FX 2007 > March 5th - 9th

[Crap Buddist]

hmm just been watching bloomberg, talking low payrolls going forward next few months, euro 135 end of march, US rate cuts likely to be priced in.

Rate rise UK ? next month or 2 ? cable $ 1.98 -2.00 seems like a plan. Is that too ambitious looking forward 3-5 weeks ?

 

[rav700]

1. Friday, March 9th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Industrial Production coming up. Industrial Production measures both manufacturing and mining activity in the UK. It's expected to come out at 0.2%. Do you want really safe triggers? I believe that if Industrial Production comes out at 0.6% or higher, it would probably be good for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly increase by 50 pips or more. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, it would probably be bad for the pound, so GBP/USD may possibly decrease by 50 pips or more. There maybe a nice retracement opportunity for after spike trade on this one. You may want to try to shoot for an entry within 15 pips of the pre-release price, 20 pips max. I may personally trade with a less conservative trigger, but if you are inexperienced and trading by yourself, I suggest the triggers above.

2. Friday, March 9th, 2007 (7:00 am New York Time) CANADA
We have Canadian Employment Report coming up. It's expected to come up at around 5K or so. Canadian employment market has been particularly bullish...nobody knows why Most other sectors of the economy are suffering, including GDP. Nobody can figure out where the jobs are coming from. If you want safe triggers...I would say a reading of 50K or higher would probably be good for the Canadian dollar, and USD/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more. If the reading is at -50K or more negative, USD/CAD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more. Be aware of any conflicting revisions of more than 20K, and be aware of unemployment rate that's expected at 6.2. If unemployment rate conflicts by even 0.1%, I would be extra careful, because the reading of 6.1 would match the lowest reading in many years. If you miss the initial spike, I wouldn't chase this trade. Usually, it makes 90% of its move in the first 15 seconds, and usually doesn't retrace much, and doesn't go do wn much lower than the initial spike.

3. Friday, March 9th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US Non-Farm payroll coming out, together with Trade Balance. I wouldn't worry about trade balance too much...that report is a real dog...if it conflicts, it may simply be an opportunity to enter after spike in the right direction of Non-Farm. Non-Farm payroll is expected at 95K. If you want a nice conservative trade, I would say that if non-farm comes out at 165K or higher, it would be good for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by 80 to 120 pips or more. If it comes out at 25K or lower, GBP/USD may possibly increase by 80 to 120 pips or more, since it would be bad for the dollar. Price levels before this report may be important, so watch out for strong support and resistance levels. Definitely watch for revisions on Non-Farm payroll, and watch out for unemployment rate, that's expected at 4.6%. If unemployment rate conflicts by 0.2% or more, and/or revisions conflict by more than 20K, I would be extremely careful...

I am posting this from an email that I receive.....Anything that helps the boards..

 

[dc2000]

short now closed and turned looks like another boring day

 

[Atilla]

hmm just been watching bloomberg, talking low payrolls going forward next few months, euro 135 end of march, US rate cuts likely to be priced in.

Rate rise UK ? next month or 2 ? cable $ 1.98 -2.00 seems like a plan. Is that too ambitious looking forward 3-5 weeks ?

I think $2.00 is on the cards but the BoE doesn't like to raise interest rates in quick succession especially in all this turmoil. Interest rate hikes take 6 months to have some affect.

3-5 months maybe.

I think BoE is depending on immigration, CPI and RPI changes to keep headline inflation and wage bargaining low. Pure deception. The numbers look bad though.

Despite the poor UK industrial figures cable holding up. Good sign.

I like Rav's post employment analysis. Be watching that one closely for impact on cable.

 

[2be]

short now closed and turned looks like another boring day

The Low indicated in my strategy was 9266 for the day, it have been reached and if so the indication for H might be 9350, however cable already has been @9333 early last night, and going long too far above 300 seems too risky for me at the moment.

 

[dc2000]

The Low indicated in my strategy was 9266 for the day, it have been reached and if so the indication for H might be 9350, however cable already has been @9333 early last night, and going long too far above 300 seems too risky for me at the moment.

looks like I may not get the 200 pips Im in @75 no worries I'll settle for 185 :cheesy: dont want to see 247 though

seems cable waiting for the FTSE to don chutes for the freefall 6210 and were outta here

 

[2be]

looks like I may not get the 200 pips Im in @75 no worries I'll settle for 185 :cheesy: dont want to see 247 though

I am out for now and wish for a convincing signal either way. On 15 min poss a short scalp scenario for 15pps, no, dont feel like scalping for it.

 

[2be]

I think $2.00 is on the cards but the BoE doesn't like to raise interest rates in quick succession especially in all this turmoil. Interest rate hikes take 6 months to have some affect.

3-5 months maybe.

I think BoE is depending on immigration, CPI and RPI changes to keep headline inflation and wage bargaining low. Pure deception. The numbers look bad though.

Despite the poor UK industrial figures cable holding up. Good sign.

I like Rav's post employment analysis. Be watching that one closely for impact on cable.

Posted by Saxo Bank
USD

The dollar remains range bound ahead of the US Non-farm payrolls. The ADP reading showed 47K on Wednesday, but has proven in the past now to be as reliable as their back testing showed. We will put like this. A reading below is dollar bearish and a reading above 150K is dollar bullish and we will look to trade accordingly. For EURUSD we still need to see a break above 1.3213 which would give scope for a test of 1.3260-95 which is our preferred scenario below 80K for NFP. Wednesday's Fed Beige Book showed most districts report modest economic expansion, price pressures little changed overall; housing market remained weak; pay increases generally moderate overall; most districts showing expansion in labor market. most districts reported moderate growth, but several "noted some slowing". This is a softer tone than the last (Jan 17) Beige Book.

GBP

BoE left rates unchanged yesterday as expected, but the pound sold-off as there was market rumors ahead of the announcement that a hike was possible as MPC was looking to keep inflated house prices in check. But we were not surprised as we saw the inflation target for 2008 has been downgraded to 2.0%. Could suggest that MPC have some sort of idea of what the next CPI reading coming out of the UK is going to be. Earlier today, the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production disappointed the market, suggesting the a lower GBP will be seen.


In a longer term 200 for cable is possible, but this move will not be generated by positive drive in UK but by the negative performance of the USD. The difficulty is that on such time frame it is possible to be expecting the right move and be "proved right", but loose money in short term trading.

 

[Crap Buddist]

I think $2.00 is on the cards but the BoE doesn't like to raise interest rates in quick succession especially in all this turmoil. Interest rate hikes take 6 months to have some affect.

3-5 months maybe.

I think BoE is depending on immigration, CPI and RPI changes to keep headline inflation and wage bargaining low. Pure deception. The numbers look bad though.

Despite the poor UK industrial figures cable holding up. Good sign.

I like Rav's post employment analysis. Be watching that one closely for impact on cable.

Cheers, maybe I was getting a tad ahead of myself , going giddy trying to predict on Fuzzymentals and looked at chart and thought 2 Dollar.

Although its been to 1.99 and maybe if the talk increases for weak US and dollar, I didnt think it was too ambitious, guess it depends on how they price it in. I thought well price in the likely 6 months ahead now , sort of thing.

Any fundamental traders, able to expand on timing of fundamental news ,& time worked to affect price ?

 

[Atilla]

Cheers, maybe I was getting a tad ahead of myself , going giddy trying to predict on Fuzzymentals and looked at chart and thought 2 Dollar.

Although its been to 1.99 and maybe if the talk increases for weak US and dollar, I didnt think it was too ambitious, guess it depends on how they price it in. I thought well price in the likely 6 months ahead now , sort of thing.

Any fundamental traders, able to expand on timing of fundamental news ,& time worked to affect price ?

2be is right and that any rise in GBP is likely to be more a case of USD falling imo.

On the FA I'd read this write up on the Twin Defecits. Unless it's sorted $ in long run will keep going down...

 

[Uphios]

2be is right and that any rise in GBP is likely to be more a case of USD falling imo.

On the FA I'd read this write up on the Twin Defecits. Unless it's sorted $ in long run will keep going down...

This Twin Defecit problem has been festering in the background for a long time now, more than 10 years I would say. I think it's true that it is a growing problem but the scale of it is such that it could take another 10 years before it becomes palpable. As a related aside, the US defecit problems in terms of gdp are matched or even slightly exceeded by the UK. So if the dollar ever adjusts to address the problem the chances are the pound will suffer in a similar way.

 

[rav700]

Another 15 mins left for the N.F.P
My Views just quickly
I guess I dont think their will be much of a change in the NFP number...Expected is 95...I am expecting the figure to be around 125.....so may the force be with you DC if this happens...I think we might have a chance to see your 211...I am so tempted to go short....but aint go the B**ls to do this at this point as I trade and dont gamble.
I will probably wait for 5 mins after I place my trade.
I want to go short though...................................

 

[2be]

Another 15 mins left for the N.F.P
My Views just quickly
I guess I dont think their will be much of a change in the NFP number...Expected is 95...I am expecting the figure to be around 125.....so may the force be with you DC if this happens...I think we might have a chance to see your 211...I am so tempted to go short....but aint go the B**ls to do this at this point as I trade and dont gamble.
I will probably wait for 5 mins after I place my trade.
I want to go short though...................................

15 min divergence on MACD Histogram!!!! on cable and EUR/USD

 

[Crap Buddist]

well looks like 280 last day or so was snapped up, dont see too much sign of dumping up 320 odd, come on 2 dollar

LOL i like the idea of trading against the US, its patriotic to cheer on the Pound.

What anthem will we be singing as it kicks off, God save the queen, or ohhh say can you see...

ok sensible mode now ,ish.

 

[2be]

15 min divergence on MACD Histogram!!!! on cable and EUR/USD

got 27pps and out

 

[2be]

got 27pps and out

MACD Divergence seems to have been a good signal this time!!!!
Cable doubled the pips numbers v EUR/USD

 

[Crap Buddist]

**** it, come on london let those ****ers have it........

 

[2be]

**** it, come on london let those ****ers have it........

Cable and EUR/USD have polarised

 

[Crap Buddist]

UsdChf, had a nice pop, eurgbp helping cable ? hmmm doji roll over to next week ?

 

[2be]

UsdChf, had a nice pop, eurgbp helping cable ? hmmm doji roll over to next week ?

ED pulled cable down another good short and out, with the second helping better then the first.
Time for a brew