Clown's Weekly 34.

[The Dutch Clown]

Natuurlijk een Fijne Kerst gewenst.

Like you Pacito, Blinker is trying to unfold the Composite so it should be something that would make you feel at home. Personally I feel that too much focus is on the Composite and it sort of functions as a distortion in respect of the issues that really make a difference. Probably the American way of selling something is applicable to the Composite and I resent that more than I foresee huge additional benefits.

You yourself focus on a PR you see in the EOD chart but simply refuse to see the more recent disproportional movement and even the NR. And where your PR – at least the one in the EOD chart – can not be properly validated the NR you overlook is validated properly. The ND in the charts of both AEX and DJIA and the different phase they are in, is an other consideration that has to be included as well.

In fact the hesitation today to move upwards can be explained by the very same NR and it’s stop-loss which serves as resistance. If I consult the KVKD 473,05 Trending Area it must be noted that the AEX left the area downwards yesterday and does not succeed to enter it up until now. You might also want to have a look at a Fast and Slow Stochastics for direction.

Is there nothing that indicates a more positive scenario? Well the GJN taught trending methodology is positive on all the relevant timeframes. And yes the Stochastics allows some upwards potential but I would say more topping than anything else. The DJIA seems to be presenting a bit more upwards potential and the multi million dollar question is: has the eur\dol completed the 2 of the 123 move? And if it did how fast will 3 become a factor? A new KVKD Trending Area downwards is not obvious yet since 497,40 and 496,91 (that is until now) are close in time and price leaving some topping potential touching the bottom of the 473,05 TA once again.

Given the time of the year the unexpected might be expected. So I will focus on creating the Christmas dinners, selecting the different courses, the wines that go with those, some French cheese to go with the wine and cigar in order to spend quality time with the family and friends. And since it has been an exceptionally stock market performance year for me trading anything goes.

Have Fun.

 

[cold or warm]

last call

Dear Dutch Clown,

My own KVKD system :cheesy: says it could be the last call before the books are closing for the Christmas holiday. Not sure until where it goes but maybe sidewards, but not upwards.
The chart tells why.

From this place, I wish you a very nice and quality Christmas Time. Enjoy the days with your loved ones. And as you wrote, it has been a nice year so time to spend with them. Turn off the comp and in the new year your are fit and ready for your hobby again.

It is a pleasure knowing you.

KVKD

 

[Pacito]

Clown, Blinker,
I wish you a very good and happy end of the year and an even better beginning of next year.
In an uptrend I try to focus on which indicators tell me that the trend is changing. Meanwhile I'm going with the flow. In a downtrend I'm focussing on the indicators telling me when the trend will change. I agree that the last part of Browns book makes me shiver in recognition of the brutal selling techniques some americans have. Most of the times my postings are exactly what I think is happening, however, sometimes I try a post just to get some answers or contrary vieuws. I must admit that most of the time I'm disappointed in the lack of critisism by other readers. I'm not here to prove my vieuw. I just try to check if I'm still on the right trail, and sometimes to inform others what I think is the right way of looking at things. In the long run you filter out the posters that are putting in some effort of their own, and the rest that only try to get a free lunch. Conclusion: I will go on and keep smiling.

Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Ach als ge moar leut Heb

Pacito,

Your views are very much appreciated and I do pick up your challenge when appropriate to define the reverse, basically Technical Analysis offers fundaments for any direction and movement, it’s the challenge to filter out the ones that are more relevant than the others. In this respect Brown offers a starting point to what is being called the New School of Technical Analysis but I can’t stress enough that it’s just a start. For the mere consumers as apposed to the contributors there is a lot of hard work involved and I notice that the few people that are doing the hard work are reluctant to share the fruits of their hard labor.

It’s completely in line with one of last century’s great traders philosophies that the goodies should not be handed on a silver platter the extreme fulfillment is in the discovering and therefore understanding including the developing of new routes to accomplishment. I must admit that I have grown to appreciate this extraordinary and I can now more understand the frustration by the individual non-adept. It’s too easy however to throw away the bits and peaces one does not understand and totally unacceptable is to label it as not working or worse.

One of the new routes I am traveling is anticipating on the next turn simply because it is extremely profitable and does in fact meets my number one trading rule in combination with the identification of the ideal entry point. So a trend is my friend but when a trend has come to the end of it’s potential I look out for a new trend to become my friend. Simply because I feel I can still grow as a trader who provides his own Analysis for trading and last but not least it proves to be extremely profitable.

Time to play a bit and since our favorite lady Astro Guru has been so wrong for so long let’s take a look at her latest view. Her thing now is that we can go up but also down and forget about the cycle thing she doesn’t understand and will not learn. So January 20th is the day to focus on because a number of planets are in the sign Sagittarius and that is positive while it lasts and Mars will move away from Sagittarius on the 20th next month.

In order for you to see for yourselves I have made an AEX chart with grey bars where planets are in Sagittarius. The larger the bars are the more planets are in Sagittarius. I can’t help myself it’s absolutely fun but the conclusion that Astro and Cycle Analysis do not work are false just the analyst sucks. If we just look at some 30 years of AEX data what the Mars Uranus square did we simply see in the chart that the main negative influence is actually before the event and therefore the Astro Vamp is like mustard after the meal once again.

Keep up the good work!

PS How are you doing on your Gann work, it has been quiet for quite a while?!

 

[Pacito]

Clown,
Gann???? Well I started experimenting with it, also in combination with fibonacci ratios. I think I messed up things a little bit because at some moment I could no longer see the difference between Gann and Fibonacci anymore. So I went back to the 90 and 144 squares. I look more and more to the original Gann Wheel. It seems to me that Gann and Fibonacci stand like regular and logarithmic scales to each other. To me 23rd of January seems an important date. As things stand now, I couldn't say if there will be a postive or a negative turn that day. It all depends on what's happening before that date. There is also a possible turn next week. As I see it now, that should be a negative one. So I keep in mind that the negative turn stays there untill about the 23rd of January. Then an upturn untill the the first week of March. If things turn out to be different, the whole scenario could be the other way around. But this is the way I plotted the next three months.

I wish you wisdom and peace of mind,
Pacito

 

[Blinker]

Dear readers and writers,

First of all I want to reply on Pacito's post. I thought when You (= multiple) see a picture with two div. oscillators there would tinkle a bell.... Clown's right, I'm trying to create the Composite index. It's not exactly the same as Brown's. The picture is a frase of the S&P in 1998 described in the book. That's all.

This is my latest creation. It's the hourly AEX with both RSI and (my) Composite index. I know, it's a busy one. I'm not sure which lines to delete. Most of them have a meaning as in support or resistance.

I want to wish You all a merry Christmas and a happy new year.

Blinker

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Ik zie een ster.. hij staat nog ver... maar strakjes komt hij dichterbij

Let’s have a closer look at what Mars in Sagittarius means in the AEX performance; so first figure is the overview with the actual events in 30 year’s of AEX data, than the present one in full glory and each next one is the one before. No I did not do them all one might get the message just looking at these ones. The blond Vamp who only translates a US weekly uses that as an overlay on the AEX without considering that the AEX is a different index on a different continent with a different currency. My primary objection is to expose that she does not add anything at all and since she has been so wrong for so long discredits the financial astro analysis in such a way that nobody can obtain an open mind. So before you state that Mars in Sagittarius implies that a “top” is being formed before January 20th when Mars leaves Sagittarius why don’t you look at the actual facts.

 

[gogo27]

Good Afternoon Gentlemen !

I'm surprised to see some activity on this forum lately... I'm wondering wich elements Blinker is putting in his composite index...
Dear Clown, I have quit the gann trading techniques for the moment...I'm focusing on the cycles...In the mean time I have developped a mechanical system based on the trading rules of the turtles...The results are promising...but it has nothing to do with trading of course...daily...it is more swing trading...
May be I will give some info after the holyseason...on the IEX if you don't mind...
My latest study shows that P.58 is in force for the moment on the daily...but some are looking for a SHS...as you said before...This time of the year can be full of surprises...but in my self , i'm not convinced
so far...
And this EUR/USD business...I found a strange chart to(o) ...see at your convenience www.tigersharktrading.com...

Dear Pacito,
Can you remember me your analogical past charts about the fluctuation of the AEX ...may be we can learn something about the history...as you know history does not repeat herself, she stutters..

Whishing everybody here a nice Xmas...

Greatings

Didi

 

[gogo27]

Well, well...my words were not even cold...

 

[Blinker]

Nog wat lijntjes

Hello again,

There's something else I'm trying to figure out. She mentioned something about crossing lines. When lines are crossing You can expect some support or resistance. Well, just look at the picture....
It's the Dutch AEX with the RSI and alternative Comp. Where more than two lines cross there is a turningpoint and where div. osc lines cross there are also turning points......

Next crossing lines are the 27th. But there is a little bug, because my chart expect some trading with X-mas. Probable day friday the 29th?

Happy trading....

 

[Pacito]

Good Afternoon Gentlemen !

Dear Pacito,
Can you remember me your analogical past charts about the fluctuation of the AEX ...may be we can learn something about the history...as you know history does not repeat herself, she stutters..

Whishing everybody here a nice Xmas...

Greatings

Didi

I'm sorry but I seem to miss what you mean. "analogical past charts about the fluctuation of the AEX"? If I,m not carefull I,m drowning in the charts. I use a certain amount of matrixes that can't be projected in the same chart because it would be undecipherable. So I scan all those matrixes to see if they are pointing the same way. And of course I remember you.
If you want me to publish a certain chart, please be more specific.
Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Vandaag is rood... raar he.. toch maar anticiperen

Let’s do a new hobby and see if the three attachments ring a bell.

Have a nice Christmas.



EDIT:

Okay ------ Okay… I won’t keep you in apprehension any longer than necessary since you probably like the Circus here will have a Christmas drink, here is how the AEX looks like in the above theory.

Have a good one Cheers.


EDIT2:

Let’s look at today’s candle and conclude that it is a long black fellow so what we would be looking for next trading day, that will be Wednesday, is a doji to confirm. And well what can I say just anticipating an other turn again and that’s the one already been anticipated looking at RSI patterns.

There is a lot of anticipating going on and I love each and every bit of it.

that should be K.I.S.S. didi?!

 

[gogo27]

Dear Clown

I like your philosophy : K I S !

GRS

Didi

(Keep it simple)

@ Pacito

I'm confused, I think that I'm thinking about somebody else on the IEX...

Nevertheless have a nice holiday...

GRS


Didi

 

[Pacito]

What about Clowns yearly for 2007?
Have a good and prosperous year.
Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Fijne jaarwisseling.... er is weer meer dan voldoende champagne

Pacito,

The year 2006 has been exceptionally profitable trading to win for me and I have learned quite a lot as well. The GJN outlook that was made end of 2005 did not include 478,44 did not meet 3xx and the 512 before the end of the year so the critics might have some food for thought. The good news though is that I fully understand how this outlook has been constructed and therefore can adjust my own trading as I did this year. Even with additional techniques the quality of the outlook has been improved and I can now make my own outlook for 2007 and beyond.

To get some perspective for things I have made a Long Term DJIA chart. Well what can I say you are looking at more than 100 years of stock market performance in it’s full glory. As by the great trader W.D. Gann explained one needs to prepare for trading in order to be successful so quite a bit of effort has to be put into a form of Cycle Analysis. Doing the work one obtains a roadmap for trading and like the GJN outlook it has to be checked frequently in order to become Trades to Win.

The in the above post given signals are still as valid as they were when given so the next stock market move might not come to you as a surprise.

 

[Pacito]

Clown,
another interesting image. Just look what it is about. Focus on the percentages and compare it to a suitable index. I'm not referring to cause and effect, for I don't know which is which. But the relationship might give an early or extra signal.
Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Voor een ieder alles wat wenselijk is voor 2007.

Pacito,

Without a shadow of a doubt you are the one that digs into charts to find the ones in the past that do look like ones that might be the ones presenting the future. In the 2007 roadmap preparation I came across a chart that I just have to show you and I have included the axes for you as well so you might be struck by the Y axe values.

Happy trading.

 

[Pacito]

Dear Clown,
I'm amazed how you can put my thoughts in such clear candlesticks. Move the axe ten points and we have a marvelous description of what seems to happen 50 years later. He 50. Do I know that number? It becomes a matter of adding the signs. And you know the way I'm adding, 1 1 2 3 5 8 enz. There's something rotten in the kingdom of Denmark.
Pacito

 

[7mountains]

tiedes

clown
what is a GJN outlook?
also i/m impressed by such a mavellous grafic.
I suppose you are traden gann's rules?

 

[Blinker]

Lijnen

Dear traders 2 win,

First of all, I wish everybody a happy and a profitable new year.

Last week I throw You a picture of crossing lines. I spoke about an bug, well that one is gone. So I made a new picture. It is the Dutch 240 min. AEX. The far right line gave support at the end of last year. That's picture one.

2th one
This is the same chart without the lines. I have inserted al lot of the same fibo's. They are exactly the same. Look how they all come back.
The increase in November is 3.618
GJN spoke this morning about "klap en flap". Look at the end of oct and the first week of nov..... I think the first target is the 1.618 which is at 503. Well the picture speaks for itself.


Blinker