Brexit and the Consequences

mike. said:
Iv'e just come across this. Sums up the situation. I feel were at that point now where anything remainers say will be disregarded by brexiteers and vice versa, But anyway...





There are now seven weeks to go until the UK is due to leave the EU, and things are getting messier and angrier by the day. Well, there’s a surprise.
Faced with Mrs May’s request from the British parliament to compromise on the Irish backstop, as a result of which it might then agree to a deal, the EU told the UK to go to hell.
Donald Tusk, the EU Council president, observed on Twitter: “I’ve been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely.”
To which the EU’s Brexit co-ordinator Guy Verhofstadt added: “I doubt Lucifer would welcome them, as after what they did to Britain they would even manage to divide Hell.”
The European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has said the backstop cannot be replaced; Martin Selmayr, chief of the EU civil service, said Mrs May’s request wasn’t even being considered.
Such arrogant and contemptuous bullying has enraged even some Remainers. Just who do they think they are, people are fuming. Well, this is what they are, and this is why the UK wants to leave the EU.
In accordance with their customary Mafia-style tactics, the Eurocrats believe they have made the UK an offer it cannot refuse. All that’s needed now is for Mrs May to wake up in Downing Street to find a dismembered leg in her bed shod in a leopard-print shoe.
This EU reaction was always entirely predictable. As Fraser Nelson says in today’s Telegraph, its leaders think they must demonstrate that leaving the EU entails unbearable agony. This is because they are all too aware that in several member states, more and more people are expressing a fervent desire to leave. To nip this in the bud, the EU cannot let the UK be seen to prosper from Brexit.
The inescapable implication of that, however, is that they know the UK will indeed prosper. Predictions by the Bank of England and other solidly Remainer institutions that a vote for Brexit would cause the economy to collapse have proved to date spectacularly wrong.
Now the Bank’s same forecasting geniuses have downgraded its growth forecast for 2019 from 1.7 per cent to 1.2 per cent. But although the Bank’s Governor, Mark Carney, repeatedly warns against a no-deal Brexit, he has acknowledged that the downgrade is due to a slowing global economy as well as Brexit uncertainty.
As he said: “The fog of Brexit is causing short-term volatility in the economic data and, more fundamentally, it’s creating a series of tensions.” And the Bank added: “The economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal, in particular the new trading arrangements between the EU and the UK, whether the transition to them is abrupt or smooth, and how households, businesses and financial markets respond.”
Quite. The fact is that no-one knows what’s going to happen; and financial markets hate uncertainty above all else. But it stands to reason that, notwithstanding some unavoidable problems and shocks along the way, the world’s fifth largest economy will, when freed of its EU shackles, ultimately do well.
Only last month, Carney told the Commons Treasury Select Committee: “Financial stability risks around [the EU exit] process are greater on the continent than they are in the UK. There is a tremendous financial services capacity in Britain and even though there will be shortfalls at the point of leaving [depending on the exit arrangement], these are more likely to affect Europe”.
You bet. The EU is currently staring at its own increasing political and economic wreckage. The Eurozone has been given an economic downgrade. The German economy is poised at the edge of recession. In France, the self-styled heir to Napoleon and Jupiter, President Emmanuel Macron, has failed to quash the “yellow vests” uprising and is quarrelling with Italy and Germany. The upcoming EU elections may return a slew of eurosceptic commissioners and bring the agenda of “ever-closer union” to a juddering halt.
And Brexit could deliver in addition a possibly fatal wounding blow.
The Eurocrats’ strategy rests on their belief that the UK will be so frightened by leaving with no deal that at the last minute parliament will cave in and vote to support the deal the EU brokered with Mrs May.
Some believe that prospect has improved with the olive branch offered to Mrs May by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, in the form of a set of “compromise” conditions on the basis of which Labour would support her deal.
As has been widely observed, it’s hard to see how this could happen since he is sticking to Labour’s insistence that after Brexit there must be a customs union arrangement with the EU – which means not leaving EU control at all.
Some, though, think that enough “soft” Labour Brexiteers will want to accept this compromise, enabling Mrs May to isolate the true Brexiteers in parliament and thus get her deal through.
But that would mean Mrs May suddenly forgetting what she has understood all along in having made a customs union/single market her red lines. This is that Brexiteers know these options would clearly negate the referendum result; and then they would never vote Conservative again and the party might even break apart altogether.
As March 29 approaches, the British should have one thing in mind above all: that the EU are digging in like this because they are terrified of Brexit. And the reason for that is that if Britain leaves the EU, not through Mrs May’s Brexit-in-name-only-Remain-by-stealth deal but through a clear, undeniable, unequivocal departure, the EU knows this will accelerate its own disintegration while it watches the UK start to prosper.
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Yep that just about sums it up. They forgot to mention that they need us more than we need them, which is as true today as it was when that claim was made 3 years ago.
 
barjon said:
Maybe, but in general I feel much more culturally at home in western Europe than in USA (for example).
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I think we pretty much all think this except to say that we would prefer it if each of the European countries kept their identities as opposed to this centralised nonsensical experiment that they are ploughing on with.

As far as the USA is concerned, I'm no fan of doing any sort of trade deal with them. I can't see much upside in that kind of arrangement, but there would be lots of potential for downside.
 
I have doubts that Farage can get together another Brexit party in time.
Without another referendum it wouldn't really matter anyway.
 
counter_violent said:
I think we pretty much all think this except to say that we would prefer it if each of the European countries kept their identities as opposed to this centralised nonsensical experiment that they are ploughing on with.

Have to disagree with you on that – can only speak for myself but I feel much more culturally in common with Americans and I find that unsurprising seeing as one of the reasons the founders departed England was due to the imposition and enforcement a new religious/political regime.

As far as the USA is concerned, I'm no fan of doing any sort of trade deal with them. I can't see much upside in that kind of arrangement, but there would be lots of potential for downside.

As in all trade deals there is scope for screwup but at least we would have the choice provided we have the right people leading.
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It all comes down to leadership in the end – It's a shame there isn't any!
 
Pat494 said:
I have doubts that Farage can get together another Brexit party in time.
Without another referendum it wouldn't really matter anyway.
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Word on the street is that it's already financed and organised.
 
Farage for PM (y)


Should be a jolly good show!

I hear his now directed his gob to the unelected HoLs. Same old tosh. :unsure:
 
Pat494 said:
I have doubts that Farage can get together another Brexit party in time.
Without another referendum it wouldn't really matter anyway.
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The whole point of any new Brexit party is to be ready for any European elections in May. If May kicks any deal down the road and we get an extension, then it follows that we will need representatives in the EU parliament.

As far as I can see, there's bugger all chance of another Brexit referendum, or for that matter, a peoples vote on any deal. If politicians have learned one thing from all this........never ask the people what they think, cos they might just tell you and you might not like the answer. :LOL:
 
Germany is going to get very frustrated by the useless Socialist states sponging off them.
Then what ?
A crack in the door for the extreme rightists ?
The workshy Spanish could expand their old people's retirement in the sun opportunities with not much effort.
 
mike. said:
Not a fan then ?
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This man's solution to UK departure of the EU was to adopt a Norwegian model of EU,
Leave EU to concentrate on trade with Commonwealth,
If he is ever elected to be PM, he wants to scrap the unelected HoLs and replace with what?

Some people say he was a successful businessman and trader before he became MEP. He talks a good shop but have you really looked at what he wants to do, the how, the why?

I have asked before what has he delivered other than pure criticism and mayhem?

When he did finally realise his dream of winning the referendum which was an equeal SHOCK to him, what does he do?

Resigns post to say his tired and takes another talk the hind legs of a donkey LBC radio show.


I sincerely think people need to do a double-take on Farage. He is an opportunist. Not a leader. He stirs and delivers nothing.

:unsure:
 
mike. said:
Iv'e just come across this. Sums up the situation. I feel were at that point now where anything remainers say will be disregarded by brexiteers and vice versa, But anyway...
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Hi Mike - where's this article from?
 
timsk said:
Hi Mike - where's this article from?
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Wherever it’s from it wasn’t written by a remainer :D
Pat494 said:
Germany is going to get very frustrated by the useless Socialist states sponging off them.
Then what ?
A crack in the door for the extreme rightists ?
The workshy Spanish could expand their old people's retirement in the sun opportunities with not much effort.
Click to expand...

No, it’s a price worth them paying in return for the advantages they get from a hugely undervalued currency. Imagine what the Deutschmark / drachma exchange rate would be - I doubt it would be parity as the euro makes it.
 
0007 said:
I see that Project Fear has wheeled out Tony Blair today. With his reputation for telling the truth why would anyone take notice of what he has to say?
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When the Brexit dust has started to settle and I mount my coup d'état ( a People's Coup, of course!) and we start the Great Cull of the Thieves and Wasters in Parliament, the roll of honour for the firing squads will have Tony Blair at the top of all the lists. I'd like to think that after a not too lengthy manhunt he'll be found lurking in a sewer, denounced by one of the people he pretended to speak for.

As they used to say "Shootin's too good for him".....I believe we still make good quality piano wire in what remains of our industrial areas.
 
Pat494 said:
. . .The workshy Spanish could expand their old people's retirement in the sun opportunities with not much effort.
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Hi Pat,
I think you're labouring under a common misapprehension about the Spanish being work shy. I think this stems mainly from from their midday siesta. Many of them work in conditions and temperatures that would - quite literally - kill me if I had to do it. (I'm thinking of construction work and other hard manual labour.) The Spanish are many things, but workshy ain't one of them. While I'm about it, another misapprehension is the 'mañana syndrome'. Completely false. I've travelled by train a lot in Spain and their service knocks spots of any UK provider - bang on time every time - and relatively cheap too.
Tim.
 
I rather agree with this: https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk...ners-and-plan-for-no-deal/#comment-4331963398

"Ravenscar • 2 hours ago
this isn't my comment (below) but very much in tune with my thinking, it synopsizes the choice although, of course imo: there is no choice - but OUT!

Let’s make no mistake – with the clock ticking down to 29th March, we have finally arrived at an existential turning point for both the United Kingdom and the European Union. Talk of compromises and cross-party consensus and some kind of semantic fudge that will make the Brexit-negating Withdrawal Agreement pass the Commons at the third attempt is a painful distraction from harsh political and historic realities.

Both the UK and the EU still face a stark binary choice, whether all parties acknowledge it or not. Leave or Remain. Double or quits. In or out. Sitting on the Brexit fence while making the right noises to the right people, in the hope that this decision can be delayed or permanently taken off the political agenda,is an abdication of responsibility that will soon no longer be an option.
For the UK, the choice can be summarised as one between democracy and permanent second-class statehood; freedom to hire and fire the people who make the laws we have to obey and pay for, or the triumph of pessimism due to the mistaken and craven belief that we aren’t mature and sensible enough to run our own affairs, and must cleave to a supranational body with minimal democratic legitimacy because we are too insignificant to defend our right to democratic self-government.

Remainers trying to subvert the referendum result by locking the UK into the EU, even as we are supposedly leaving it, have completely missed the point of the Leave vote. It was a vote of confidence in Great Britain and its institutions, flawed or otherwise. It was a vote by optimists, by people who believe in the regenerative, sometimes messy but always liberating, principle of democracy – which is that you make your own mistakes, and if you don’t like the way the ship of state is run, you chuck out the government and give someone else a turn at the wheel. There are ups and downs, but you always have a choice. And that choice is precious.

People across the world have died in countless wars to be able to have such a choice. It is sad indeed that many of the guardians of this ancient, disruptive, rambunctious democracy of ours are so afraid of it that they dare not stand up for it. Indeed, they would rather abolish it and have us ruled by an unelected European Commission, which continues to assume with Ancien Régime arrogance that the British people can be made to vote as many times as necessary until they sign up to the European Project. One might say when hell freezes over, but one hates to employ such clichés. Except when they are true.

Staying in a customs union with the EU, accepting close regulatory alignment with the EU, joining an EU army with imperial ambitions (as outlined recently by the French), allowing the EU to decide on vast areas of policy-making – as the Withdrawal Agreement does – is not only not Brexit and a failure to deliver on the referendum result. It is to collude in the death of functioning, open, plural democracy, which is the only safeguard against dictatorship.

So the choice is clear: a Brexit that restores supreme law-making powers to the UK, or the triumph of technocracy and the enforcement by a foreign court of perpetual protectionist mediocrity, to ensure that no member state of the EU is ever independent enough to question the power exercised by an unelected Politburo in Brussels, whose mission is to create the United States of Europe, by fair means or foul.

One country’s upsurge of democracy, of course, can be another’s constitutional catastrophe. For the EU, Brexit is no less of an existential issue. That the second largest financial contributor and the oldest democracy in the EU voted to leave is a damning indictment of the political failure that has marked the European Project in the last twenty years. The fury and insults heaped upon Britain after the referendum testify to the total incomprehension of the EU’s political class when confronted with legitimate dissent.

And that nothing has changed since 23rd June 2016 is evidenced by the ludicrous stories peddled by Project Fear in recent days… Apparently the Queen is to be evacuated if we leave the EU on WTO terms. Given that Her Majesty produces much of her own food on her own land, one wonders where she might go to avoid “the cliff-edge” if the Roquefort doesn’t show up in time for the cheese course. We hear that a third of UK businesses are thinking of relocating to the EU, only to see that the poll conducted by the IoD was of a tiny percentage of its members. Another headline claims that a majority of Chief Finance Officers believe that the UK will be worse off after Brexit – a majority of just one hundred CFOs surveyed by Deloitte. None of these surveys takes into account that a sovereign Britain can take whatever legislative and fiscal measures it deems fit to ensure that goods flow into this country unfettered and that our economy continues not only to function normally, but to thrive.

This acceleration of Project Fear in the media strengthens the belief that there will be no meaningful concessions on the Withdrawal Agreement before the next debate in the Commons. Indeed, EU leaders have repeatedly said that they will not reopen the legal text. Michel Barnier therefore has no mandate other than to listen politely to the Prime Minister and say no.
The EU will try until the bitter end to ram its appalling deal down our throats, because the slightest sign that it is willing to agree a pragmatic, mutually beneficial trade relationship with a former member state will be seen as a green light for other eurosceptic members to flex their muscles and stand up to the Franco-German juggernaut that intends to sweep them up in its imperial embrace.

The ‘Malthouse Compromise’ recently floated by a group of Tory MPs is likely to be shot down in flames – if indeed it is even tabled for discussion by Theresa May. Whatever she may
propose to break the impasse, negotiators in Brussels must cling to their position – that a centralised technocratic EU superstate is the ineluctable future.

It is, of course, the past: an attempt to create by red tape and judicial takeover what has not been possible to achieve through centuries of warfare. But it is hard-wired into the EU’s DNA, and it is a question of survival. For them a no-deal Brexit will be preferable to any ‘deal’ that fails to put Britain on the naughty step and keep it there until it begs to be let back into the
nursery.

To EU or not to EU, that remains the question. "

Hmm, I can read some of my influence in that [;)] .......actually, these are the words of a rather articulate and thoughtful civil servant - writing in Brexit Central - link
 
counter_violent said:
[B]Michael Hewson 🇬🇧[/B]‏ @[B]mhewson_CMC[/B]
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Whatever your views on Brexit the fact is that UK economy still grew faster in second half of 2018, than Germany, France and Italy, but hey Brexit uncertainty blah....
10:02 AM - 11 Feb 2019
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Sooooo.... the economy grew because we're still in the EU?....or because we're on the point of leaving the EU?....or it has nothing at all to do with being in or out of the EU??:p
 
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