FX Trading May 14 - 18

[jacinto]

Last week cable broke out of its up channel, and of the previous week doji bar and closed below its low, which would suggest further downside.

Downside Scenario
sustained trading below 9850 would confirm this view.

Consolidation Scenario
A break back above 9850 would suggest consolidation,

Upside Scenario
upside needs to trade back above 2.000 and not trade back down in order to attack and break 2.0090 and then 2.0130

Euro crosses have interesting price action. will also post charts later.
(Im cooking sunday lunch.......but at least it wont be english food:cheesy: )

This week should be full of news announcement driven volatility.

good week trading.

j

since T2W has a calendar, I am not putting it here.

 

[rav700]

The week ahead

Hello all,

My thoughts for Cable.....
I am looking for a trip to 842 on break go all the way to 2$
On failure down to 670 and then watch the gradual longs build up all the way....

So I will be watching these levels....

According to the seasonal cable ranges for the last 15 and 25 years....Cable should fall till the 2nd week of June and then we should see a range...for the months following..

As far as intrest rate increases....well one more and I think that should do the trick and then we could say the intrest rate holding for the rest of the year......

This week inflation report should give us some idea........
of the future of cable.....

I am looking for 200 pips this week......

I have had a bit of a break from cable and am back...I am also looking at
GBP\JPY and EUR\JPY
If I complete my T.A by the evening will post them on the forum

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[madmax_uk]

Good to see you back Rav...hope that you had a good break and you hungry for more pips!

Out of interest, where do you get the info on the seasonal cable ranges for the last 15 and 25 years?

 

[rav700]

Just as Requested...Seasonal Pic

Thanks Mate I have attatched the chart .....
as requested

 

[rav700]

1st Trade of the week

As I said I have an aim of achieving 200 pips this week...
I shall be scalping the 10-20 pips here and there....

1st trade :
USD\YEN--
Short on opening @ 120.26
Stop @120.56
Target = 119.75

Pip profit on this trade = 51 pips...

I will wait for cable till tommorow morning I guess....
But I will just be eying 9842 very closely as I think that this level will be rejected and this is where I would like to put my short in....

Happy Trading All

Rav

 

[rav700]

2nd trade :
AUD\USD--
Short on opening @ 8317.5
Stop @8347.5
Target = 8275.5..
I might leave this trade open...

 

[2be]

Hi Rav, great to see you back, wishing you a good trading week. Cable seems to have its own rythm, hope to in tact with it too. So far I think the bias is south, so shall be taking confirmed short positions with rasonable SL.

 

[rav700]

Yes I agree 2be.....I am waiting for a proper signal to be honest to make my move on cable....
The 2 trades which I have place are move at b\e to be honest....I am really looking forward for the aussie to fall though.....
A pip is a pip my new philosophy....for now anyway

Best of luck
Happy Trading...

 

[rav700]

2nd trade :
AUD\USD--
Short on opening @ 8317.5
Stop @8347.5
Target = 8275.5..
I might leave this trade open...

NZD Retail sale is out @ 11:45 and is supposed to be negative hence I am hoping for this to be true well....The way this trade should work is
NZD Previous-1.9
Forecast- -0.2%

Hopefull if this is anywhere near -1.0% we should say a nice 30 pips in the bag......

 

[Atilla]

Hi Rav, good to see you are back.

My view for cable this week is that we will go down until Wednesday and then rise until the weekend.

Driver for this view is the movement of the DOW which I feel will rise to 13500 until midweek and then take a deep breath back down to 13100s.

I also think 1.980 will be significant resistance and feel cable this week will be range bound 1.99 - 1.97.

Your comment about cable falling until the 2nd week of June, Rav, sort of coincides with the indeces rising until then and falling through their summer break. For long term plays I think this will be the case. Continued fall of cable to 1.95-96 regions until June and then another attack on $2 into July August.

Good luck everyone.

 

[rav700]

NZD Retail sale is out @ 11:45 and is supposed to be negative hence I am hoping for this to be true well....The way this trade should work is
NZD Previous-1.9
Forecast- -0.2%

Hopefull if this is anywhere near -1.0% we should say a nice 30 pips in the bag......

-30 pips for the day...still got my usd\jpy trade open

 

[rav700]

As I said I have an aim of achieving 200 pips this week...
I shall be scalping the 10-20 pips here and there....

1st trade :
USD\YEN--
Short on opening @ 120.26
Stop @120.56
Target = 119.75

Pip profit on this trade = 51 pips...

I will wait for cable till tommorow morning I guess....
But I will just be eying 9842 very closely as I think that this level will be rejected and this is where I would like to put my short in....

Happy Trading All

Rav

I am out of this trade now for +16 and

Have a cable short on @842 with a stop @62

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Bought USD/JPY at 120.10

SL 119.70

 

[thecurrencydealer]

cable resis: 9860 then 9880, looking for another leg down below 9800
fibre resis: 3545/50, uncertain ... 8-(

 

[rav700]

Bought USD/JPY at 120.10

SL 119.70

Hi
TPF........

How's your trading going on?

Rav

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Hi
TPF........

How's your trading going on?

Rav

Hi Rav.

Nice to see you back.


Trading is going OK. Actually, will be concentrating on Ftse index from now on. But will still trade the currencies at a much less frequent level.


Good trading Rav….


TPF

 

[Crap Buddist]

Still not showing a roll over from that uptrend off of last fridays low 1.9765 odd, so reading it bullish on cable at the mo.

Suggested long theory value buy based on this AM's movement 1.9830- 1.9815


With it trading low 30's now that might be it... I'd like to se it whip sub 1.9825 and be snapped up but.. aint happening yet

so bulllish holding above that buy zone at the mo. See if magic 8.30 am kicks off , everyone should be awake by then

 

[trendie]

does this mean that I am paying a 9-pip spread for an option?

does it mean that I have a limited risk up till June, but potentially unlimited profit, (of course, accounting for time-decay and Delta, etc) ?

is this better than directional trading, as the down-side is limited?

EDIT: 9 pip spread, not 5!!

 

[Offshore Trader]

trendie, not sure what you mean....if you buy the option, it has to go higher or else you will lose 132 pips, if you sell it, if it goes higher then your risk is unlimited...options are great provided you have plenty of margin and allowance for big p&l swings and a very clear strategy

 

[Crap Buddist]

To support the long we should see pressure to break 1.9840/50 , with a MC Hammer (dont touch this ) on that 8.30 am low. no close's coming under it with any conviction.