Clown's Weekly 34.

[The Dutch Clown]

Als u er maar plezier in heeft da's al gewonnen

Blinker,

The used timeframes are personal and you should use the ones that fit your own trading
activity best. It’s somewhat difficult/impossible for me to guess what level of timeframes and
techniques you can handle simultaneously. My message is simply try as many as you can
manage and work with the ones that suite your trading behavior.

There is no technique or single timeframe that works each and every time you trade to win but
if you dynamically combine the lot you can come pretty close. You just need to do a bit of
hard work in order to get a grip on things it is in fact a full time job and not a hobby so act
accordingly.

Also remember that Analyzing is something completely different than Trading and for
Trading you should use an other Analyzing angle to get the Trades to Win. If your assumption
is that the market will travel a specific route also track the opposite route and focus on the
actual facts not the hopes, expectations, prayers, believes,

Have Fun.

 

[cold or warm]

your opinion

At first I want to apologise to the english reader, the next question for Dear Dutch Clown is in.........Dutch. It is about the Elliot Waves according to the dutch AEX index.

Heer Clown,

Het volgende verhaal las ik ergens. Sluit aan op mijn vraag van deze week hoe we staan met de E- waves. Vandaar nogmaals wat uw opinie is over het onderstaande.

mvg KvKd



Het korte termijn plaatje:

Na de eerdere doorbraak van de 490 punten moest de AEX steun rond de 478 punten er afgelopen vrijdag op slotbasis ook aan geloven. Dit ging gepaard met donderend geraas: het raken van de vele stop-losses zorgde voor een sell-off en de markt kwam in luttele minuten 2% naar beneden om pas steun te vinden rond de 470 punten.
Het technische plaatje is hiermee verder verzwakt en dat werd vandaag bevestigd vanwege de terugtest van de 478 punten. De beren stonden direct klaar om de stieren weer terug te dringen.
Een klassieke beweging vanuit de technische analyse....

Hoe nu verder?
Lees hieronder snel verder voor het laatste voorkeursscenario voor deze week.

Scenario A:

Golf 5 lijkt te zijn getopt op 498,45 punten.
De volledige opwaartse impuls kan afgesloten zijn, waarna de huidige daling in werking trad als eerste beweging van een nieuwe impuls: Golf 1 neerwaarts kan daarom een feit zijn vanaf de top op 498,45.

Deze eerste golf kan reeds geplaatst zijn, waarmee we deze week golf 2 (correctie) in werking zagen treden.
Gezien de seizoensmatige bewegingen (eindejaarsrally of window dressing sterkte) verwacht ik nog wel een stukje opleving in december.

De sterkste neerwaartse beweging vervolgens in golf 3 is de beweging die we als speculant/belegger graag willen meepakken....

Scenario B:

Dit scenario met nog een kans op een hogere top in een golf 5 is in de afgelopen week nog minder waarschijnlijk geworden, maar op slotbasis werd de belangrijke 472/473 nog niet doorbroken. Er is daarom nog een minimaal kansje..., maar ik geef Scenario A nu absoluut de voorkeur: de top is in mijn beleving reeds geplaatst.

Grote kans dat we binnen afzienbare tijd de zone 450-465 op gaan zoeken.



Conclusie week 49:

De top is in mijn beleving voor 99% zeker geplaatst op 498,45 punten. Golf 1 neerwaarts is actueel of geplaatst rond 470,50. Golf 2 (correctie) kan nu actueel zijn. De huidige opleving is seizoensmatig te verklaren en wellicht kan dit de vervolgdaling nog even tegenhouden. Hou rekening met verder afkalvende koersen in de komende weken/maanden.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Een hamburger van MD is niet zo lekker als eentje van BK

Cold or Warm,

Commenting other people’s work is not my cup of tea and I would like to stick to my own tea unless the subscription mob is involved. The piece you copied does look a bit too much like the stuff the “optie-boy’s “ did produce I used to read in the past and since it was so bad I bought and read some books on the Elliott patterns. More recent work I think is published at your brokers site and I never ever read it. You probably are reading it and if you have done so a bit longer I do not need to comment anything so back to the tea.

 

[cold or warm]

abbotje verkopers

Dear Dutch Clown,

No, I did not read further on that site from that man/vendor. I was more curious for your opinion about the fact or and if the wave 5 has been set or not. Remember you talked about this in the past and I am aware of the fact that you know a lot more about this as I do.

and I do not like hamburgers, only if they are home made. )

Regards

cold or warm

 

[Blinker]

Er gaat een belletje rinkelen

Dear Clown,

Of course, You sead it. Dum, dum...
I always look for answers, they are right under my noose. It's the thing I normally do also. On the longer time frames I sell options. For the shorter ones I buy some and trade futures. Sometimes I use the 1 min. chart and some other times the 3, 15 ....... You name it. Ok Thanks a lot!

Working on my parket I missed a big sign last friday (in a chart whit a fibb ratio minute). In the FTI there was a signal for 473.20 Guess what? It was precisely the bottom of the day. ****... I could have bought me a new parket of that signal. You're absolutely right. Scan all data and trade to win!

I have 1 other question. Do you have a suggestion for a good book which subscribes day trading for a living? (You can also reply by e-mail)

Have a nice day

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Het is weer genieten in het zonnetje

Cold or Warm,

Since the copied information is in fact from the “optie-boy’s” and they are in fact part of the subscription mob I will add the common sense. The unanswered question here is which wave five has been identified at 498,45, yes alright “v” from 409,56 and even the wave label above but that’s where the “boy’s” are leaving you completely in the unknown. The red 5 is the end of a wave which starts where ?! Forgetting that part it seems totally out of proportion to place a wave 1 at 470,54 assuming that the structure is impulsive rather than corrective. The 99% remark these fools allow themselves to make show absolutely no sign of any knowledge of the Elliott wave count and does in fact work in favor of the criticasters since the “boy’s” have been more wrong than right in the past. And their Analysis is so outrageous in the boundaries that it is impossible to use for trading anyway, well if you trade to win. Finally to blow the “boy’s” completely out of the water; what is the first thing anybody will learn about the Elliott wave structure, a five wave count is being followed by an other five wave count?!

Forgetting this completely and focus on what you have learned in the trending area as being taught by GJN, a trend is your friend as long as it is a trend and when it has changed you have a new friend. And this trend friend as though by GJN has not, I repeat, has not been changed for quite some time now. If you read my previous posts more specific the ones on the DJIA the picture is complete. For the AEX 498,45 the disturbance factor is the eur\dol so you will have to take that in account as well but again I have already covered this in the above posts as well.

In short 498,45-470,54 is history the future is related within the retracement levels of the previous movement and this set will in fact determines what you will be ending up in the future. Hence you might even notice a relevant level on your screen at Monday’s high. Is this all there is? Well no sir, so look at your traditional indicators for more specific insight information and learn to combine them into your personal trading roadmap. How for instance would you characterize the movement from 470,54 up if you look at the Stochastics, RSI or ADX/DMI. And if you use the GJN taught trending methodology on the similar timeframe as apposed to the presented timeframe in the daily column. And you might have noticed already that the current movement is best described on page 58.

As always the trades to win we want.

 

[cold or warm]

up town

Dear Dutch clown,

Let's never talk about these boys again. It is the best for our mood. :cheesy:

As you know, I was "up" since about a week now. And saw the signals stronger and stronger.
Together with the GJN methode, the book and the indicator (s) try to make trades to win.

And because you like the colours in my charts, a attachment on which i trade now.

Regards and enjoy.

Cold or warm.

 

[Blinker]

You're right. There's more to explore.

Ff een plaatje van mijn behang....

 

[The Dutch Clown]

het gebeurt gewoon onder uw neus hoor...

Pats that was a Brown present ..... now see what we are ending up with...

Vooruit dan ook moar enne ploatje d'r bie.... de groene stippenlijn da was het cadeautje van vandaag.....

 

[yubaba]

the discussion is very clarifying to me. especially the pictures. a new insight for the BrownBible. thnx and so go on

 

[Blinker]

Chapter 6

Dear Clown,

Remember when you place the fann, what she sead in chapter 6. Look at mine. It's al about balance....

Zal het voorbeeld onderaan ploatsen. Welterusten....

 

[cold or warm]

Eurostoxx

Dear Clown,

When I see this one, I am going to be very carefull.

Cold or Warm.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

he ho het lijkt wel pagina 58 verhip het is er weer eentje

Yep that's the bear one that needs to be tackled by the bulls.... turn in process and see where it will take us.... this is fun

 

[janebowles]

Yep that's the bear one that needs to be tackled by the bulls.... turn in process and see where it will take us.... this is fun

Hello! That needs to be tackled by the bulls?

That needs to tackle the bulls for a short while, so it seems to me.

 

[cold or warm]

even better

Dear Clown,

The picture is even better with stochastics included

Mvg

KvKd

 

[Pacito]

sHs?

Next few days the key to what follows.

Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Hello to you TOO

Hello! That needs to be tackled by the bulls?

That needs to tackle the bulls for a short while, so it seems to me.

Would you be so kind to explain what it is in fact you want to contribute?

 

[janebowles]

Would you be so kind to explain what it is in fact you want to contribute?

"want" is not exactly the right word here, since my posting is already several days, if not a week old.
So, what i wanted to contribute then was just: we're going probably down first, before we will go up again.
Is this more clear? Fine.

I wish you and your family a merry X-mass and all the best for the new year.

JB

 

[Blinker]

Weer es wat anders

For those who know.....

Success

 

[Pacito]

For those who know.....

Success

If I know I don't have to see it. If I don't know I have to solve a riddle. Please tell in the future what this is about, or at least edit the numbers and name with it in your thumbnail.

Pacito