Clown's 2007 outlook is work in progress

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Ach zeg maar niets meer.....

From the Analysis point of view the paradox is, less is more and more is less however the AEX fails to do both so within the given trending boundaries short term trading is a blast providing you take the money and run. Or use so called “premieslurpers” with “hekkies” just waiting for the things to come without any risk.

The Long Term calculation exercises for a wave 4 and the 2007 outlook reference (see above posts) are still valid. The wave internals have changed and are presently in favor of an A or W at 479,49 and a B or X at 521,21 awaiting confirmation or cancellation due shortly.

And just as one gets really bored the exciting TA conditions appear in the charts, the more generates the dark red potential again. However the AEX has arrived just above the bear and bull crossing which opens the door to the next level which is the 531 area so the next couple of trading days are going to tell us if the 521 level sticks (even slightly higher than the 521,21) or if we are moving to the next level.

In Yank’s Land the DJIA has something with the 13350 area so have fun I would say.


@Pacito
Right now the TA conditions are pointing at a seriously dark red scenario which is even more red than the Alle Mannuh nie lulluh maar… UPG scenario. The capturing of the 521 level and moving on to the next just changes that and still will create a dark red scenario in between the above mentioned two also depending on the involved elapsed time. One of the first references is what the Yank’s will do at the 13350 level this evening.
 
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Pacito

Active member
186 2
Is it a rollercoaster, or isn't it? In two days from 503 to 518. Al that in a way that would suit a drunken driver. Not that I'm complaining. It all came to timing. What's next? RSI is still in bear territory. The bullrun today was too fast to comply with time. So I see a retreat tommorow. 515 would be normal, but in the exagerating state we are it could well be 512 again. The only thing that shouldn't happen is breaking 521. In that case I have to reconsider again.
Pacito

PS Clown. Simple question, simple answer: the yanks didn't do anything at the 13350 level. They didn't even come near. So I suppose they remain also in negative territory.
 
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The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Week 37.

The AEX last week arrived at the next Fibonacci retracement level and like the previous one after some hesitation the festivity of Technical Analysis Recognition once again was complete. And back to business as usual which means the resistance levels within the 531,75 KISS trend process or if you can adapt the more sophisticated trend identification methods. Friday the first bear treasure room was entered again by crossing the 522 area downwards the second bear treasure room entering the last time woke up the FED to do something causing the recent spectacular effects. The second treasure room entrance now is somewhere around 492 whereas the present Technical Analysis results point to a price target in that second treasure room below the previous low.

First things first and that’s the 531,75 trend which has to continue by remaining within the resistance boundaries on the Short Term charts which on Monday are 523,50 – 526 the related down target/support in the same chart is 511,50. Mind you the bull scenario is not completely vanished since the Friday low might very well be labeled the fourth wave of a TripleZigZagC pattern providing a 546 target for the fifth wave. The three things to watch are: a) the trend continuation b) the second wave level c) the actual wave internals.

The Astro Analysis people had their party as well since September 7th shows a hit for Rule number 2 from Mr. G. Bayer his collection of trading rules. Not particularly my favorite as his Rules appear quite frequently and I have not yet found the solid prove that result is what it should be. In fact the high frequency of signaling is my main objective so given the nature of how those signals are generated I am convinced it’s just a part of what one should be looking for. Anyway fun it was/is.

The GJN taught trending methodology tells you the AEX is trending negatively and that’s the reason Mr. Nikken is more interested in finding old school patterns close to the resistance area’s. If you care to perform some quick and dirty inter-market analysis you find that the main indices in Yanks Land are trending positive using the very same methodology, and even our German neighbors main index the DAX is trending positively. So my teaser question is, has the AEX become the world leading index? LOL.

So I better use my own trend identification process which tells me the DJIA crossed it’s primary descending 14021 trend line last Friday and will be looking for support/pause just above the 13000. In a perfect world back testing resistance and than moving on downwards in line with the Technical Analysis New School target. When the Yanks are there the analysis excitement starts, at this point in time there are too many options to speculate given the whole picture.

Have fun trading to WIN.
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
update zoekplaatje

Facts and conditions.
 

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Blinker

Member
76 2
Tellen?

A few day's ago I posted my counting on a dutch forum. Somebody with a red nose and orange hair asked me about the fourth wave due to the first one. Could I be wrong? Well I did some homework and fabricated an other one. This one fits better in the overall picture.

Please give me some comment.....

Success,

Blinker
 

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Pacito

Active member
186 2
Timing

Blinker, nice work. It seems familiar, especially the C and 5 in the right lower corner.
The only thing that's still a question is the timing. Clown can surely inform you for the very short term.
Pacito
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
een twe drie vier.... hoedje van

Blinker,

The AEX from 549,02 until 537,76 at this point in time has the highest score when referenced towards an ideal model as a completed impulsive wave pattern called Extension3C. This would implicitly mean you are looking for a second wave at the relevant retracement levels. From the projected pattern perspective this second wave qualifies time wise at the day high yesterday which from a traders perspective offers you an interesting setup.

Have fun trading to WIN.
 

Blinker

Member
76 2
En als het hoedje dan niet past...

Dear Pacito and Clown,

Thank you for your reply. First of all I think timing is essential for trading, but the place in time is something else. A wave 5 is more or less as long (in time) as the first one. The second and fourth are the difficult one's. Never the same! Is it an normal flat, or a combination of double and triple threes? These are the hardest one's......

This extension 3C You see as wave 1? Because I thought something different. We are in the fourth wave (see picture)
We share the same conclusion... the AEX haven't found the bottom yet.....

Success....
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Week 41.

For a number of reasons including using different techniques I do not agree with the analyst view that would implicate the end of the economic society as we currently have. The primary reason for that dramatic view is based on an Impulse wave count for the 563,98 – 479,49 fractal, in order to get some feel for where the serious Bear people are coming from I have attached an Elliott Wave count on the DJIA datafile (starting in 1897 until last Friday), which I by the way, at least not at this stage, can’t qualify as best scoring scenario. Just to get some respect for the things the human race has accomplished the last hundred years or so and more specifically the post WOII generation.

The wave count 563,98 – 479,49 has a corrective structure and the best scoring wave pattern is called TripleZigZagC and since this pattern has five corrective waves I can imagine the alleged impulsive character found by people why only look at it from a distance without utilizing the power of the Elliott Wave Principle. The more interesting part is the beyond 479,49 bit and to start with the more exciting part the vary same applies to this wave analysis. At a first glance one might find an impulsive wave structure, also since one would expect it at there when labeling 563,98 as the third wave and 479,49 as the fourth wave in the wave starting at 217,80. In order for this wave part to be a fifth wave it will have to be impulsive.

The Elliott Wave Principle is founded on Rules and Guidelines and there is for instance no rule which tells you that a second wave is not allowed to retrace 80% of the first wave in an impulsive wave pattern. For corrective wave patterns there are Rules and Guidelines for a number of different wave pattern families you can find in the literature. A corrective second wave might retrace 100% or even substantially more in a number of wave pattern options. And when trading one has a completely different angle since the P is dominating everything you do. A reservation will have to be made here I think since markets today are operating a bit different just look at what the FED caused in August. What I am considering is that even though the actual pattern is corrective (you can see a three stroke in your own chart) one should perhaps discard that since it was externally forced upon the market.

So given the fact that the wave structure beyond 479,49 is corrective I utilized each and every pause in that move and hit the exit including the most recent one last week. Officially the last one has not yet violated the 80% boundary so I might have an other go at it next week when a new entry is triggered. When we look at the wave structure and want to stick a pattern to the part beyond 479,49 a DoubleZigZagC pattern comes close even though both price and time have run out a bit. The next pattern possibility is probably going to be a TrippleZigZagC pattern although at this point in time the suspected fourth wave has factual challenges.

The GJN taught trending methodology modus remains negative and the Technical Analysis New School already provided it’s price target. However it must be mentioned that the August/September correction also provided a number of Bull targets so from an Analysts point of view the sequence of events is going to be the differentiator. The K.I.S.S. trending methodology continues to show higher highs and lows although this is not going to last. If you recall the first rule in the Clowns Trading Almanac you understand why I am looking at what trading positions. It’s not just sticking to a view no matter what happens it’s merely the risk/reward based getting those P’s in until proven otherwise.

The Astro Finance Analysis track I am currently pursuing does include the major market moves however the time indication fades a bit and I am still figuring out how to more accurately implement this. It looks like there is a level of delay involved but this is something I will have to study a bit further before concluding. October was/is a low in the AFA and if the decline we have seen in August/September has been completed the next high is January 2008. Needless to say what if not.


Have fun trading to WIN.
 

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The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Week 47.

The festivity of Technical Analysis New School Recognition once again is complete as the AEX not only delivers in accordance with it’s trending operating modus the AEX also delivered as the leading trending index as well since Yanks Land followed. The three main “reading” arguments to look for a turn below the 563,98 were: a) negatively trending modus according to the GJN trending methodology b) moving within the page 58 definition c) the nature of the wave fractals is corrective rather than impulsive. At this point in time my favorite EWP scenario has TripleZigZagC patterns that form the two waves starting at 563,98 so the third wave is currently running from 559,43. The AEX has arrived in the 500 area and the favorite indicator is pointing OverSold which basically invites Technical Analysts to look for bottom signaling.

Last week the favorite indicator tricked the old school TA by showing PD on Thursday and taking it out on Friday a clear signal for the new school TA people. Just to provide you a feel for how much lower the AEX might close on Monday based on the favorite indicator history; 495,78 ; 494,70 ; 493,16. Needless to point out that intraday there is even more low potential so you will have some indication. A higher close on Monday (or later) would even generate considerably lower values compared to the above three. Simply use the K.I.S.S. methodology to define your trending modus if you are not yet practicing Technical Analysis new school but do it yourself in a disciplined manner, the “Gassies” of this world showed you how to not do it. The trend is your friend and implicitly tells you how to value resistance and support levels.

In week 45 the AEX left the MLT upwards trending area and last week (46) the weeks high could be considered as a pullback so the multi million dollar question is, is this a classic UPG move. Mind you the previous time the AEX tried to get out of this MLT trending area the FED interfered. If we consult the LT upwards trending area we find additional downside potential. These trending area’s are homemade in the Circus so you will not find them anywhere else, to give you an idea I picture the more traditional way of channeling. The EWP offers some guidance of position/direction by channeling wave label degrees in order to visualize similar to what old school TA does. On the attachment you find two levels; the white shows you that a wave four on 479,49 is becoming critical and the yellow shows you downside potential. The old school TA people use a large number of lines and change them when they have become obsolete by the actual movements without providing the complete overall picture. So here it is, scares the hell out your bull scenario, no worries mate eat your soup hotel warm.

The present outlook from 563,98 prefers a third wave down starting at 559,43 and looking at that bit again a third wave which has probably not yet been completed. Given the fractal structure I favor a corrective scenario which implicates one will have to reference the previous wave label for target practice. There is no such thing like the Holy Grail to tell you what exactly is going to happen exactly when, so in order to make money trading/investing you will have to combine a number of techniques to generate a collection of criteria. This offers you a number of alternatives you can simply combine to obtain a roadmap to profitable trading so I hereby wrap up this 2007 thread.

Have fun trading to WIN.
 

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Visser

Newbie
1 0
Dear Clown,

After a long time of reading your thread, my first post. Ill first introduce myself, I am a first-year econometrics student, with a huge interest in the financial markets. I have been reading your updates for several months and I am trying to understand them, although that isn't really that easy all the times. I am also studying 'the famous book with page 58' at the moment. Now, i can remember from long ago you have a book-list somewhere about 'what to read', but i can't find it anymore and because I would like to advance in TA, i would like to ask if you still have it somewhere on your computer. Any tips or whatsoever are welcome!

Thanks in advance!
 

amissa

Newbie
4 0
Dear Clown,

After a long time of reading your thread, my first post. Ill first introduce myself, I am a first-year econometrics student, with a huge interest in the financial markets. I have been reading your updates for several months and I am trying to understand them, although that isn't really that easy all the times. I am also studying 'the famous book with page 58' at the moment. Now, i can remember from long ago you have a book-list somewhere about 'what to read', but i can't find it anymore and because I would like to advance in TA, i would like to ask if you still have it somewhere on your computer. Any tips or whatsoever are welcome!

Thanks in advance!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=263208#post263208
 
 
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