Just noticed your post about NOT shorting. I took it this time +8, but it was a bit of a gamble.
FWIW - and bear in mind I think there's a lot of downside to go, through to Tuesday, before we head up again, my preferred wave count is that we've completed a B wave (of a wave 4) up from early July, so we could go as low or lower than 3950. Seems a bit far, which is another good reason for me not to trust my count - LOL. Of course wave C can fail, so we may never know. Is this enough ammunition for the EW doubters....
Yes - B would finish at 184. The main reason I think this is a B wave is that the waves are overlapping, extending into what would otherwise be a wave 1 impulse. This is not alowed in EW rules except in a wave 2, but this can't be the case here. Further, this move has taken a whole month to move just 230 points, which I think is too slow for an impulsive wave. It's most likely to be an abc-X-abc.
If I'm wrong, and this has been an impulse up, it must be wave 1 of 5, in which case the Ftse is going much higher in August/September, but it just doesn't count cleanly. I think this count is unlikely.
You could be right. I'm not happy with the wave count over the last few days either. This goes back to my point about corrective waves. Either wave 2 or wave 4 is complex and this sure is a complex wave. Having recognised that it's a complex corrective wave it's almost worthless trying to put a count on it, but there is value just in recognising that it is corrective wave as that helps to identify the potential wave count at a higher level and to project potential targets. It also means that extra care has to be taken when trading as the market can whipsaw, other signals can start giving spurious signals, and waves can appear to correct or impulse in both directions. . This is the point I was trying to make earlier.
Do we really want to clog up this thread with numerous wave counts from numerous watchers. Is it not just going to lead to confusion? I will disappear if we get this confusion as it will only be distracting (if only to me). Please could everyone read Piper and his health warning re EW.
Instead lets have more discussion and examples of low risk trades.
Maybe it's not about foresight either - but just following
If anyone's interested in foresight clues other than EWs
you may be interested to know that 9 of my ftse 12
(a slightly different list than Bonsai's) have appeared in
my "get ready to short" watch list.
RBS, AZN, HBOS and LLOY have all retreated from double/
triple tops. HSBC has failed twice to penetrate
resistance. TSCO has slipped out of channel.
By breaking through swing lows some time ago DGE,
GSK (already short in these) and SHLL are in downtrend
although GSK and SHLL are sitting on Fib50 support just
With so many bear markers down the market is almost
bound to rise!! But unless our american friend does great
things today I'll not be too comfortable with extended longs
for a bit.
Be-Positive - Where did you get my picture from? Bonsai - Very good day today with the 1 minute D4F 60/100/5 MACD setting. Missed your PPS earlier about posting trades but I will post some shortly if people are interested. I am still a novice though and a bit trigger happy when in profit but the +46 on Thursday was a real breakthrough for me as my previous best was +15. I`m sure the MACD setting is worth a look and a more experienced trader would do well with it.
just looking back on friday.
I didnt mention that there are 2 fibs around 95
so it wasnt likely the fib traders would let it break that easily
and would see this mornings fall as a buy.
Bought at 8.26 @90 using D4F 1 minute 60/100/5 MACD and sold at 9.12 @ 04 for +14 before a sell signal. Very hairy moment at 9.02 when it dropped from 110 to 95 in 2 minutes. Regretting selling already as it still looks strong.