Dow Intraday charts 14/Mar - 18/Mar

[ChartMan]

New week

 

[tradesmart]

The Dow has clearly reached a critical juncture imho....

The obvious Head and Shoulders setup could deliver a 200 point fall to 10575 ish, but support could be forming at the lower trendline from the 10400 lows and a PD bottom forming on RSI could indicate the start of a ‘W’ and another wave up within the rising channel…

Candles and lines on a chart can only hint at possible price scenarios; the news this week will determine direction…

The OPEC meeting on Wednesday could produce a hint of increased output to calm the burgeoning price of oil and the fixed income market, but the current account data released on the same day has been identified as a potential “catastrophe” for the stock market…..

Take your pick……

edit – Jun Futs 5min chart added - another falling wedge triangle as a result of the price action over the last three sessions, culminating in a break to the upside tonite – the notional target is c.10900 imho (knock 30ish off to get the cash value….)

 

[ChartMan]

3 day PD, failed H&S ( so far) so has to be up..... or does it?

 

[ChartMan]

Although 10 min suggests up, this doesn't. Hardly any room in CCI or RSI unless something happens early on .
Wonder what happened to Friday ..

 

[tradesmart]

Wonder what happened to Friday

Quadruple Witching this coming Friday - broomsticks at the ready.....!......

 

[ChartMan]

Well, it went up, and it went down Is this now the H&S ? Not a lot of room in CCI/RSI to go all the way to 600 ..yet... So maybe 730 ish will support.....

 

[ChartMan]

Once the Dtop went, that was the end of that, and a nice slide all the way down to the close.Not so eaasy to hold onto with 25 point + pullbacks

 

[blackcab]

I hardly get any time to learn and practice, but I looked last night at 9pm and it seemed to me a perfect case of repeated lower highs/lower lows, bumping down nicely. Did anyone here trade it purely on that simple basis - "trade what you see"?

God I wish I were doing this for a living instead of wage slaving

 

[tradesmart]

it seemed to me a perfect case of repeated lower highs/lower lows

Yes, a sure symptom of descent, and short entries could have been taken at the tops of the lower highs with some confidence...RSI was very weak...

But, just when the bears are sharpening their claws at the H&S prospects and having noted the trendline break; yet another falling wedge triangle appears, and often they break to the upside…….

We’re also in the vicinity of the 38.2% retracement of the big move up which can give support..

The futs are up 25ish on last nights close, and if the data at 13.30 is half decent, maybe the exchange MM’s might be tempted to organise a flash rally to take out some short stops…

Pure speculation for now, but that’s the way they often do it….

(And then when everyone is completely disorientated – the right shoulder performs with a vengeance.. :cheesy: )

edit - 3min chart attached - can lower highs/lower lows = small bull flag...?

later - General Motors (GM) lowered its earnings outlook for the first quarter and full year Wednesday to reflect weak sales and production volumes in North America...

And the futs tank 40 points......moving target or what.....?...

 

[ChartMan]

So 730 got hit pre market... no hope but down...H&S delivered and CCI/RSI went O/S to get there, followed by PD recovery.

 

[ChartMan]

Easy short off the bear flag, and a relatively easy exit off 32/T2 fail/ PD, but hard to catch the rest of the day....

 

[rav700]

Quadruple Witching please explaing the effects on the market for tommorows

Quadruple Witching this coming Friday - broomsticks at the ready.....!......

the effects on the market for tommorow as I trade binaries on the dow jones

 

[frugi]

There is usually above average volatility on this once per quarter event. Often a sharp move in one direction then an equally sharp reversal in the other. Up then down tomorrow? Who knows? Be careful out there either way.

 

[rav700]

thank you very much for your help frugi

There is usually above average volatility on this once per quarter event. Often a sharp move in one direction then an equally sharp reversal in the other. Up then down tomorrow? Who knows? Be careful out there either way.

So basically stay away from the market tommorow I guess right

 

[ChartMan]

PD now set at 2 days and a target of 700, if it were not for witching....

 

[ChartMan]

A day of indecision, waiting for tomorrow to pass, perhaps?

 

[tradesmart]

Am I seeing double......?!......

Must be the Benedictine......

(if it's good enough for a trading guru, it's good enough for me....... )

 

[frugi]

There is usually above average volatility on this once per quarter event. Often a sharp move in one direction then an equally sharp reversal in the other. Up then down tomorrow? Who knows? Be careful out there either way.

Oh okay then - down then up Don't you just love those option writers LOL

Gap fill next around the 10770s (Jun) next week or am I being wildly optimistic?
Computer says no ... (as in yes it will)

 

[tradesmart]

Gap fill next around the 10770s (Jun) next week or am I being wildly optimistic?
Computer says no ... (as in yes it will)

Computer says yes........!!!!!!!
(Take it from head Bull.......... )

ps - the price action today corroborated the lower downtrend channel line.....

top channel line at 750ish corresponds with gap fill level.........

will it become a big bull flag......?......time will tell....

 

[User]

Head bear agrees.

The potential for 10700 could come on Monday with further gains possible next week.