Index would make your game much more attractive (and much easier) to general traders who may use/convert their existing hourly or EOD systems to join your weekly projections game.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

Just 2 cents! :)

I seem to remember that the rules were set out on a podium basis, after getting the initial direction correct, of the nearest 3 to stop having dead heats too often on a simple up/down basis. This way the vouchers won't have to be shared.
 

OddTrader

Junior member
24 0
I seem to remember that the rules were set out on a podium basis, after getting the initial direction correct, of the nearest 3 to stop having dead heats too often on a simple up/down basis. This way the vouchers won't have to be shared.

Let's view it in this way. The existing format is maintained with No changes.

However, when the Expectancy measure of individual traders are supplied. That can be a fairly valuable performance record that could be trusted by some institutional or retail investors for considering investing real money in the top winner systems. This potential reward would be relatively unlimited comparing to the vouchers to be shared.

This possibility is my personal understanding that could be unrealistic or not completely correct, but I would see the big picture this way.

Trading always-in-the-market and without stops-for-loss, when capital is large enough to back up the trades and draw-downs, is a legitimate system, as far as I know and was told. :idea:
 

lexcorp

Experienced member
1,982 564
2070 - (6 years before Virgin reduces round trip to moon with 2 nights stay over down to £2m p/p)
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Atilla

Atilla

Legendary member
19,850 3,104
No sign of odd ball ?
Seems to have chickened out ?

I guess he was expecting better consistent results from us. We must try harder to impress if we are ever going to get institutional funding on this competition league table (y)

Having said that I'd like to impress my hands on that cup now with the SPX idling at 2018 :cheesy:

Step aside boys and girls here's yours trully coming through :cool:

:love::love::love:
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,621 1,578
I guess he was expecting better consistent results from us. We must try harder to impress if we are ever going to get institutional funding on this competition league table (y)

Having said that I'd like to impress my hands on that cup now with the SPX idling at 2018 :cheesy:

Step aside boys and girls here's yours trully coming through :cool:

:love::love::love:

It is only Monday - it will bounce for sure.
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock