Dow Intraday charts 21/Mar - 24/Mar


Legendary member
5,580 46
New week and last week , for a while.... I find myself overloaded with new ventures and family problems that are taking all my time and energies. It has meant over the last few weeks that doing the Dow reports has become a real chore, instead of the pleasure that it always used to be.This tells me it's time to take a break. You will still be in good hands on the "where is the dow going in 2005" thread. I've not even had time to follow that thread properly, and the little that I have read was very good......
Let's see what pops up for Easter.... :cheesy:


Well-known member
494 42
Thanks for your efforts; you deserve a break. Your postings have been a tremendous source of help and inspiration to myself and others over the past few years.
IMHO your main objective of helping to steer potential traders around the major hazards of trading has been well achieved. Thanks to your tireless contributions I'm sure many of us have made great progress and at the very least have lived to fight another day.
I hope you get your family problems sorted out and may I wish you the best of luck with your new ventures.

Best Regards,


Experienced member
1,286 22
Have a good break CM and I hope that you have time later to resume the tuition…

As mentioned previously; I have certainly benefited as I am sure many other traders have……


Chart attached:- despite today’s falls, the lower trendline has held and PD is still building up on RSI/CCI supporting the current bounce……

How far will it get….?……the target is still the top trendline above 700 imho….…

But a lot will depend on market reaction to the FED’s rates statement at around 19.15gmt tomorrow……

Alan is capable of seriously tanking the market…… a “measured” manner….. :confused:

(200 points down is nothing to him...... :cheesy: )


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Legendary member
5,580 46
3 day PD now set in and confirmation will be given by way of that bear flag failing, or otherwise, at just over 600.


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Legendary member
5,580 46
I min chart....closing on 64 with room to move up....


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Legendary member
5,580 46
Clear as a bell, the early warning in the failure of the third peak failing to make its resistance line, followed by the mother of all drops.....well, 130 straight off ....


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Experienced member
1,193 68
Seventh increase since June comes as expected, with a tiny change in wording that could have big impact. Wall Street is spooked.

By MSN Money news services

The Federal Reserve boosted its key short-term interest rates Tuesday and signaled it would be more aggressive in using rates to stem inflation. You can expect the effects of this signal in the months ahead as rates on business, home and consumer loans start to move higher.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its federal funds rate 0.25% to 2.75%. It was the seventh rate increase since June 2004. The Fed also raised its discount rate from 3.5% to 3.75%.

More important was the language of the statement issued with the rate increase. The Fed stayed with its intention to raise rates at a "measured" pace. But the committee said "Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident." But the Fed said higher energy prices, however, have "not notably fed through to core consumer prices."Banks and insurers
check your credit.
So should you.

Read the Fed statement.

Bond traders immediately sold Treasurys, and stocks fell on the news as well. The Dow, up 43 points at the time of the announcement, dipped as much as 140 points afterward, finishing the day far into the red. (Read more about the day's trading in Market Dispatches.)

Some mortgage experts predicted mortgage rates, now at about 6%, would jump to 6.5% or 7% by year-end.

Taking aim at inflation
As the stock market and economy reeled from the effects of the 2000 tech bust, the Fed tried to shore up the economy with 13 rate cuts between January 2001 and June 2003, bringing the fed funds rate down to 1%. Last year, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and others signaled that the central bank believed rates were too low and started to move them up. The key to the moves was the idea that rates would be boosted at a relatively relaxed rate (a "measured pace") because inflation wasn't really a problem.

Lately, inflation has begun to look like a problem. Crude oil prices have jumped more than 30% this year, and gasoline prices are up something more than 13.2%. At the same time, there have been noticeable increases for a number of commodities including, grains, iron, steel, copper and coffee. Meanwhile, home price appreciation has taken off, leaving many critics to fear the Fed's aggressive moves to cut rates have created a housing bubble.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said today that its Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% in February, compared to a 0.3% increase in January. Economists were expecting the PPI would climb 0.2%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PPI rose 0.1% last month, up from a 0.8% increase the month before and in line with expectations.

Federal funds rate changes since June 2004
Date New rate Old rate Change (in basis points*)
March 22, 2005 2.75 2.5 25
Feb. 2, 2005 2.5 2.25 25
Dec. 14, 2004 2.25 2 25
Nov. 10, 2004 2 1.75 25
Sept. 21, 2004 1.75 1.5 25
Aug. 10, 2004 1.5 1.25 25
June 30, 2004 1.25 1% 25

* One basis point is 1 one hundredth of a percent. Source: Federal Reserve.

Gasoline prices saw the biggest price jump, rising 5.2%, while heating oil prices shot up 3.8%.

Since the Fed started raising rates last year, there has been what Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan called "a conundrum" at a Feb. 16 Senate hearing. Short-term rates were moving higher right in step with the Fed. But longer-term rates were not moving higher. Mortgage rates were either stable or falling. Greenspan suggested in his official text for a Congressional hearing (but not in the hearing itself) that the phenomenon might be "a short-term aberration."

And bond yields started moving higher, pushing mortgage rates with them. The rate on a 30-year mortgage, according to has jumped from about 5.1% in February to 5.5% now.


Active member
180 1
CM - best wishes for the time being and hope to see you up and running on the boards soon.

I received a message yesterday from a poster asking what I was up to. The answer is still trading and doing OK (touch wood). I haven't been posting my trades because I have been following a slightly different approach and trading the mini-Russell and mini-S&P over the past month. It is a paid-for approach I was introduced to by some traders in the US (I'm always curious to look at different ideas) and because it is not mine and because I am really still testing it out I do feel so comfortable posting the charts or trades. Having said that, it is nothing radically different from what I was doing before, just with a few loose ends tied up. I've found the ranges and lack of direction tough the past couple of weeks but hope we might at last be breaking free.

I hope posters to this thread continue to develop successfully and I will be dropping into T2W increasingly again in the near future. Special thanks to ChartMan for guidance and keeping this thread going so long. The discipline of having to post my trades and rationale everyday for most of the past six months or so has made a very beneficial impact on my journey as a wannabe full time trader.
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