right, got to go out, and since this is a quicky, stop to BE, looking for 50 pips.
edit: that was a quicky indeed. came back for my wallet and out flat.
Last edited:
right, got to go out, and since this is a quicky, stop to BE, looking for 50 pips.
edit: that was a quicky indeed. came back for my wallet and out flat.
trendie
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are you using the Bago 5-EMA/8-SMA cross?
(I have abandoned them as being too choppy. too much screen-watching, and the results are patchy. or I could be not using them correctly.)
a_gnome
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Morning all,
Just thought that I'd pick up on the volatility issue that was being discussed yesterday. The fact that vol is getting smaller shouldn't necessarily be an issue as it all depends on the ratio of the range to the cost of the trade. Spreads have certainly come down over the years and the fact is that you can get spreads of 1 or 2 pips in cable now whereas when I first started it was standard to have a 5 pip spread. It's this ratio of available "meat" in the range to the costs of trading which should be the relevant measure.
I would also say that it's not necessarily the range that is the only factor but how it gets there. I've been thinking that the last couple of weeks have been pretty good trading wise as there have been some good moves in cable and EURJPY which have been nice and "clean" without too much whip to shake you out of your position. I would rather take 80 pips for a small initial risk with a nice clean ride then gun for 150 pips but have 70 pip retracements half way through the move. So perhaps I am proposing a second measure which would be the ratio of the move to counter-trend reactions within the move.
A third measure would be what proportion of the time you are trending compared to being in congestion (as we are today for cable and EURJPY). Recently this ratio has been rather high with some nice moves happening quite close together.
If anyone feels so enclined then they can calculate these three measure to see what they show us (though some of them would be a bit tricky to code up). Incidentally I (modestly) think that these three metrics should be called Gnome1,Gnome2 and Gnome3 ;-)
Just thought that I'd pick up on the volatility issue that was being discussed yesterday. The fact that vol is getting smaller shouldn't necessarily be an issue as it all depends on the ratio of the range to the cost of the trade. Spreads have certainly come down over the years and the fact is that you can get spreads of 1 or 2 pips in cable now whereas when I first started it was standard to have a 5 pip spread. It's this ratio of available "meat" in the range to the costs of trading which should be the relevant measure.
I would also say that it's not necessarily the range that is the only factor but how it gets there. I've been thinking that the last couple of weeks have been pretty good trading wise as there have been some good moves in cable and EURJPY which have been nice and "clean" without too much whip to shake you out of your position. I would rather take 80 pips for a small initial risk with a nice clean ride then gun for 150 pips but have 70 pip retracements half way through the move. So perhaps I am proposing a second measure which would be the ratio of the move to counter-trend reactions within the move.
A third measure would be what proportion of the time you are trending compared to being in congestion (as we are today for cable and EURJPY). Recently this ratio has been rather high with some nice moves happening quite close together.
If anyone feels so enclined then they can calculate these three measure to see what they show us (though some of them would be a bit tricky to code up). Incidentally I (modestly) think that these three metrics should be called Gnome1,Gnome2 and Gnome3 ;-)
Crap Buddist
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+2.8, ive cut that long getting a poss rollover coming. Waiting for a bit.
2be
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the long awaited move south for the cable has been very late coming, daily charts are still looking bullish,but 4hr and 1hr are ready for a sizable move south, esp the 4hr with MACD cross and Histogram signaling to go short. We might still se a spike up before a longer correction south. At the moment cable seats on a pivot @ 9914 which seemes to be defended on 15 min with indicators confirming. If this pivot is well crossed to the south, a short looks a possibility, as I type cable is biting that pivot but Stochastic is well in oversold and ADX is below 20 so it might be a false breakout.
oiltanker
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closed for -2. if it was going to go it would have gone by now? swiss is on the up.
trendie
5 8 for poss entry and exit [hourly] but i prefer it to be confirmed by macd and swiss. i'm just looking for a confirmation of a trend rather than every 5 8.
[thinking about it 5 8 is a fib ratio sequence so it might work with any fib sequence but i haven't tried that?]
today we now are in a 10-34 range sitting on the pivot so breakout strategy might now be more appropriate? which currently on my screen favours downside.
so say we get a break to downside and still macd confirmation i would use a 5 8 to get out if target of s1 or s2 not hit.
so yesterday i waited for a macd cross confirmation of up trend [5 8 had already crossed way back] which worked and today i didn't which went no where.
trendie
5 8 for poss entry and exit [hourly] but i prefer it to be confirmed by macd and swiss. i'm just looking for a confirmation of a trend rather than every 5 8.
[thinking about it 5 8 is a fib ratio sequence so it might work with any fib sequence but i haven't tried that?]
today we now are in a 10-34 range sitting on the pivot so breakout strategy might now be more appropriate? which currently on my screen favours downside.
so say we get a break to downside and still macd confirmation i would use a 5 8 to get out if target of s1 or s2 not hit.
so yesterday i waited for a macd cross confirmation of up trend [5 8 had already crossed way back] which worked and today i didn't which went no where.
Offshore Trader
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Right....short at 04. Now go somewhere, please
Offshore Trader
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It looks to me like a break lower is looming on EUR/JPY. Looking at the charts, I can best describe it as a double top, incorporating a head and shoulders. A break below 165.20 should confirm.
agreed. I was short this morning at 165.68 and hopped off at 165.48 for 20 pips. Re-entered short from 165.41, but it stubbornly wont go past 165.35 at the mo.
Crap Buddist
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Gone short 1.9915.5, systems playin up a bit again too, taking 60 seconds odd to open this page .... 
not fun.
Anyway short.
not fun. Anyway short.
Crap Buddist
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Reversed that short - 12 now long, 1.9927 holding up well, dunno if its gonna pull back to 1.9910/15 odd but cant hold open short.
