FX 2007 > March 5th - 9th

[wasp]

The poll exp.

YMCA = a chart covered in coloured lines (MA's, MACD, Fibs) look like a rainbow = camp = YMCA!
JECKYL + HYDE = one indicator for comfort
LUKE = nothing but the bars/candles

_________________________


NFP week, yay!



3/4/2007 22:30 AUS AiG Performance of Service Ind n/a 49.5
3/4/2007 23:30 AUS TD Securities Inflation YoY% n/a 3.1%
3/4/2007 23:50 JPN Capital Spending n/a 12.0%

3/5/2007 00:30 AUS Company Operating Profit QoQ% n/a 0.6%
3/5/2007 00:30 AUS Inventories n/a -1.5%
3/5/2007 08:55 EU German PMI Services (survey) n/a 58.3
3/5/2007 09:00 EU PMI Services (survey) n/a 57.9
3/5/2007 09:00 EU Euro-Zone February Composite PMI n/a n/a
3/5/2007 09:30 UK Official Reserves (Changes) n/a $35M
3/5/2007 09:30 UK PMI Services (survey) n/a 59.2
3/5/2007 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing 57.5 59.0
3/5/2007 15:00 CAN Ivey Purchasing Managers Index 55.0 53.8

3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Trade Balance n/a -1336M
3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Exports n/a 17781M
3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Building Approvals (YoY) n/a -1.5%
3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Imports n/a 19118M
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) n/a 2.1%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) n/a 2.7%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Gross Fix Cap (QoQ) n/a 0.6%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Govt Expend (QoQ) n/a 0.6%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Household Cons (QoQ) n/a 0.7%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU European Commission GDP Forecasts (Table) n/a n/a
3/6/2007 11:00 UK BRC February Retail Sales Monitor n/a n/a
3/6/2007 12:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price n/a 1.3%
3/6/2007 13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 1.8% n/a
3/6/2007 13:30 CAN Building Permits MoM 4.0% -7.8%
3/6/2007 13:30 US Unit Labor Costs 3.1% 1.7%
3/6/2007 14:00 CAN Bank of Canada Rate n/a 4.25%
3/6/2007 15:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM 0.3% 4.9%
3/6/2007 15:00 US Factory Orders -1.5% 2.4%
3/6/2007 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
3/6/2007 22:30 AUS AiG Perf of Construction Index n/a 48.4
3/6/2007 22:30 AUS RBA CASH TARGET 6.25% 6.25%

3/7/2007 00:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence n/a 84
3/7/2007 00:30 AUS Gross Domestic Product (YoY) n/a 2.2%
3/7/2007 05:00 JPN Coincident Index n/a 75.0%
3/7/2007 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index n/a 31.8%
3/7/2007 05:30 AUS Foreign Reserves n/a A$76.8B
3/7/2007 11:00 EU German Factory Orders YoY (nsa) n/a 1.7%
3/7/2007 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications n/a n/a
3/7/2007 13:15 US ADP Employment Change n/a 126K
3/7/2007 19:00 US Fed's Beige Book n/a n/a
3/7/2007 20:00 US Consumer Credit $6.4B $6.0B
3/7/2007 20:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 7.50% 7.25%
3/7/2007 21:45 NZ Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) n/a -1.9%
3/7/2007 23:50 JPN Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) n/a 1.0%
3/7/2007 23:50 JPN Broad Liquidity (YoY) n/a 2.6%
3/7/2007 23:50 JPN Bank Lending (YoY) n/a 1.7%

3/8/2007 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a 6.0%
3/8/2007 10:30 UK BRC February Shop Price Index n/a n/a
3/8/2007 11:00 EU German Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) n/a 5.2%
3/8/2007 12:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 5.25% 5.25%
3/8/2007 12:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates n/a 3.5%
3/8/2007 13:15 CAN Housing Starts 215.0K 248.5K
3/8/2007 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
3/8/2007 13:30 CAN New Housing Price Index MoM n/a 0.0%
3/8/2007 13:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
3/8/2007 23:50 JPN Machine Orders YoY% n/a -3.8%

3/9/2007 00:30 AUS Home Loans n/a 0.1%
3/9/2007 00:30 AUS Investment Lending n/a 4.0%
3/9/2007 07:00 EU German Trade Balance n/a 10.8B
3/9/2007 07:00 EU Current Account (EURO) n/a 9.8B
3/9/2007 07:00 EU German Imports SA (MoM) n/a 5.0%
3/9/2007 07:00 EU German Exports SA (MoM) n/a -2.0%
3/9/2007 09:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 0.4%
3/9/2007 09:30 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) n/a 2.3%
3/9/2007 11:00 EU Euro-Zone OECD Leading Ind. n/a 109.3
3/9/2007 12:00 CAN Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.2%
3/9/2007 13:30 US Trade Balance -$60.7B -$61.2B
3/9/2007 13:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 105K 111K
3/9/2007 13:30 CAN Int'l Merchandise Trade n/a C$5.0
3/9/2007 13:30 US Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6%
3/9/2007 13:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls -20K -16K
3/9/2007 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY n/a 4.0%
3/9/2007 13:30 US Average Weekly Hours 33.8 33.8
3/9/2007 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories 0.1% -0.5%

 

[xx_joray_xx]

hey whats does nfp week mean

The poll exp.

YMCA = a chart covered in coloured lines (MA's, MACD, Fibs) look like a rainbow = camp = YMCA!
JECKYL + HYDE = one indicator for comfort
LUKE = nothing but the bars/candles

_________________________


NFP week, yay!



3/4/2007 22:30 AUS AiG Performance of Service Ind n/a 49.5
3/4/2007 23:30 AUS TD Securities Inflation YoY% n/a 3.1%
3/4/2007 23:50 JPN Capital Spending n/a 12.0%

3/5/2007 00:30 AUS Company Operating Profit QoQ% n/a 0.6%
3/5/2007 00:30 AUS Inventories n/a -1.5%
3/5/2007 08:55 EU German PMI Services (survey) n/a 58.3
3/5/2007 09:00 EU PMI Services (survey) n/a 57.9
3/5/2007 09:00 EU Euro-Zone February Composite PMI n/a n/a
3/5/2007 09:30 UK Official Reserves (Changes) n/a $35M
3/5/2007 09:30 UK PMI Services (survey) n/a 59.2
3/5/2007 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing 57.5 59.0
3/5/2007 15:00 CAN Ivey Purchasing Managers Index 55.0 53.8

3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Trade Balance n/a -1336M
3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Exports n/a 17781M
3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Building Approvals (YoY) n/a -1.5%
3/6/2007 00:30 AUS Imports n/a 19118M
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) n/a 2.1%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) n/a 2.7%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Gross Fix Cap (QoQ) n/a 0.6%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Govt Expend (QoQ) n/a 0.6%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU Euro-Zone Household Cons (QoQ) n/a 0.7%
3/6/2007 10:00 EU European Commission GDP Forecasts (Table) n/a n/a
3/6/2007 11:00 UK BRC February Retail Sales Monitor n/a n/a
3/6/2007 12:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price n/a 1.3%
3/6/2007 13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 1.8% n/a
3/6/2007 13:30 CAN Building Permits MoM 4.0% -7.8%
3/6/2007 13:30 US Unit Labor Costs 3.1% 1.7%
3/6/2007 14:00 CAN Bank of Canada Rate n/a 4.25%
3/6/2007 15:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM 0.3% 4.9%
3/6/2007 15:00 US Factory Orders -1.5% 2.4%
3/6/2007 22:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence n/a n/a
3/6/2007 22:30 AUS AiG Perf of Construction Index n/a 48.4
3/6/2007 22:30 AUS RBA CASH TARGET 6.25% 6.25%

3/7/2007 00:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence n/a 84
3/7/2007 00:30 AUS Gross Domestic Product (YoY) n/a 2.2%
3/7/2007 05:00 JPN Coincident Index n/a 75.0%
3/7/2007 05:00 JPN Leading Economic Index n/a 31.8%
3/7/2007 05:30 AUS Foreign Reserves n/a A$76.8B
3/7/2007 11:00 EU German Factory Orders YoY (nsa) n/a 1.7%
3/7/2007 12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications n/a n/a
3/7/2007 13:15 US ADP Employment Change n/a 126K
3/7/2007 19:00 US Fed's Beige Book n/a n/a
3/7/2007 20:00 US Consumer Credit $6.4B $6.0B
3/7/2007 20:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 7.50% 7.25%
3/7/2007 21:45 NZ Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) n/a -1.9%
3/7/2007 23:50 JPN Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) n/a 1.0%
3/7/2007 23:50 JPN Broad Liquidity (YoY) n/a 2.6%
3/7/2007 23:50 JPN Bank Lending (YoY) n/a 1.7%

3/8/2007 06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a 6.0%
3/8/2007 10:30 UK BRC February Shop Price Index n/a n/a
3/8/2007 11:00 EU German Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) n/a 5.2%
3/8/2007 12:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 5.25% 5.25%
3/8/2007 12:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates n/a 3.5%
3/8/2007 13:15 CAN Housing Starts 215.0K 248.5K
3/8/2007 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
3/8/2007 13:30 CAN New Housing Price Index MoM n/a 0.0%
3/8/2007 13:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
3/8/2007 23:50 JPN Machine Orders YoY% n/a -3.8%

3/9/2007 00:30 AUS Home Loans n/a 0.1%
3/9/2007 00:30 AUS Investment Lending n/a 4.0%
3/9/2007 07:00 EU German Trade Balance n/a 10.8B
3/9/2007 07:00 EU Current Account (EURO) n/a 9.8B
3/9/2007 07:00 EU German Imports SA (MoM) n/a 5.0%
3/9/2007 07:00 EU German Exports SA (MoM) n/a -2.0%
3/9/2007 09:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a 0.4%
3/9/2007 09:30 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) n/a 2.3%
3/9/2007 11:00 EU Euro-Zone OECD Leading Ind. n/a 109.3
3/9/2007 12:00 CAN Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.2%
3/9/2007 13:30 US Trade Balance -$60.7B -$61.2B
3/9/2007 13:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 105K 111K
3/9/2007 13:30 CAN Int'l Merchandise Trade n/a C$5.0
3/9/2007 13:30 US Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6%
3/9/2007 13:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls -20K -16K
3/9/2007 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY n/a 4.0%
3/9/2007 13:30 US Average Weekly Hours 33.8 33.8
3/9/2007 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories 0.1% -0.5%

 

[wasp]

nfp = non farm payrolls

 

[wasp]

wow! what a start to the week!

 

[Atilla]

wow! what a start to the week!

Certainly is. Already creamed 90 pips off cable. I'm out now as expecting support at 1.9260 regions.

 

[Uphios]

wow! what a start to the week!

I wish I had retained my short bias.

 

[Atilla]

I wish I had retained my short bias.

Expecting a retrace to 1.9310-15 and the will try another short if it fails to touch 1.9318 with a tight SL.

 

[Uphios]

EURo falls below Y153.00 on EBS.

Anyone know what EBS is??

 

[Atilla]

EURo falls below Y153.00 on EBS.

Anyone know what EBS is??

European Bank System I'd guess.

Going back short on cable again at 1.9317. Bit risky but see what happens.

 

[Uphios]

European Bank System I'd guess.

Going back short on cable again at 1.9317. Bit risky but see what happens.

EBS appears to be an electonic trading platform. Not really helpful, I thought it was going to be the reason for this unexpected slide in £ and gain in Yen.

 

[wasp]

EBS appears to be an electonic trading platform. Not really helpful, I thought it was going to be the reason for this unexpected slide in £ and gain in Yen.

for the £ POV I'd put it down to the Asians joining in on the drop that they were allready in bed for on Friday!

 

[Uphios]

for the £ POV I'd put it down to the Asians joining in on the drop that they were allready in bed for on Friday!

Yep, think so. I guess this all the carry trade unwinding. Higher interest currencies suffering and I suspect the catalyst was last weeks comment from Greenspan and BoE expressing concern about the value of the pound. Looked to me like the swissie was unwound first and then the yen but I didn't expect the pound to take quite such a bashing. Now back to where I consider to be on par with the euro so this little drop should be near an end.

Lots of currency moving news this week though.

 

[Atilla]

European Bank System I'd guess.

Going back short on cable again at 1.9317. Bit risky but see what happens.

I'm all out now... 1.9301. Going to sleep well tonight. What a ride...

 

[xx_joray_xx]

cable has giving away its pips for the day.....

 

[jacinto]

THis will be the longest day i have.

good morning, just saw the chart, and until tomorrow lol.

 

[Offshore Trader]

Morning everyone....it's disappointing to see a 200 point move whilst I've been asleep. I hope there's still some left for those of us who work normal hours.....

 

[hornblower]

looking at a 1 year chart
if its going any lower then 19200 is my target
i have a small triangle from 254 up to 400
as o/t says we may have had our move for the day


edit
a return to 505 would do me ,

 

[Atilla]

looking at a 1 year chart
if its going any lower then 19200 is my target
i have a small triangle from 254 up to 400
as o/t says we may have had our move for the day


edit
a return to 505 would do me ,

I think 1.92 is likely to be some kind of bottom or support to GBP but other than the daily support lines I can't see a buy signal yet. My MA indicators are still on the short side.

In fact in this selling frenzy I have it on my charts that it could well go down to 1.9170 area.

 

[29Investments]

European Bank System I'd guess.

Going back short on cable again at 1.9317. Bit risky but see what happens.

EBS is Electronic broker system, it is the mechanism by which the Banks who are making the market trade with each other .In FX it is the closest thing to a centralised exchange.

 

[Uphios]

I hope I'm not being to optimistic but but it has dropped that far, especially against Yen that it must be tempting for the carry traders who closed anyehere near the top to get back in. After all there is still a large interest rate differential and nothing has fundementally changed. Probably not today, but soon.