FX-2007: Jan 22nd > Jan 26th

[wasp]

Kia ora all!

Now I don't want you all thinking I have become rich and gone off without even a word of thanks, I've just been busy but here I am. I still don't trade cable manually and the Scandics are my faves but this is 90% cable so I'll be here, just not as much. The thing with the cable strat is because the rules are so concrete, and the losses to wins are expected etc etc... no speculation or thoughts are made in the direction of the market at all so not much to add I'm afraid!

Currently watching and studying the kiwi dollar and may start swinging with that instead, this overnight trading malarky can be a hassle at times. Makes it very hard to drink during the week!

Anyhow, bit of news this week and cable is right up there at the moment so it does look ominous for a break one way or the other.... Its annoying IMO how when sterling gains, it does so in such small crappy moves (apart from the rate hike!) whereas opposite, the dollar can gain 500 pips in a week without batting an eyelid so personally, I'd prefer the downside but take each candle as it comes............

Good trading to all...


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1/22/2007 00:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY)
1/22/2007 00:30 AUS Producer Price Index (YoY)
1/22/2007 00:30 AUS New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)
1/22/2007 05:00 JPN Supermarket Sales (YoY)
1/22/2007 07:00 EU German Producer Prices (YoY)
1/22/2007 15:00 US Leading Indicators

1/23/2007 05:00 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for December
1/23/2007 10:00 EU Industrial New Orders (YoY)
1/23/2007 11:00 UK U.K. CBI January Industrial Trends Survey
1/23/2007 12:00 CAN Consumer Price Index (YoY)
1/23/2007 12:00 CAN Bank Canada CPI Core (YoY)
1/23/2007 13:30 CAN Retail Sales (MoM)
1/23/2007 13:30 CAN Leading Indicators (MoM)
1/23/2007 15:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
1/23/2007 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence
1/23/2007 23:00 AUS Conference Board Leading Index
1/23/2007 23:50 JPN All Industry Activity Index

1/24/2007 00:30 AUS Consumer Prices (YoY)
1/24/2007 00:30 AUS CPI Market Prices (YoY)
1/24/2007 02:00 NZ Credit Card Spending (YoY)
1/24/2007 09:30 UK Bank of England Minutes
1/24/2007 09:30 UK GDP (YoY)
1/24/2007 09:30 UK Index of Services (3mth/3mth)
1/24/2007 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
1/24/2007 20:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate
1/24/2007 23:50 JPN Merchnds Trade Balance Total

1/25/2007 09:00 EU ECB Euro-Zone Current Account
1/25/2007 09:00 EU German IFO-Business Climate
1/25/2007 09:00 EU German IFO-Current Assessment
1/25/2007 09:00 EU German IFO-Expectations
1/25/2007 11:01 NZ ANZ-Business NZ PMI
1/25/2007 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
1/25/2007 13:30 US Continuing Claims
1/25/2007 15:00 US Help Wanted Index
1/25/2007 15:00 US Existing Home Sales
1/25/2007 23:30 JPN Tokyo CPI (YoY)
1/25/2007 23:30 JPN Natl CPI (YoY)
1/25/2007 23:50 JPN Corp Service Price (YoY)

1/26/2007 07:10 EU German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
1/26/2007 09:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY)
1/26/2007 09:30 UK BBA releases November UK Mortgage Lending Figures
1/26/2007 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders
1/26/2007 15:00 US New Home Sales

 

[trendie]

poll; chose "other".
specifics: I go where the trend takes me. I dont care if the dollar goes to 2 or down to 1.5, as long as I can get on the ride, and it trends with minimal whipsaws.

Glad to see you post again wasp. Isnt New Zealand now "Middle Earth"? Watch out for the hobbits!

Last week saw two new additions to the membership, Crap Buddist, who seems to be doing quite well scalping, and JohnGFX.

Hope these guys stay along for the ride, as we seem to be seeing more ways to nibble away at this cable.

good trading all. we need more charts posting I think.

 

[wasp]

You know I am just like yourself there Trendie... where it is on Friday afternoon is irrelevant and really unimportant to me but its always good to see the general consensus and it brightens up the thread...

Now, charts you say.............

 

[fibonelli]

Doji on 19 Jan.

I'm expecting a retracement to 1.9507 at the very worst, more likely is 1.9565 to 1.96

 

[jacinto]

Doji on 19 Jan.

I'm expecting a retracement to 1.9507 at the very worst, more likely is 1.9565 to 1.96

One of the possible scenarios I have is certainly what you have posted.

I see several things in my charts.

1) pitchfork on 4hr and daily chart (i fear trading against pitchforks formed at double bottoms :cheesy: )
2) the doji you mention, i prefer to see as an inside bar at resistance
3) I have 9785 marked as the last relevant, possibly the strongest level of resistance before taking 9850
4) weekly chart had an outside bar taking price to 9270. next 2 bars only managed to bust 20 pips through it, and makes me think of downside. :?:

my scenarios for the week are

1) a run up to 9770 again, and a run down to around 9590, possibly 9530, and worst case9470, giving breathing space for a stronger attempt next week at 9850
2) a run down to around 9650, and then a bust of 9800 for a run to 9900 even 9950

I think i prefer scenario 1, but it could be signalling a lower high. 9670-9770 has definitely proved a cluster of support-resistance. I am wondering if this is signalling a short or even a long term top at 9850. The monthly chart certainly does not suggest that yet, so i am discarding that possibility for the time being, unless we see 9300 again this week....very unlikely.

just reading price, trading naked.....well, wear underpants on some charts :cheesy: .

j

Poll: Other......please specify what does "soon" mean

 

[geldmeister]

Shorts from the 815 to 850 look good if seen, until then looking to short from the 770/75.

Cheers,

gm

 

[wasp]

Poll: Other......please specify what does "soon" mean

Next few weeks. Mid to late February.

 

[coolTrader]

here we go .. Any Ideas what the market is waiting for??

 

[trendie]

Is this a Wolfe Wave? ( to the downside if it hits the upper line )

 

[wasp]

Or even just a slightly bigger triangle begging a breakout one way or the other.........

 

[jacinto]

Is this a Wolfe Wave? ( to the downside if it hits the upper line )

hi trendie,

strictly speaking, no. 1-3-5 should be higher highs. 2-4 higher highs (EDIT. should read higher lows )too.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=22442&page=10&pp=10
see post 91 for chart example, and 93 for explanation of rules.

j

 

[trendie]

hi trendie,

strictly speaking, no. 1-3-5 should be higher highs. 2-4 higher highs too.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=22442&page=10&pp=10
see post 91 for chart example, and 93 for explanation of rules.

j

thanks j,

I always thought the 1-3-5 and 2-4 should converge! and target was 1-4 extended.
(cant access wolfewave.com, but thats where I got it from)

EDIT: nice tight breakout range: 735-755.
has Big Ben triggered?

 

[jacinto]

thanks j,

I always thought the 1-3-5 and 2-4 should converge! and target was 1-4 extended.
(cant access wolfewave.com, but thats where I got it from)

they do have to converge, in a rising wedge for the bear case. otherwise, as wasp points out, you have a triangle.

j

 

[zuke]

thanks j,

I always thought the 1-3-5 and 2-4 should converge! and target was 1-4 extended.
(cant access wolfewave.com, but thats where I got it from)

EDIT: nice tight breakout range: 735-755.
has Big Ben triggered?

Big Ben should have been triggered just now (although I cant remember if the range is until 10:00 GMT).

As for price, the doji referred to isn't quite "clean" enough to be definitive, but I cannot see a way past 9778 res until we've seen a run down to 9590 first. Hence I have shorts triggered from 9739

 

[Offshore Trader]

VEBO short at 33

 

[JohnG FX]

Morning all

No real change for from Friday

Holding cable short from 9757 targeting 9590
Holding GBP/CHF short from 2.4638 looking for a decent correction- hopefully

Also gone short on GBP/JPY @ 239.78 no chart signal to warrant the trade, just becoming wary of the massive short Yen positions and have a feeling a correction is due, maybe this week

EUR/GBP running out of sellers so any corrective bounce on that would help the short GBP trades

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Are the markets really open or has the weekend been extended due to lack of interest... Seems no point in opening any position in cable at the moment.

 

[City Bound]

BO short at 726.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Still short from 33, excellent short op just flagged on that pop up 35/40. Hourlies strength falling, showing downside on my book so perhaps we should see a pick up in an attempt of a retreat south .

Always possible we may yet have more range bound from london, but at the moment Im looking ,or rather holding short based on hourlies falling strength.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Are the markets really open or has the weekend been extended due to lack of interest... Seems no point in opening any position in cable at the moment.

Perhaps Phil they have been put off with your psychic call last friday long 700 to 60
Or just waiting for a break from between 700 and 780 perhaps.