Clown's Weekly 29.

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
This weeks update is in the Queens English as a courtesy to the “few” non Dutch readers on this forum.

The weekly update has a top down approach and therefore begins with a long term overview starting with the Elliott Wave Analysis using a data feed of over 30 years EOD data having a closer look at the last (current) wave up from 217,80 in march 2003. For the last months we are looking at the preferred wave pattern called TripleZigZagC with a third wave (Y) on 478,44 (April top) and a fourth wave (X) on 409,56 (June low) leaving us today in the fifth wave up. I have to express serious doubt about this scenario not so much of influence for the short\medium term roadmap but a little bit further down the road. In all honestly I have to admit that it is not so much the Elliott Wave Analysis that provides me with these thoughts but the other used techniques. To complete the Elliott Wave long term picture the route is up only not as much as the current preferred wave count might indicate, I am looking for a wave Y that is being place a bit higher. Wave Y has met its first target at 455,86 and after setting a high at 478,44 took quite a dive to 409,56. The next target for wave Y is 516,32 and remember this second target because this level is coming from other techniques as well. (my first postings at this forum)

Let’s have a closer look at the sub-wave (of the above wave five) we find a first wave 409,56-444,38 and note that 444 is the 50% retracement level of 478,44-409,56 which according to Mr. Gann his findings is by far the most important level and last day’s movement showed him right again let us focus next on the 426 level which is the 50% level of 409,56-444,38 and will play its roll the next couple of day’s. From an Elliott wave point of view a second wave to the above mentioned first and if we look at the time relationship it becomes clear that the second wave should not run much longer because on the 20th it is as long as the first wave and that is not typical for a second wave. To complete the whole picture here, Yes Sir it might result in a different wave count.

Some of the Cycle Analyst’s are stressing on the four years cycle which has come to unfold any day now since they are warning us for over a year. What they in general do is base their calculations on the DJIA but look at the differences here in our own index the AEX (even the Brits went along with us) the low was not in October 2002 it was march 2003. If one has knowledge of the work of Mr. Benner the year 2003 has a completely different meaning it is almost magic so I come to one of my favorite adagia “Think out of the box”.

One of the greater masterpieces of Mr. Gann was the matching techniques of time and price in a number of different forms which for obvious reasons I can not share in detail simply because a simple Dutch Clown does not quite fully understand (yet?) the masters work as well and I had to even go beyond the instructions I have found in the liturature. The 478,44 with some creative thinking could be matched to an important top in may in this technique but baring in mind that the next date is September 30 brings a new dish on the table.

Intraday the movements will be watched on an hourly graph with Gann Fan’s, RSI and stuff so it becomes crystal clear when the picture changes. The Gann Fan’s, if scaled correctly, provide excellent trading signals and enable me to trade to win for quite some time now although improvements are in process. If one is expecting that Technical Analysis and the advanced Technical Analysis is providing a crystal clear picture of how markets move I have to say you are in for a huge disappointment. In my view it is however possible to condition the market movements isolate a number of high probability opportunities in order to make solid consistent profits trading.

The Astronomy aspects I used to provide are put into a calendar and I have made a screen print so you can read this weeks trading set-ups. For the non Dutch readers I did not translate all bits so: OK is open buy OV open sell SK is close buy SV close sell. The Astro aspects occur at exact moments but what I have done is allow a tolerance of a couple of day’s and matched my database with 30 years or so AEX EOD data. Each set-up had either Rew or Risk attached to it; meaning that Reward or Risk has been optimized result wise. The first percentage is the amount of positive results (xxomxx grootste: win % verlies %) first xx is the number of positive results the second the number of negative results grootste means largest win % is clear and verlies means loss. I am still looking for a suitable format to use the data, the calendar form might be an improvement tough leave the interpretation of the hard facts to individual judgments. Use the facts flexible and bare in mind that all the banking phrases like past performance is no indication for future performance are a fact of life.

For cross check purposes I have a quick look at the DJIA although the quality of the data feed is not the same level I have realized in the AEX. The intraday data misses too much Ticks so intraday swings are missed and even a number of day highs and/or lows differ. It is however as stated an indication of direction which will not be that much different from the AEX. The Elliott Wave Analysis 30 year overview has a preference for a wave (1:) starting at 7197 upwards, which has a first sub wave at 10984 (1:1) and since then is in wave two(1:2). This second wave has its first wave on 10000 (1:2:A) and second on 11670 (1:2:B) so we currently have wave 3 down (1:2:C). What might be of interest now would be answers to questions like is 11670 it for now and how far down might the present wave down run.

So we will look in a bit more detail to the wave pattern from 11670 which is the above 1:2:C which has to be placed before the next wave labels. It might not surprise you that a first wave will be found at 10699 and a second at 11256 so we currently have wave three down. The fun part starts with combining the preferred wave pattern with Gann Fan’s and TA indicator stuff. A first pause was found right there where the first wave was placed and this again is something that can be found in several techniques. We continue our journey into even deeper sub waves by having a closer look at that third wave starting at 11256 is this fun or what. Again we find a first wave at 11066 and a second wave at 11174 so again a third wave down. This third wave has met already targets 11030, 10985 and 10870 leaving open just the last at 10686. Just one level deeper we find waves: 11028 1; 11151 2; 10701 3; and 10759 4; so if correct the last one 5 down with target 10618 because it relates to wave 1.

You will have to realize that we are in deep down the waves that things will change intraday for instance if the above wave 4 will be taken out Monday. Experienced Elliot Wave Analysts will immediately be able to redirect and place critical levels where a wave 4 can’t be a wave 4 anymore and depending on the added index data adjust wave counts. I will not monitor in such detail because I make my living trading futures on the AEX index.

For intraday cross check purposes I have compiled an hourly data file (DJIA) and did some calculations on the scaling but it is in the very early stages so please bare in mind this when reviewing the graph. The Friday close is slightly above the trending downwards Gann Fan line with a definitely oversold RSI, both indications that an end to the present wave down might be nearby.

Groet en S6 remember Trade to Win.

Disclaimer:
All the above information is for educational purposes only.
 

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gogo27

Junior member
37 0
Mr. Clown

Nice try, hope you will find an answer to your quest...I'm afraid you will end up with the DJIA only... :eek:
I'm already missing the AEX pictures... but as you said: ' for educational purposes only ! "...

Have a nice day...

Gogo
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Maandag 17 juli 2006.

At the present AEX level we have a Postitive Reversal in about 3 minutes we will have it in official... than we might have confirmation with divergence.... so this morning looks alright to me... the only thing that's a bit of a worry is the level of august FTI's.

I. 10.00u
Yes we have a Positive Reversal in... calculated target is 444,84 now we are going to look for confirmation.... nice work...

II, 11.00u+
No confirmation yet but new calculation Positive Reversal target is 442.28... looking better now since we have found support see both Intraday and EOD graph.... once confirmation we will be adding safety line in for stopp-loss purposes (I hate that word).....

III. 12.00u+ see graph 3
Well alright now we are talking ....

IV 13.00u+ see graph 4
TA and flags but when do they become a wedge or even a triangle let me give you an other one in the EOD graph is developping an outside day.... what about that my friend... okay we are not closed yet.... in the mean time we look at confirmation that the trend change is in or the wave down has been completed.... the focus will be on the trend line in the intraday graph... testing it and moving uo there after would be nice for a trading signal.... also look at the tendline in the RSI for help.....

It's a lovely day....
 

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gogo27

Junior member
37 0
The Dutch Clown said:
At the present AEX level we have a Postitive Reversal in about 3 minutes we have it is official... than we might have confirmation with divergence.... so this morning looks alright to me... the only thing that's a bit of a worry is the level of august FTI's.

I. 10.00u
Yes we have a Positive Reversal in... calculated target is 444,84 now we are going to look for confirmation.... nice work...


Nice work indeed!
Should we not wait for an intraday confirmation by the DJIA?

And wait a few more hours ?
 

gogo27

Junior member
37 0
Price and time... not so easy...struggling...I go for a walk and wait for this afternoon...
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
gogo27 said:
Price and time... not so easy...struggling...I go for a walk and wait for this afternoon...

Confirmation is not in yet, there are however indications fi found in the EOD graph... but relax man the weather is fine... and let's be realistic here a few points less profit won't kill you... woh what do I see now,, as I type.... woh again... first indication in about 14 minutes....
 

gogo27

Junior member
37 0
Nice walk on the beach...

What do I see? Classical TA gives me a flag...
Moneymanagement rules applied: I remain on the sideline... Time for apero...
 

manubiae

Junior member
21 0
The Dutch Clown said:
Confirmation is not in yet, there are however indications fi found in the EOD graph... but relax man the weather is fine... and let's be realistic here a few points less profit won't kill you... woh what do I see now,, as I type.... woh again... first indication in about 14 minutes....


Een slot boven de 428( ff minder) zou ideaal zijn ?
 

gogo27

Junior member
37 0
The Dutch Clown said:
Confirmation is not in yet, there are however indications fi found in the EOD graph... but relax man the weather is fine... and let's be realistic here a few points less profit won't kill you... woh what do I see now,, as I type.... woh again... first indication in about 14 minutes....


That it ! That it! Up we go... Nice day today mate....

Teatime

Lovely

Gr.

Gogo
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Beste manubiae,

Het gaat niet zo zeer om dat level het gaat erom dat de trendlijn bevestigd wordt... met name daar waar ze kruisen... let op want de DJIA kan nog steeds (zojuist) een golf 4 hebben gemaakt met een 5 omlaag er nog overheen?! zie post 1.... het mooiste wat ons AEX dan kan gebeuren is positieve divergentie op de bestaande Postive Reversal signaal....

Wees reel vanaf deze stand maakt het niet zoveel uit als de target van de reversal 442,28 is.... uiteraard mogelijk meer maar dit is conform de regels.... later gaan we de golven ontleden... het bodem vissen is leuk maar het gaat om een bevestiging van de trend.... op een relatief veilige manier 10+ punten pakken met een karrenvracht aan fti's... that's the name of the game...

Groet.

PS thee???? Gogo....Tea??? it's time to drink down a nice cool bottle of Lambrusco....
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Dinsdag 18 juli 2006.

If taking us back to post 1 the wave 409,56-444,38 can be seen as a first wave and the second wave would be in last Friday or early on Monday given the time relationship well what can I say, only that the 20th still has to be up there. Reason, the Yanks did let us down by not showing any form of a decision leaving us for now with a preferred scenario wave 4 on day high yesterday 10802 and wave 5 down on its way which now has a target of >10661 because wave 4 has been placed higher than previous.

The AEX yesterday scored two Positive Reversal signals the first two hours of trading for obvious reasons (please take a moment and read the literature) the last one counts and gives us calculated target of 442,28. Knowing this is like one of the best things in trading and now we are going to find an entry point which will provide us with as much index points at a minimum risk.

Mind I point my finger to the Trading Set-up’s from the Astro data in the attached calendar in post 1 again. Fun isn’t it, it’s like a puzzle and to all the idiots who spell out there guts telling us that Technical Analysis doesn’t work I do say show me yours… here is mine….. For the fun of it I picked up some pocket money intraday scalping the real money however is in the above trading set-up.

S6 and remember Trade to Win.

I. 10.30u graph 1

Well what can I say, there are a few idiots that call me arrogant and some other names, they are what they are and lose money in their efforts without learning anything. That's what I call stupid. In the attached graph you can see where I picked up some money this morning and where I will be playing for some more.
 

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TheBramble

Legendary member
8,394 1,170
I'm fascinated with the logic (and the effort) DC is putting into this.

I don't trade the AEX, but did run it through a very cursory analysis.

From a very short term perspective, I would have had an upside first target of 428.91 from the low of 422.71 at 09:35 (BST) yesterday. It just fell short of that at 14:45 (BST) with a high of 428.55.

On a slightly longer view the possible move up to 452.12 has IMHO been missed and sub-400 is more likely than a move above 445. If it breaks below 410 and this proves to be new resistance, it's going to be very significant for the downside. But it's all probabilities and you guys obviously have a great deal of experience with this instrument.

It seems you're looking for a very specific target (442.28) and I'd be delighted for your analysis to get you close to that, but short to medium term, I'd be looking for a break below 420 to indicate interest in a potential short position.

Interesting stuff.
 

The Dutch Clown

Established member
592 11
Thank you Mr Bramble,

The downside view I fully understand from where typically anybody is coming from (with all due respect I started there as well) using available tools in the various forms. In the above first post I remind the first post here at this forum with an attached EOD graph showing a Reversal signal with the calculated target. I can assure you that I am not blind and deaf to the downside but look at it from a different perspective since the predicting indicators tell me so. And the proof of the pudding is of cause in the eating so I will be looking for confirmation each and every step of the way. At this stage I have to tell you that I have already eaten quite a bit of pudding and realize that that has been my eating although a huge number of Dutchmen did the same without knowing that they had pudding last year.

The calculated target can be seen as is and given the EOD picture easily be over scored.. In the past someone over and over again told me and told me again: the index is not going to perform in a straight line remember !? And an other issue is that an absolute low is not always the low in trend and calculation.

In the mean time I make money playing some scalps and will update the July 18th post soon with a graph so you can see how I have made it and when I will be making more. The presented graphs with a few stupid colored lines might seem to good to be true, I can insure you it is but there is some work involved getting those lines.

Lovely day... trade to win only..
 

cold or warm

Guest
58 0
DDC [ Dear Dutch Clown :)]

Let me guess, the crossover green and white at 424 = entry, right? Together with the test from the RSI positive reversal line .... Bingo !

Cold or warm.

Bye the way, too warm to be inside so up to a nice place with nice company.
 
 
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